Halfway through 2024, in the first half of the year, the real estate market has intensively ushered in a number of easing policies, and in the slow recovery market environment, the sales pattern of real estate companies has also ushered in new changes.
According to the data of the China Index Research Institute, in the first half of 2024, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies will be 2,083.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.6%, and the decline rate will continue to narrow by 3.8 percentage points compared with the previous month. Among them, there were 6 real estate companies with sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, a decrease of 1 from the same period last year, and 44 real estate enterprises with sales of 10 billion yuan, a decrease of 34 from the same period last year. The equity sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises were 1,464.16 billion yuan, and the equity sales area was 79.615 million square meters.
With the implementation of the package of real estate policies on May 17, it has a good role in boosting market confidence. Among them, the monthly sales of TOP100 real estate companies in June decreased by 19.55% year-on-year and increased by 26.05% month-on-month, both of which were better than those in May. Typical enterprises such as Greentown China, China Construction Yipin, Xingyao Real Estate Group, etc., have strong sales growth.
It is worth mentioning that the advantages of leading real estate companies continue. In the first half of 2024, Poly Development achieved sales of 173.3 billion yuan, ranking first; China Overseas Real Estate achieved sales of 148.3 billion yuan, ranking second; It was followed by Vanke with sales of 126.72 billion yuan. In the list of equity sales performance, the top three rankings are different, with China Overseas Real Estate ranking first with equity sales of 139.4 billion yuan; Poly Development is second, China Resources Land is third, and Vanke is fourth.
Interpretation of the list:
The camp adjustment continued, and there were 44 enterprises with sales of more than 10 billion yuan
The data shows that in the first half of 2024, the number of enterprises in the camp of more than 50 billion yuan has decreased. Specifically, there are 6 camps of more than 100 billion, a decrease of 1 from the same period last year. The average sales value was 133.08 billion yuan, the second camp (50 billion to 100 billion yuan) enterprises were 4, a decrease of 6 over the same period last year, and the average sales value was 57.78 billion yuan, the third camp (30 billion to 50 billion) enterprises were 6, a decrease of 10 over the same period last year, and the average sales value was 38.72 billion yuan, and the fourth camp (10 billion to 30 billion) enterprises were 28, a decrease of 17 over the same period last year, with an average sales value of 16.32 billion yuan.
At the same time, in the first half of the year, the sales of real estate companies in all camps declined. Among them, the average sales value of the top 10 real estate enterprises was 102.96 billion yuan, down 33.2% from the previous year; The average sales volume of the top 11-30 real estate enterprises was 25.95 billion yuan, down 46.9% from the previous year; The average sales value of the TOP31-50 real estate enterprises was 11.38 billion yuan, down 52.8% from the previous year; The average sales value of the TOP51-100 real estate enterprises was 6.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.7%.
While the overall sales declined, the completion rate of the sales target of real estate enterprises in the first half of the year was also unsatisfactory.
In the first half of 2024, from the perspective of the sales targets of typical real estate companies, only Yuexiu Real Estate and Tiandiyuan have increased their sales targets, and most of the remaining listed real estate companies have maintained the average level in recent years. In recent years, as the industry has entered a period of adjustment, more and more companies have stopped increasing sales targets and pursuing large-scale development, but have pursued more stable development by actively controlling sales scale.
According to the data, in the first half of 2023, the average target completion rate of typical real estate enterprises will be 41.5%, compared with 63.2% in the same period last year, and the target completion rate will be 21.6 percentage points lower. However, the industry expects that in the third quarter of 2024, the implementation of a package of real estate policies will boost market confidence, market activity will pick up, and the sales of real estate companies may improve.
Performance Dialysis:
Shanghai has the highest sales contribution rate, and Hangzhou ranks second
In terms of regions, in the first half of 2024, 54.0% of the sales performance of the 20 representative real estate companies came from second-tier cities, and the sales contribution rate of second-tier cities is still dominant.
In terms of subdivided cities, in the first half of 2024, the top three cities of the 20 representative real estate companies in terms of sales contribution are Shanghai, Hangzhou and Guangzhou, with sales contribution rates of 12.8%, 9.7% and 8.0% respectively. Compared with the same period in 2023, Shanghai's sales contribution rate continued to increase, increasing by 2.0 percentage points, the largest increase among the top 10 cities, while Hangzhou's sales contribution rate increased by 1.6 percentage points from the third in the same period of 2023, second only to Shanghai.
The China Index Research Institute believes that the real estate market is still in a period of deep adjustment, the core cities have shown strong resilience, and behind the support of the real estate market is the continuous strengthening of regional economic development potential and population adsorption.
From the perspective of specific cities, the four first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have obvious advantages in investment attractiveness; As a benchmark city for China's digital economy, Hangzhou has accelerated the cultivation of new drivers of industrial development, and its investment attractiveness has remained the fifth in the country for seven consecutive years. Chengdu, Suzhou, Nanjing, and Xi'an have large economies and populations, obvious industrial advantages, and strong market demand. Under the requirements of accelerating the construction of the linkage mechanism of "people, housing, land and money", the flow of population will truly determine the direction of future allocation of housing, land, capital and other resources. The first- and second-tier core cities have outstanding population attractiveness, continue to maintain net population growth, and the real estate market has long-term development space. At the same time, the core urban agglomeration/urban circle has a strong industrial foundation, and the strong fundamentals form an important support for the real estate market.
Looking ahead:
The effect of the policy is gradually effective, and the sales of real estate enterprises will improve
Since June, the regulatory authorities have continued to promote the implementation of the previous policies, and many places have continued to implement and optimize the property market policies. At the same time, driven by the mid-year performance sprint of real estate enterprises, the scale of new housing transactions in key cities in June rebounded compared with May, and at the same time, under the influence of the decline in the base, the year-on-year decline in June narrowed significantly.
From the perspective of market performance, the activity of the second-hand housing market remained at a high level, and increased year-on-year under the low base in the same period, and the overall transaction performance was better than that of new houses.
According to the analysis of the China Index Research Institute, the implementation of the 5.17 package of real estate policies has a good effect on market confidence, and the short-term activity of core first- and second-tier cities is expected to continue for a period of time, thereby bringing certain support to the national market, but the overall pace of market repair still depends on the improvement of residents' income expectations, and the national new housing market may still be in the bottoming stage in the short term. In terms of destocking, all localities may speed up the detailed implementation of policies such as the acquisition and storage of unsold new houses by local state-owned enterprises and the acquisition of stock land, so as to help real estate enterprises speed up the recovery of funds and help resolve industry risks.
Looking ahead, it is expected that with the optimization of both supply and demand, the real estate market will accelerate its stabilization and recovery, and the sales of real estate companies will improve.
Written by: Sun Yang, reporter of Nandu Bay Finance Agency