#长文创作激励计划#
Match 1: Portugal vs Slovenia
Match analysis: After seeing long-term success in the group stage, Portugal will prove their credentials as Euro 2024 winners against Slovenia.
Meanwhile, Slovenia arrive in Eintracht Frankfurt for their first knockout game in a major tournament where they will fight for a place in the quarter-finals of the European Championship.
Despite winning first place in Group F with one game remaining, Portugal suffered a humiliating defeat to prospectless outsiders Georgia on Wednesday night, with Portugal falling victim to a historic defeat and a slight dip in what would have been impressive so far.
Two errors by Benfica centre-back Antonio Silva helped Georgia score a goal in each half, with Kvaratskhelia scoring a stunning opening strike two minutes before Portugal failed to materialise at the Stadium in Gelsenkirchen.
Portugal have already secured their place in the round of 16 thanks to back-to-back victories over the Czech Republic and Turkey, and head coach Roberto Martinez is happy to take advantage of the opportunity to rest some of his players, such as Bruno Fernandez, Ruben Dias, Bernardo Silva and veteran centre-back Pepe.
Still, the talented team will surely be hit by their third defeat since the 2022 World Cup defeat to Morocco, which also ended Portugal's 12-match winning streak.
It is worth noting that Portugal have not lost in a row since Euro 2008 and will recover soon as only Germany have more possession, fewer shots on goal and more goal attempts in the group stage.
Martinez and his team are still expected to develop further in what has been called a tougher route to qualification; However, since lifting the European Champions trophy in 2016, Portugal have lost three of their four knockout games at the European Championship or World Cup.
—— Why Portugal will win ——
Portugal had an impressive start to the group stage until they lost 0-2 to Georgia in their final game. Regardless, they improved considering the situation of the other teams in the group and they attracted another favorable opponent in Slovenia. Slovenia haven't won a game yet, but they haven't lost either, and Portugal could feel the pressure if they don't play in this one. Their best win was a 3-0 victory over Turkey, which strongly secured Portugal's qualification for the next stage.
Seeing this team, it's easy to focus solely on Cristiano Ronaldo as their star player, but Rafael Leao has made a huge contribution to this team on the left flank. He was cunning to get rid of my defenders and he did a good job of getting the ball into the box. The team is filled with players from top leagues around the world who have the upper hand throughout the game with their speed and the movement of the ball. Portugal also did an excellent job of controlling the ball and keeping the opposition attacking on their side.
Monday's match will see Slovenia meet Portugal for the second time, the first coming in March this year when Slovenia won 2-0 in a friendly in Ljubljana.
Compared to their illustrious opponents who have already played 25 games after the group stage, Slovenia are now making their debut in the knockout stages of a major competition, so even this step is something to celebrate.
In their final Group C game against England, they persevered to hold England to a goalless draw to see Slovenia progress to the round of 16 and extend their unbeaten run to nine games.
They drew with Denmark and Serbia and then England to finish third with three points, which was enough to qualify Slovenia for the knockout stages of the round of 16.
While Slovenia have averaged just 32% possession so far at Euro 2024 and only two teams have managed a lower average possession in the group stage, Keck can give a solid squad with two real stars, captain Jan Oblak and young striker Benjamin Sesko.
They have kept a clean sheet against England since losing 2-0 to Finland 14 years ago, so Slovenia will certainly pose a threat to one of the favourites, Portugal.
—— Why Slovenia will win ——
Slovenia have been underperforming in this tournament but are yet to be beaten after three draws in the group stage. Their most impressive performance came against top-four England, who held England to another draw to secure top spot in the next round. While there's nothing special about their offense, their defense does a great job of limiting the team's chances and steals to score chances. Their goalkeeper Jan Oblak conceded just two goals while making a total of nine saves. What's even more impressive is that so far, Slovenia have only allowed their opponents to score goals with single-digit shots.
Slovenia were poor defensively in their last game, with multiple free throws and fouls, so they will need to clear up that part of the game if they want to continue their fight for a quarter-final spot against Portugal. Still, their defence was very quick in grabbing the ball and disrupting the tempo, which worked in Slovenia's favour as Portugal liked to keep the ball at their feet.
—— Forecast ——
As the round of 16 approaches, teams will start to give it their all because every game has been important so far. With the clock ticking for 39-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo, Portugal will be hoping to make the most of these stars and play a game of depth. They have a favourable game against this Slovenian team, who have scored just two goals in this tournament so far.
At the end of the day, this Portuguese team's possession and passing were too strong for Slovenia to cope with in 90 minutes. Slovenia are expected to make a strong defensive effort in the first half, but the final pressure on Portugal will be to break through to the Slovenian backline and achieve the goals they need to advance to the next round.
If Roberto Martinez is not willing to experiment more tactically and with his players, Portugal should have enough attacking firepower to cope with a hard-working Slovenian side.
Now, most Portuguese players have tasted this attack, and even a tight squad can be overcome by a series of substitutes.
Recommend:
Look for Portugal to win 2-0 2-1 3-1