The "Mao Index" plummeted, the new energy plummeted, the GEM plummeted, when will the "small composition" be closed?

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2024-07-01 16:10Look at the official account of Finance

When will the "Little Composition" be closed?

This morning, news suddenly came out of the market, and a person who claimed to work at CATL's core supplier said:

"At present, there are 4 pull lines, two have been stopped, the news received tonight, one will be stopped tomorrow, the last line may be stopped the day after tomorrow, and it is possible that the entire base will be stopped. In June this year, there was no order stoppage, and production resumed at the end of February this year, and it began to enter a semi-shutdown state in June. ”

As soon as the news came out, CATL's stock price plummeted by 5 percentage points!

Some people have doubts, not half a month ago, the market just reported that "struggle for 100 days, the implementation of the 896 work system" appeared on the hot search, and was questioned about mandatory overtime. So, which one is true and which one is false?

In response to the rumors, CATL responded immediately, saying that the company's business is in good condition, the global market share is steadily increasing, and the overall production schedule is good. In particular, it was mentioned that the production schedule in the recent and third quarters showed an increasing trend quarter-on-quarter.

Regarding this statement, the brokerage also confirmed it.

Some brokerages said that the production schedule of CATL in July is expected to increase month-on-month, reaching about 42G, taking into account the "golden nine and silver ten", it is expected that it will continue to improve in August, and the industry fundamentals and operating rate will continue to improve.

But the current situation is that regardless of whether the "small composition" is true or not, the stock price will fall first anyway, and even if the rumors are refuted, the stock price will not return to before the fall.

CATL's business performance has always exceeded expectations, but the market will raise concerns that your next quarter's performance will fail; Even if you do well in the next quarter, the market will question the logic of the company that has changed under the pressure of the United States.

Note that what is worse than the CATL era is the entire lithium battery industry chain. As of July 1, 2024, the lithium battery index fell by 29%, far outperforming the broader market.

If the decline of the lithium battery sector is still an excuse, then the decline of the "Mao Index" represented by Moutai seems to be difficult to justify.

In addition to Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, WuXi AppTec, Mindray Medical, Hengrui Pharmaceutical, and Aier Ophthalmology in the pharmaceutical field, as well as Haitian Flavor, Arowana, Yili, and China Duty Free in the consumer field. Of course, star companies in the fields of banks, home appliances, agriculture, and semiconductors have all suffered varying degrees of decline.

But are our fundamentals really so bad?

The National Bureau of Statistics has released such a set of data, in the first five months of this year, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 2.75 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, and more than 8 percent of the industry's profits achieved positive growth. Among them, in the highly questionable consumer sector, in the first five months of this year, the profit of the consumer goods manufacturing industry increased by 10.9% year-on-year.

So the problem comes, judging from the published data, many industries have maintained growth in revenue and profits, but judging from the trend of stock prices, it looks like they are going bankrupt. Why is that?

Let's talk about the GEM.

The current top 10 constituent stocks of the GEM are CATL, Oriental Fortune, Mindray Medical, Zhongji Innolight, Inovance Technology, Sungrow, Wen's Shares, Aier Ophthalmology, Xinyisheng and EVE Lithium Energy.

On June 28, Oriental Fortune suffered a "small composition", and it was rumored that the brokerage strictly investigated the stock speculation of the employees and relatives of the brokerage, and checked it for 5 years. In addition, the market is also worried about the adverse impact of the third round of rate reforms.

As a result, the stock price plummeted.

In addition, there is also a lot of bad news like Mindray Medical and Sungrow, as for Aier Ophthalmology and EVE, it is needless to say, because these two companies have already been lying in the ICU.

Therefore, do you think that there is a possibility that someone deliberately shorted the CSI 300 by creating rumors, by cracking down on the "Mao Index", and then shorting the GEM by cracking down on the weight of the GEM?

On June 28, the first semi-annual report of the photovoltaic industry disclosed that Jinlang Technology is expected to achieve a net profit of 325 million yuan to 400 million yuan. In other words, looking at the second quarter alone, the median net profit was about 340 million yuan, an increase of 16 times from the previous quarter and 13% from the same period last year. However, before the announcement of this results, the share price of Jinlang Technology fell by 40% during the year.

So, is the stock price really a reaction to fundamentals? Behind the drop in stock prices, is there someone who is sabotage?

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