The ups and downs of the first half of the year finally came to an unsatisfactory end! I don't have friends who make money, so I have to look forward to the second half of the year. Of course, dark horses! In order to meet the bull market, look forward to the stars and the moon, and look forward to year after year! Even if the abused body is incomplete, even if the waiting flowers are grateful, the heart is still high-spirited, because real investors have a firm and unyielding belief and the spirit of never admitting defeat.
Rational persistence is a very valuable quality and the key to a person's success. For example, the dark horse, the medical and technology in the position is slightly floating, but I have no waves. Because the heart is in a high place and the ambition is far away, it is natural that you will not be bothered by the twists and turns and accidents in front of you!
The pattern lays the victory, and the thinking determines the way out! From all aspects, A-shares are no longer far away from a new round of bull market! Ultra-low market valuation, increasing investment value, increasingly strict and formal supervision, and increasingly improving market ecological environment are the underlying logic that I dare to hold for a long time. If it is now in the middle to high zone of the bull market, it will run faster than a rabbit. Different positions and different natures naturally lead to different trading strategies.
This year's market is extremely differentiated. On the one hand, high-dividend assets and dividend indices have risen sharply, and the red sun is shining high, and the record high is free; On the one hand, medicine and medical treatment, liquor, and new energy are adjusted all the way, and no one is watching at sunset, and the new low is constantly embarrassing. On the one hand, the policy benefits have continued one after another, and on the other hand, the stock market has risen sharply like a dream.
Many investors are puzzled by these phenomena, and the dark horse has been playing in the stock market for almost 20 years, and this is the first time that this situation has been encountered. After thinking about it carefully, I think it is more appropriate to describe it in one word, that is: weak and difficult to return!
The problems accumulated over the past 30 years have erupted in a concentrated manner, resulting in a serious setback in investor confidence. Although the China Securities Regulatory Commission and other departments immediately decided that a lot of good, even very powerful, if it is placed in the past market casually to come up with a "shocking" move, can make the market instantly "boiling", but the current market has been weak for a long time, although these policies are very strong, but it will be difficult to turn things around for a while.
Severe cases require fierce medicine, and bone scraping to cure poison requires heavy hands. Niu Wenxin, chief commentator and chief researcher of the People's Daily's "China Economic Weekly" and member of the financial market expectation management expert member of the Financial Stability Commission of the State Council, said it particularly well: "To strengthen supervision and prevent risks, we must vigorously and effectively deal with those "market mechanisms that run counter to each other." Refinancing short selling and quantitative trading are contrary to market fairness, and they must be banned. With 220 million retail investors and 700 million fund investors in China's capital market, high-frequency trading must not be allowed to treat these investors as lambs to the slaughter. ”
Next, let's talk about today's market. The content is very important, there are highlights!
1. Market trends and hot topics
1. Bottoming out, the rebound officially kicked off?
Looking at the Shanghai Composite Index alone, the four-wave adjustment should be over, and the five-wave rise is on the way. Whether the five waves can hit a new high, it is difficult to say now, the key depends on the return of market funds, and whether there are high-impact sectors continue to strengthen to drive sentiment.
How long can the rally last? Let's calculate the wave pattern period and make a rough estimate.
The big rebound since 2.6 has risen for 65 trading days, and the adjustment time calculated by the golden section of 0.382 is: 65 * 0.382 = 24.83, and the actual adjustment is 25 days. Then take 0.382 to calculate the rebound time: 25*0.382=9.55. If the rally holds, then the next rally cycle is tentatively set at 8-13 trading days.
Today is the 4th trading day of the rebound, and the rebound cycle has not ended, and there is a great possibility of a continuation of the shock rebound. However, the market has been adjusted for 27 consecutive days, which is more hurtful and difficult to directly continue to rise, so I say it is a shock rebound, not a strong rebound.
2. The high dividend and bonus sectors are on fire again, can you still get on the bus?
In the first half of the year, the most sustainable market is not the limelight of big technology, not the real estate with favorable policies, nor the high-end manufacturing of large-scale equipment "trade-in", not to mention the non-ferrous gold with global interest rate cuts, only the high dividend and bonus sectors are the most sustainable. It's really "dividends in hand, I have the world"! "Full of high dividends, sleep until you wake up naturally" This is a comfortable stock trading life!
Today, high-dividend stocks such as Yangtze Power, CNOOC, China Mobile, and Agricultural Bank of China hit record highs, and stocks such as ICBC, CCB, China Shenhua, and China Nuclear Power hit multi-year highs.
Riding the dust and smiling, the heavy medical squatting in the corner. Congratulations to the friends who make money on the bonus, the dark horse squatted in the corner to eat a bowl of medical noodles first, I will eat vegetarian first, and then eat meat after a few months.
High dividends have hit a record high, and there are two things to observe in the future:
The first is whether the trading volume can be released. If the volume continues to rise, the strength of this wave of rise will be reduced.
The second is whether the MACD red column can continue to amplify. If the red pillar does not come out here, it means that there will be a secondary top divergence, and you must be prepared to adjust.
