Text | Finance and Economics, Author | Yajie Liu, Editor | Guan Dongsheng
In order to further stabilize the price trend of the 53 degree Feitian Moutai market, some media reported that Moutai adjusted the market launch plan, of which 12 bottles of Feitian Moutai (commonly known as "big boxes" in the market) will be canceled, and the Feitian Moutai unpacking policy will also be canceled. At the same time, some Moutai dealers also said that they had received a notice of suspension of shipments of 15-year-old Moutai and high-quality Moutai.
"This is an important way to maintain the normal operation of Moutai and protect the interests of dealers." According to the observation of Zheng Fei (pseudonym), the owner of the liquor industry who has been operating the terminal sales of Moutai for more than ten years, Moutai is adjusting the balance of supply and demand in the market according to the latest situation due to multiple factors such as obvious price fluctuations and fluctuations in the early stage.
Combined with the data released by the liquor market price release platforms "Fuji Sauce" and "Today's Liquor Price", after the release of the regulation policy, the batch price of Moutai has stabilized and rebounded. After visits to Beijing, Changsha, Taiyuan and other places, and in-depth communication with experts in the liquor industry, all parties generally believe that the sharp fluctuations in Moutai have basically come to an end.
Zheng Fei said that due to the external environment, the wholesale price of Moutai in the store has sunk to a certain extent, but the price of the whole box has always been maintained at 2,500 yuan/bottle, and the price of loose bottles has been maintained above 2,300 yuan/bottle. "There are many consumers in the market who have a buy-up, not buy-down mentality. However, after the introduction of the new launch plan, some wait-and-see consumers finally decided to buy. Zheng Fei said.
For this adjustment, Li Ke, an expert in the marketing industry, believes that at the moment when the external environment is still not stable, Moutai has accurately locked the crux of the problem, and prescribed the right medicine in an appropriate way to grasp the rhythm of adjustment. "Based on the current situation of Moutai, my attitude is 'not optimistic in the short term, not pessimistic in the long term'." Li Ke said that it cannot be ruled out that there will still be ups and downs in the short term, but the trend of positive development remains unchanged.
Feedback to the secondary market, Moutai's share price has also stabilized and rebounded. On June 24, after the stock price hit 1414.01 yuan, and the market value fell to 1847.867 billion yuan, a new low in 2024, Moutai ushered in a wave of "three consecutive yangs", and the stock price once rose to 1502.99 yuan, an increase of 6.29% from the lowest point.
In addition, Citigroup, an internationally renowned investment bank, released a report that considering that Moutai may take new measures to stabilize wholesale prices, potential consumer demand is elastic, speculative demand is gradually normalized, and the recent stock price softening provides an ideal buying opportunity, and at the same time maintains Kweichow Moutai's "buy" rating.
The broader market stabilized
In order to further stabilize the market situation, Moutai has launched a series of regulatory policies since June. From the suspension of the synthetic exercise of 375ml Moutai (Xunfeng) to the current control of the "big box" release and unpacking policy, the direction of adjustment is very clear, which is to further boost market confidence, reduce social inventory, and stabilize the market price of Feitian Moutai.
Regarding the new regulation and control policy, Li Ke believes that it can be understood in two parts: adjusting the unpacking policy is to sort out the internal process; The key to stabilizing prices lies in controlling the supply of 15-year-old Moutai and high-quality Moutai.
"This is a series of supporting means: 15-year-old Moutai and high-quality Moutai regulation are the key starting points, and the size box is an important supplement." Citing the core idea of Weisman, an expert in strategic management, Li Ke believes that the solution of a problem always depends on the solution of a higher-level problem adjacent to the problem, combined with market experience, and believes that the downward trend of the price of 15-year-old Moutai may become the reason for the price fluctuation of Feitian Moutai, so the key to solving the problem lies in this.
"Compared with Feitian Moutai, the total amount of 15-year-old Moutai is small, the condensed brand and cultural value are higher, and regulation can achieve twice the result with half the effort." Li Ke said.
When it comes to price fluctuations, Li Ke believes that in the short term, some individuals and institutions holding Moutai will urgently need to be realized for various reasons and eventually sell Moutai, but this is not the mainstream market. When Moutai is sold at a price of less than 2,400 yuan per bottle, reluctance to sell is the norm in the market.
Zheng Fei recognized the significance of these adjustments and introduced the recent operation of sales outlets. Moutai integrates attributes such as "consumer goods" and "investment products", and has a strong rigid demand in business, gifts and high-end banquets. Focusing on different demands, many consumers came to Zheng Fei's sales outlets to purchase Moutai, and some of them have established long-term and fixed consumption habits.
