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Many places in the south have been hit by continuous super heavy rains, why is this year's "plum rain" so violent?

author:Mizukisha

The Qiantang River is full, and the majestic Zhijiang Bridge is now close to the water, and there is only a line of sky between the bridge and the water.

Huizhou dwellings with small bridges and flowing water, pink walls and tiles in Chengkan Ancient Town, the turbid yellow river water is like wild horses galloping in the river trough. Surprisingly, the water passing through the arch bridge was not hindered, which shows that the ancients also suffered from floods, and the stone bridge was designed to not block the water. Under the heavy rain, the residents of the ancient town lost the calmness of "washing vegetables upstream and washing in the downstream".

Many places in the south have been hit by continuous super heavy rains, why is this year's "plum rain" so violent?

The drainage system of the ancient town (source video screenshot)

In a small town in southern Anhui, the flood washed open the roller shutter doors of villagers' small buildings, and cars floated in the torrent. The flood was rushing and the excavator was almost submerged, but with the high exhaust pipe, it miraculously rescued the trapped men and women in the muddy water.

The rain has been falling, and this year, the sky in the south seems to be leaking, and it is constantly being hit by the rain. The water level in Wuhan has risen by 5 meters in less than 10 days, and has crossed 25 meters for the first time in three years, and waterlogging has occurred in parts of the city. Guilin, Guangxi Province was hit by torrential rains in mid-June, and the water level of Guilin on the Lijiang River exceeded the warning water level by nearly 3 meters, exceeding the water level of the Lijiang River flood in 1998.

Many places in the south have been hit by continuous super heavy rains, why is this year's "plum rain" so violent?

Guilin, Guangxi Province hit the biggest flood since 1998, exceeding the alert water level of 2.88 meters (Visual China)

The most shocking images appeared in the Qiantang River basin. The walls of Quzhou Shuitingmen have collapsed, and the Fuchun River, which flows through Fuyang City, has risen to the embankment, and part of Fuyang has been soaked in water. Residents on a number of sand islands on the Fuchun River also began to move, and the houses on the islands were soon flooded with floodwater, revealing only their roofs.

The Xin'anjiang Reservoir is releasing water, from a single hole to five holes to seven holes, and back to five holes, because the downstream is already overwhelmed. When the clear water of Qiandao Lake gushed out from the gate, at first everyone joked that hundreds of thousands of bottles of Nongfu Spring were released every second, but later they were worried that the water would be too strong and the downstream city of Hangzhou would be in danger. However, I also saw netizens cheering everyone up, "Don't be afraid, Hangzhou's river embankments are designed according to the combination of storm surge and flood, and the standard of sea ponds." Waterlogging is still possible at the point of occurrence, but it is impossible for the urban area to have a major flood."

This is the first time in four years that the Xin'anjiang Reservoir has opened its flood gates. The Qiantang River basin was hit by catastrophic floods, the last time was in 2020. In the rainy season that year, the Qiantang River basin suffered the strongest plum flood in history, the Xin'an River reservoir poured into the sudden flow, the water flow jumped from 2,000 cubic meters / second to 10,000 cubic meters / second in 2 hours, the flood discharge had to be from 3 holes to 5 holes to 7 holes, and finally opened to 9 holes for the first time, the sluice gate was opened in one day, and the water of Qiandao Lake poured out. At that time, the amount of precipitation in the reservoir area, the water level of the reservoir, the number of gates opened, and the amount of flood discharge set four records. The discharge lasted 173 hours, with a total outflow of 3.39 billion cubic meters, putting unprecedented pressure on the lower reaches of the Qiantang River.

Many places in the south have been hit by continuous super heavy rains, why is this year's "plum rain" so violent?

Xin'anjiang Reservoir Seven-hole Flood Discharge (Visual China)

In that case, why not vacate the storage capacity early to cope with the possible plum flood? If we know the original intention of the construction of Qiandao Lake, that is, the Xin'an River Reservoir, we can also understand the good intentions of the water conservancy department. Completed in 1959, the Xin'anjiang Reservoir has a storage capacity of 21.6 billion cubic meters, making it the largest reservoir in East China. In terms of storage capacity, it is on par with the Three Gorges Reservoir and the Danjiangkou Reservoir, and is responsible for providing drinking water for many cities in the Yangtze River Delta. In order to protect water quality, strict environmental protection measures have been implemented in the upper reaches of the Xin'an River in the southern Anhui basin, restricting the construction of mines and factories. Even so, it is impossible to let go of precious water sources as a last resort.