It is still in an upward trend, and there is basically no problem with not breaking the 5-day moving average. Although the rise does not say that the top is high, there must be a sense of risk. Many friends stand guard at a high position, because of the weak sense of risk, thinking that it can continue to rise after a continuous surge, and do not know the stop loss or profit taking, and the result is deeply trapped.
3. Nonferrous metals and gold have risen sharply, and the opportunity is coming?
The positive news of rare earths over the weekend caused the non-ferrous sector to rise sharply.
On the technical side, the non-ferrous metal just stepped back to the white line support level to stop falling and rebounded, MACD, KDJ low golden cross, the volume is moderately amplified, there are signs of stabilization, and the rebound is expected to continue.
The internal logic of the previous wave of nonferrous metals is the international pricing under the global interest rate cut tide, and a new round of liquidity cycle is gradually coming, which is good for commodities in the medium term, and copper and precious metals are the first to respond. Gold is anti-inflation and anti-risk, copper is a leading signal of economic recovery, and the demand for copper will increase greatly if the economy enters an expansion cycle.
The previous adjustment is more due to the overbought technical side, and of course, the delay in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations is also one of the reasons. After understanding the internal logic of the market, you will understand that whether it is non-ferrous metals or gold, their medium-term market has not been completed, because the market logic has not weakened, and it will even be strengthened later.
Second, the main plate analysis
1. Traditional Chinese medicine
Traditional Chinese medicine has a deep historical heritage and mass foundation in China, and for thousands of years, Chinese have relied on Chinese medicine to cure diseases and save people, and Western medicine has been introduced to China in recent decades. However, due to various reasons, the development speed of traditional Chinese medicine has lagged significantly behind that of Western medicine in the past few years.
With the acceleration of the aging society, the unique efficacy of traditional Chinese medicine in the treatment of geriatric diseases and chronic diseases has the advantages that cannot be replaced by Western medicine, and has been recognized by more and more people. A new crown epidemic has made it difficult to find a box of Chinese patent medicines such as Lotus Qingwen capsules, and it has also left a very deep impression on the people of the whole country on the importance of traditional Chinese medicine.
It is precisely because of the extremely important clinical role of traditional Chinese medicine that the state has introduced many favorable policies in recent years to support the inheritance of traditional Chinese medicine culture and the vigorous development of the industry. The medical insurance policy is also obviously tilted towards traditional Chinese medicine, and the price reduction is more modest.
In the long run, traditional Chinese medicine has broad development prospects, and market demand is accelerating. The long-term positive fundamentals of the industry are evident in the leading enterprises. In the first quarter of this year, the net profit of leading Chinese medicine companies such as Pien Tze Spring, Yunnan Baiyao, China Resources Sanjiu, Tong Ren Tang, and Dong'e Ejiao all achieved double-digit growth year-on-year.
In the medium term, the Chinese medicine sector is expected to maintain a wide range of fluctuations between the purple line and the green line. The purple line is a strong support level for multi-point resonance, and it is also possible to stop it here this time when the previous four sharp declines stopped.
From a technical point of view, the 60-minute small 7 waves fell, the adjustment is relatively sufficient, and there is an obvious bottom divergence, there is a technical demand for an over-falling rebound.
The performance of the traditional Chinese medicine sector is relatively strong today, but it is not yet confirmed that it will stop falling, and there are two ways to operate in the future:
First, here directly stop falling and turn upward, opening a band rebound, which requires the market to stabilize and cooperate.
The second is that after a slight rebound here, it will fall again, and the adjustment structure of the small 9 waves will test the purple line support level on the daily line, and then a wave of reversal will take place.
2. CSI A50
Throughout the previous bear markets of A-shares, all of them broke out in extreme pessimism; The real investment opportunities are all at the bottom of the bear market. Although the current market is not going well, it is indeed a major opportunity period that occurs once in a few years. The last market opportunity of the same level was at the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2019.
The valuations of core asset indices such as SSE 50, CSI A50, and CSI 300 have fallen below the low point of the last bear market, and are at the bottom of more than 10 years. From a medium-term perspective, the current investment value is very high, and more than 400 billion funds have entered the market through index ETFs during the year, which fully reflects the recognition of the market investment value by patient capital.
Among the three core asset indexes, the SSE 50 and CSI 300 finance account for a large proportion, and the traditional industries are heavier, so I am more optimistic about the CSI A50 in comparison. CSI A50 is composed of 50 more representative industry leaders selected from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, with more prominent leading characteristics, higher technology content and more prominent growth.
On the daily line, I just stepped back to the white line support level, and a golden needle probed the bottom, and initially sent a rebound signal, but the signal strength is not high, and it needs to be confirmed by strengthening later. In the 60 minutes, there has been repeated bottom divergence, and there is a tendency to rebound in the short term. However, Moutai and CATL are its heavyweight stocks, which have a greater impact on it, and it depends on whether these two can stop falling.
Finally, please give a thumbs up, give encouragement and support, thank you very much!
The above content is personal opinion only and is not intended to be instructive. The mention of individual stock funds is only to record market views and the actual operation process, and accumulate materials for future creations, without making any recommendations, please do not blindly follow up. Past performance is not indicative of the future and investors should be aware of the risk of market volatility.