In the second half of this week, the Shanghai Composite Index began to move sideways, and now the market is waiting for the signal that the index will stop falling, and in this process, we should look at our own portfolio and calm layout at this stage.
As a rule, we have collected some universal questions from this week's Q&A to share with you, including, why has A-shares fallen recently, and are there any signs to stop falling? Should the liquor and CSI 2000 of the real portfolio be reduced? What do you think of the Science and Technology Innovation 50? Can the debt base still be matched? Can you share the contrarian fund?
Question 1
What is the reason for the recent decline in A-shares? Is there any stop signal?
If you want to find the cause, you can find several of them:
(1) The recent exchange rate has continued to depreciate, reaching a maximum of 7.3079 this week, and the exchange rate has eased slightly on Friday, but the overall is still at a high level in the past six months.
Source: Wind, deadline: June 28, 2024
(2) At the end of last week, the Beijing Stock Exchange and the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges accepted IPOs again after three months and half a year respectively, and the announcement of the resumption of IPOs at a time when the market index fell as a whole will also have an impact on market sentiment;
(3) The main reason is actually the weak economic data, the current real estate sales data still has not rebounded significantly, and the negative financial data is superimposed, and market confidence has been suppressed;
(4) From the periphery, the United States has issued proposed rules to restrict investment in China, but such things have become the norm.
Some of these reasons are also relatively short-term, on the whole, the market index experienced a sharp decline, and began to fluctuate sideways in the second half of this week, but because the market volume has been relatively sluggish, the shape of the bottom of the market will be more complicated, it is difficult to form a V-shaped rebound at one time, and it is expected to fluctuate for a period of time. The stop fall signal can refer to the wave at the beginning of the year, when the national team entered and pulled out the big white line, foreign capital began to flow in, incremental funds entered the market, and the market really appeared when the volume increased.
If the position is very low, you can increase the position when it falls, but if the current position is already relatively high, it is recommended to wait, because it is still necessary to leave some bullets for extreme situations. If you don't know how to lay it out, you can refer to our regular investment real and I want to be smart.
Question 2
I am very rich, do I need to adjust or reduce my holdings in the liquor and CNI 2000 portfolio?
In my very rich portfolio, liquor and CNI 2000 both account for only 7%, which is relatively low.
For liquor, in the short term, liquor is in the off-season, the demand side is still relatively weak, and northbound funds have been selling liquor recently, so they may have to continue grinding, but after such a long decline, it has reached a very low position, and the room for decline is limited. In the long run, we believe that the future of liquor will still follow the economy, and the business model of liquor is good, and the profitability of high-end liquor companies does not have to worry. As for the CNI 2000, it plays a role in the balance of styles, and no one can fully step on the rotation direction of the market style, so the small market cannot be completely abandoned.
If there are other consumer funds or small-cap quantitative funds, then you can appropriately reduce the proportion of liquor and CNI 2000 in regular investment. Our regular investment ratio is just for your reference, and when you implement it, you should also flexibly adjust it according to your own portfolio.
Question 3
What do you think of the teacher's science and technology innovation 50? It's been falling a bit too much lately.
The Science and Technology Innovation 50 has fallen a lot, mainly because semiconductors have fallen sharply recently, half of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 are semiconductors, and there are also pharmaceuticals that have fallen more ruthlessly recently, which have dragged down the Science and Technology Innovation 50.
However, after such a fall, the Kechuang 50 has reached the bottom of the early shock platform. The downside of the current position is limited, and the upside is very large, the trend of the science and technology 50 is highly correlated with the semiconductor sector, we are still optimistic about the medium and long-term opportunities of semiconductors, and the science and technology 50 also continue to be optimistic. In addition, the newly introduced "Eight Articles of the Science and Technology Innovation Board" are beneficial from a long-term perspective.
Now that the funds are in the stock market, the funds will choose to fall into the pocket if they rise more, and the semiconductor has risen a wave of policy stimulus some time ago, so there will naturally be callback pressure. At present, the CSI Semiconductor Index has come to the 60-day line, and it will be seen whether it can live in this support.
Source: Wind, deadline: June 28, 2024
In the long run, it is possible to increase positions at this stage. We are optimistic about the medium and long-term opportunities of semiconductors, there are opportunities for upward cycle and domestic substitution, which corresponds to the same as the Science and Technology Innovation 50.
Question 4
The debt base has been bullish for a long time, can it still be matched now? Recently, I heard that I am more optimistic about short-term bonds, so should the long-term bonds in the fixed income real market be converted?
Recently, the stock market has begun to weaken again, and the enthusiasm of all kinds of funds for fixed income assets has not diminished, and it can be seen that the willingness of funds to enter the stock market at this stage is weak. The market risk appetite is low, and at the same time, in the context of asset shortage, the bond market is still favored by funds.
Source: Wind, deadline: June 28, 2024
And judging from the macroeconomic data, the economic recovery is slow, and there is a high probability that interest rates and RRR cuts will continue in the future, so the bond bull market is still there, unless the economy recovers significantly or the monetary policy shifts, the bond market will take a big turn.
As for being more bullish on short-term bonds now, it is because bond yields have now reached extremely low levels. The yield on 30-year treasury bonds has reached 2.42%, and the central bank has been shouting that the current long-term bond interest rate is low, so the risk of bond-base adjustment is increasing.
Source: Wind, deadline: June 28, 2024
Therefore, if you are buying a bond base now and are afraid of fluctuations, you can buy short-term bonds first. Those who already hold medium- and long-term bonds, and those who tend to hold them for a long time, do not need to convert. Because from a long-term perspective, it is definitely better than short-term bond funds for medium and long-term bonds. Historical data shows that the 5-year annualized rate of medium and long-term pure bond funds is 3.55%, and the 5-year annualized rate of short-term pure bond funds is 2.9%, with annualized volatility of 1.03% and 0.66%, respectively. Therefore, in our "fixed income real market", only 10% of the pure debt part is ultra-short-term debt, and the remaining 40% is allocated to medium and long-term pure debt. According to the historical performance backtest, in the past 5 years (2019.2~2024.4), the annualized return of the real market is 6%, and the maximum drawdown is only -1.63%, which is very strong in controlling the drawdown.
If you want to know more about the specific positions of our fixed income real market, you can get the list in the background.
If you are running for long-term holding, it is also possible to buy long-term bonds now, but you will be worried that there may be some short-term correction.
Question 5
Hello teacher, can you share the contrarian investment fund?
There are a lot of fund managers who invest in contrarian investment, but there are not many who can adapt to different market styles and do not perform well. Contrarian investment is doing well, such as Zhou Haidong of Chinese businessmen and Yang Jinjin of Bank of Communications.
Source: Haomai Fund Research Center, deadline: June 28, 2024
Especially Zhou Haidong, his performance in different market environments is quite resistant, and the annualized rate in the past 3 years is still 10%. For example, Lin Yingrui of GF, Wang Haifeng of Yinhua, and Zhou Zhishuo of Jianxin are also contrarian investment players, but some of the headwinds in performance are more serious, because the positions of fund managers with different contrarian investment styles are also very different. Generally speaking, when we say contrarian investment, we refer to focusing on finding "unpopular" opportunities that are not consensus, which can be reflected in the reversal of market sentiment, the reversal of style, the reversal of industry themes, and the reversal of position targets, so there are still differences.
As a reminder, contrarian investing is generally more advantageous in bear markets and structural markets, and performs well in the bull market of value stocks, but tends to perform mediocre in the bull market.
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Disclaimer: The content of this article is based on public information research and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make prudent decisions and bear risks independently.
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