This year, domestic gasoline and diesel prices showed an "N" shaped trend of rising first and then falling again, before April, oil prices rose as a whole, 4-6 months as a whole, 3 of the 4 adjustments, the latest adjustment, on June 28, oil prices rose again, after the adjustment, the price of gasoline at the gas station 92 was 7.98 yuan, and the price of 95 gasoline was 8.56 yuan. On June 20, the price of gasoline in various regions was 7.98 yuan and 8.56 yuan for No. 92 gasoline in Shandong, 8.07 yuan and 8.72 yuan for No. 95 gasoline in Guangxi, 8.04 yuan for No. 92 gasoline and 8.71 yuan for No. 95 gasoline in Guangdong.
Compared with mid-June, domestic gasoline prices have risen by nearly 0.2 yuan in 10 days, and it costs more than 8 yuan to fill up a 50-liter fuel tank. The rise in oil prices is due to the increase in crude oil demand in Europe and the United States as they enter the summer travel season, coupled with the decline in US crude oil and refined product inventories, which makes investors optimistic about the outlook for energy demand. The second is because the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks have reached an impasse, and the conflict between Israel and Lebanese Allah has also escalated, and geopolitical risks are at a premium. The third is that OPEC+ has extended its production cuts by 2 million barrels per day until the end of 2025 and by 2.2 million barrels per day until the end of September this year.
Domestically, affected by the decline in the overall operating rate of refineries, the supply of gasoline and diesel in the market has been further tightened, and the summer vacation has officially entered in July, which has ushered in a domestic peak, and the shipments of the main units have increased, and gasoline and diesel prices have begun to rebound.
Judging from the current situation, the international crude oil market is intertwined with multiple benefits, and the international crude oil price is likely to rise further in the current high position, entering the 14th round of oil price adjustment cycle for one working day, Brent crude oil prices rose to 84.81 US dollars, the comprehensive rate of change of international crude oil is 1.61%, and the price of gasoline and diesel is expected to rise again by 80 yuan / ton.
At 24 o'clock on July 11, domestic oil prices will undergo a new round of price adjustments, and domestic oil prices are likely to usher in "two consecutive rises", and the price of No. 92 gasoline may return to the "8 yuan level".
This week, the price of domestic broiler chickens fluctuated and adjusted, the average price of slow national chickens was 9.07 yuan, compared with last week, the average price of medium national chickens was 6.62 yuan, down 0.11 yuan from last week, and the average price of fast national chickens was 6.3 yuan, down 0.04 yuan from last week. The average purchase price of white-feathered broilers in front of the shed was 3.54 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.51%.
The decline in broiler prices is due to the fact that the current broiler production capacity is in a state of overcapacity, and the superimposed breeding link is worried about the future market, and the slaughter of chickens is more concentrated. The second is because of the poor terminal delivery, the product sales of sample enterprises in the first half of the year decreased by 19.93% year-on-year, the losses of slaughtering enterprises intensified, and the storage capacity rate of frozen products of enterprises increased, rising to 71.84%, and the enthusiasm of slaughtering enterprises in slaughtering and warehousing was not high, resulting in a decline in the enthusiasm of slaughtering enterprises to acquire. The price of broiler chickens continued to fall under the effect of two-way negative supply and demand.
Next, broiler prices are expected to stop falling and rebound, the recent rise in pig prices has driven pork prices to a stage high, consumers need a cheap meat alternative to pork, there is hope to drive chicken demand. And subsequently, affected by reduced production and high temperature weather, the number of broilers slaughtered will decline. It's just that the broiler market in July is affected by the sluggish demand for high-temperature meat, and it is likely to continue to be flat, and it is necessary to wait until August and October, when schools open and holidays arrive, to change the pattern of flat demand and promote prices.
In recent days, urea prices have performed strongly, and many places have ushered in a rising market, and the current average price of small granular urea has risen to 2346 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.69% compared with mid-June. This is mainly due to the increase in urea prices in mainstream regions such as Shandong, Henan, Anhui and Jiangsu.
In fact, there are not many negative factors in the urea market recently, the daily output of urea is maintained at a high level of 182,000 tons, and the agricultural demand is dispersed and stretched by the dry weather in East China, Jianghuai and other places. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has declined, and the procurement of urea is mainly based on rigid replenishment, and the enthusiasm for stocking is not high.
Under the background of multiple negative interweaving, domestic urea prices can still rise as a whole, firstly, because the current urea enterprises have a large number of pending orders, and enterprises are more willing to raise prices. Second, because of the impact of high temperature weather, the operating rate of urea factories has been limited, the failure rate of machines has increased, many enterprises have shut down for maintenance, and the daily output of urea has declined. Third, because the demand for compound fertilizer factories to replenish the warehouse is relatively stable, supporting the new order turnover of urea plants. Fourth, the news of India's bidding for urea has once again stimulated bullish sentiment in the market.
It is expected that in the future, urea prices will continue to operate strongly under the dual support of the downstream agricultural topdressing period and the replenishment of industrial rigid demand, and will be raised. However, the increase will be limited by the pressure from higher urea production.