Nowadays, the market price of Moutai is fluctuating, and theoretically, the attribute of "investment products" has been affected to a certain extent, and all parties believe that the consumption of liquor is becoming more and more rational; However, in practice, "rational consumption" is not the same as "refusal to consume", and the attribute of "consumer goods" can still drive a large number of users to continue their consumption habits.
"I have contacted many friends around me who operate Moutai, even if there is no adjustment, we will stick to the price of 2,500 yuan/bottle for the whole box and 2,300 yuan/bottle for loose bottles, and the overall business situation is still ideal." Zheng Fei said.
As for the price fluctuations announced by third-party platforms, Zheng Fei said that it is difficult to find a lower price in the market and make a deal. He received many consumers who came to ask for the price, and many of them expressed their willingness to buy Feitian Moutai at a price of 2,100 yuan per bottle, but they were all refused. "I will communicate with friends in the same industry regularly, and everyone ships according to the established price, and I have not heard of low-price sales." Zheng Fei said.
Such a view is similar to the view of Duan Yongping, a well-known investor not long ago - "People who like to drink Moutai will not stop drinking Moutai because the market price has fallen, and people who like Moutai Company, the lower the stock price, the happier they should be." ”
Follow the "quality".
After a series of adjustments, the volatility of this round has gradually flattened. From the data of "Fuji Sauce" and "Today's Liquor Prices", it is not difficult to find that the price of Moutai has gotten rid of the trough and gradually returned to the right track, but the risk of volatility is still there.
"According to the Elliott band theory, there will be new challenges in the whole cycle of Moutai's gradual return to normal, which I expect to appear in late July and early August." Li Ke said that due to the influence of complex factors such as mentality, regulation and control, and industry rules, after two rounds of price fluctuations in April and June, it cannot be ruled out that the price may fall significantly again.
However, judging from the feedback, based on the trust in the quality of Moutai, all parties have maintained a very positive attitude. Zheng Fei said that relying on excellent quality and the word-of-mouth effect accumulated over the years, Moutai has formed a strong influence in the liquor market, so it is not worried about market performance.
"Although the frequency is reduced, the necessary business entertainment is indispensable, and the quality of the wine is higher, and Moutai is always a good choice. At present, the transaction price is not as low as said on the Internet, and we are still willing to give priority to Moutai every time we socialize. "There are many consumers who hold this view.
At the same time, Moutai's management has also raised the requirements for product quality to a new height. On April 27, Zhang Deqin, who had just assumed the post of chairman of Moutai, emphasized that it is necessary to adhere to the "quality is the soul of life", pay attention to the production quality of Moutai in an all-round way with a high sense of responsibility and mission, and continue to promote the high-quality development of Moutai.
"No matter what difficulties it encounters, Moutai has never changed its pursuit of quality. If there is no wrong direction, there will be no problem. Li Ke said that this is similar to the state of ordinary people, who will get sick in normal life; The "moat" of quality that has been built up over time is like resistance, able to fight against uncertainty. "If the foundation is not moved, the tree will not be shaken." Li Ke said.
This is also recognized by Zheng Fei. She said that the rise and fall of Moutai prices has little impact on consumers who actually need it, and Moutai is preferred for business banquets and business activities.
By participating in meetings at different levels between Moutai and dealers, and between dealers and dealers, Zheng Fei also found that only a few people believe that the current "situation is not yet clear and still needs to wait and see", and more than 70% of the operators who take the initiative to speak out and firmly support Moutai can get out of the shadows. "The market fully recognizes the quality of Moutai." Zheng Fei said.
"As early as 2013, Moutai faced a harsher situation." Zhou Cheng (pseudonym) used to buy and sell Moutai. According to his recollection, due to the deep adjustment of the liquor industry, the price of 53 degrees Feitian Moutai once had a price inversion. "At that time, selling a bottle of Moutai would cost you about 20 yuan." Zhou Cheng said.
However, after a period of self-healing, the market returned to a stable state. At that time, scalpers formed an experience - when the price fluctuation was more obvious, they immediately stopped the arrangement of recalling Moutai; As long as the price can maintain a certain range for 3-5 days, business will resume. "The shutdown is only temporary, and it will get back on track when the situation stabilizes." Zhou Cheng said.
Therefore, for the future performance of Kweichow Moutai, optimism is still dominant. China Securities Construction Investment said that looking forward to the second half of the year, with the strengthening of real estate policy stimulus, the liquor business scene may boost expectations, in addition, the demand for college banquets, Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day will drive market growth, and the growth of leading enterprises throughout the year is still good.