In fact, Hangzhou City does not have to worry. The city is located on the coastal plain, the Hangzhou Bay horn mouth spreads, facing the sea, and the Qiantang River upstream of the water, no matter how much water comes here, it will be unloaded by the giant water outlet, which is the unique advantage of the coastal city. The cities in the Yangtze River Delta are very low in altitude, only single digits, and they are located on the seashore, with vertical and horizontal ditches and dense river networks, which have the characteristics of a water city, and can be called a maritime city in terms of drainage. This is different from inland cities, for example, although Wuhan is called the city of a thousand lakes, there are hundreds of large and small lakes in the urban area, and the Yangtze River flood has encountered a flood of the Yangtze River, and the flood seems to be temporarily stored in the lake, but the water storage of the lake is limited after all, and when the Yangtze River is overflowing, Wuhan will still be a piece of water when the drainage is not smooth.

Many places in the south have been hit by continuous super heavy rains, why is this year's "plum rain" so violent?

Topographic map of Hangzhou (source network)

Of course, in recent years, the great development of urban construction has expanded to the underground, and there are more and more underground spaces such as subways and underground garages.

But even so, the water surface of the lake is almost level with the shore, and the water has poured into the residential area, forcing it to drain water with high-pressure water cannons. A vast cloud of smoke and rain shrouded Hangzhou, and the citizens of Hangzhou began to worry that the flood would overflow Jinshan again.

As a year when El Niño has just exited, this year is flooded in the south and drought in the north, and the uneven precipitation is unusually prominent. The southern sky seems to be leaking, and the rain never stops, and the torrential rain is especially intense. The rainy season in Lingnan, Guangdong, Guangxi, has finally passed, and the subtropical high pressure belt jumps northward, and the rain belt jumps from the southern coast to the Yangtze River basin, and the plum rainy season begins. But this rainy season is not like the "moldy" rain in the inherent impression - continuous light rain, even cloudy rain, everything is shrouded in damp rain and fog, the temperature is high, the humidity is high, and the food and even the clothes are moldy. This time, however, the rainy season was violent, with a light rain and a downpour. On weekdays, the high temperature and humidity of bedding heat and dampness are slightly cold and cool under the pouring of heavy rain. Just like the rainy season in Guangzhou, the sun is still a scarce commodity in the rainy season in the Yangtze River Basin. People are fantasizing about the freedom of underwear, the clothes can never be dried, and the feeling of dampness and mold permeates the surroundings, and there is no escape.

The following year of El Niño, the western Pacific subtropical high, which plays a major role in the continental climate, was more westerly and more solid. On the real-time global atmospheric circulation map, we can see that the water vapor from the Pacific Ocean flows continuously along the western margin of the subtropical high towards China, encounters an equally strong cold air mass south of the Yangtze River, and then turns in a perfect arc to merge with the westerly wind belt in the upper air and flow back to the ocean. The cold and warm air converge in a straight, narrow linear area from Hunan to northern Zhejiang, which has become a dense area of heavy rain, thunder and lightning, and strong air convection.

Many places in the south have been hit by continuous super heavy rains, why is this year's "plum rain" so violent?

National precipitation forecast map released by China Meteorological on June 29 (Source: China Weather)

For example, the rainfall in some parts of Changsha exceeded 70 mm in one hour, reaching the level of extremely heavy rainfall, and 54 West Lake water fell in one hour. What is the concept of 70 mm of precipitation, Changsha is a subtropical climate, abundant precipitation, the average annual precipitation is about 1400 mm, the heavy rain during the plum rainy period, an hour fell 5% of the annual rainfall. Looking at the rainfall in southern Anhui after the plum blossom in the first and middle of June, the heavy rainfall in many places in Anhui from June 18 to 19, there were 163 stations with rainfall of more than 100 mm, and the 6-hour rainfall in Huangshan District, Huangshan City, was 89.2 mm. This is the reason for the flood in the ancient villages of southern Anhui. On June 23, Huangshan City was hit by heavy rain again, and in She County, the Lianjiang River flooded into the urban area, and the urban area fell into waterlogging. And this is the reason for the flood discharge of the seven holes of the Xin'an River.

Rain bands are not static. A major flood broke out in Meizhou, Guangdong, with a water head 3 meters high, overwhelming more than 100,000 people, many people died, and many people lost contact.

After several days of heavy rain in Hunan, the water of Dongting Lake rose, and there was no end in sight, and Poyang Lake, which had once exposed the bottom of the lake and turned into a prairie, was full of water again. The so-called "there is hunger in the world, and the trip to heaven is also, and Yu and soup are carried out". In the monsoon country, and growing in the midst of global warming, heavy rains and winds are also a part of our lives.

Many places in the south have been hit by continuous super heavy rains, why is this year's "plum rain" so violent?

The current situation of the rising water in Dongting Lake (source video screenshot)

Will this violent rainy season turn into a major flood in the Yangtze River basin and return to 1998? Probably not, after all, the violent rainy season only occurs south of the Yangtze River, often in a narrow strip of land, and there are no signs of flooding in the entire Yangtze River basin. As for what will happen during the main flood season in July and August, we have to wait and see.

According to the Ministry of Water Resources, the No. 1 flood of the Yangtze River has been formed this year, which is worrying!