The manufacturing PMI was flat in June
The non-manufacturing business activity index remained expanding
On June 30, 2024, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers' Index. In this regard, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics has interpreted.
In June, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 49.5%, unchanged from the previous month; The non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were both 50.5%, down 0.6 and 0.5 percentage points respectively from the previous month. In terms of output, the mainland's economy has generally maintained expansion, but the foundation for sustained recovery still needs to be consolidated.
1. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index was flat
In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, the same as the previous month.
(1) The production of enterprises continues to expand. The production index was 50.6 percent, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, higher than the critical point, and the production of manufacturing enterprises continued to expand. From the perspective of industries, the production index of metal products, railways, ships, aerospace equipment and other industries was higher than 55.0%, and the production of related industries maintained rapid growth; The production index of textile, petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industries was below the critical point, and the production activities of enterprises slowed down.
(2) The new orders index was basically flat. The new orders index was 49.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the demand in the manufacturing market was still insufficient. From the perspective of industries, the new order index of papermaking, printing, cultural, educational, sports, aesthetic and entertainment products, railways, ships, aerospace equipment, computer communication and electronic equipment and other industries was higher than 53.0%, and the market demand of related industries was released quickly; The new order index of chemical raw materials and chemical products, non-metallic mineral products and other industries are running at a low level, and enterprises reflect that the lack of effective demand is the main difficulty they are currently facing.
(3) The price index has fallen. Affected by factors such as the recent decline in the prices of some bulk commodities and the lack of market demand, the purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials were 51.7% and 47.9% respectively, down 5.2 and 2.5 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of industries, the purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials in petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries have declined significantly.
(4) New momentum continues to grow. From the perspective of key industries, the PMI of high-tech manufacturing industry was 52.3 percent, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, and remained in the expansion range for eight consecutive months; the PMI of equipment manufacturing industry was 51.0 percent, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and maintained expansion for four consecutive months. The PMIs of energy-intensive industries and consumer goods industries continued to be below the critical point at 47.4% and 49.5% respectively.
(5) Enterprise expectations are basically stable. The expected index of production and business activities was 54.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and manufacturing enterprises have stable expectations for market development. From the perspective of industry, the expected index of production and business activities in agricultural and sideline food processing, metal products, railways, ships, aerospace equipment, electrical machinery and equipment and other industries is in a relatively prosperous range of more than 58.0%, and enterprises have strong confidence in the development of the industry.
Second, the non-manufacturing business activity index maintained expansion
In June, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, higher than the critical point, and the non-manufacturing industry continued to expand.
(1) The prosperity of the service industry fell slightly. The business activity index of the service industry was 50.2 percent, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the prosperity level of the service industry declined. From the perspective of industries, the business activity index of air transport, postal services, telecommunications, radio and television and satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services, insurance and other industries is in the relatively prosperous range of more than 55.0%, and the total business volume has grown rapidly; The business activity index of capital market services, real estate and other industries continued to run at a low level, and the prosperity level was low. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index was 57.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to be in a relatively high prosperity range, indicating that most service enterprises continue to be optimistic about the recent market development.
(2) The expansion of the construction industry has slowed down. Recently, there has been continuous heavy rainfall in many places in the south, and the construction industry has been affected to a certain extent, and the business activity index of the construction industry was 52.3%, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index was 54.7%, indicating that most construction enterprises remain optimistic about the future development of the industry.
Third, the expansion of the composite PMI output index slowed down
In June, the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to be higher than the critical point, indicating that the production and business activities of mainland enterprises generally maintained expansion, but the pace of expansion slowed down. The manufacturing production index and the non-manufacturing business activity index, which make up the composite PMI output index, were 50.6% and 50.5%, respectively.