Today, we continued to increase the position of liquor and home appliances.
However, with the sharp rise in banks, coal, electricity and nonferrous metals, the position is still 20% and 8.4%.
At present, the dividend yield of a certain high-end liquor has exceeded that of banks and coal leaders, which is very rare.
This means that the market believes that the company's potential growth rate in the future will be lower than that of banks and coal, which are already growing at a low rate.
One
Based on the long-term, I am not pessimistic about liquor, even less pessimistic about high-end liquor, and I am 99% confident in this year's performance.
But if real estate cannot stabilize and the economy continues to be sluggish, we will not dare to judge in 25-26 years.
Therefore, I can only base my position on the long-term and based on the margin of safety.
Just like last year's banks, valuations were generally discounted by 4-5 before they dared to take heavy positions.
Looking back, my judgment on the fundamentals is right, the net interest margin of banks is still declining, and the profits of large banks in the first quarter of this year are generally negative, but the stock price has risen sharply.
If it is based on the short term, it will not be able to enjoy the first increase in the first half of this year.
Based on the bank's successful investment experience (which may be temporary), I still bet on a 4-5% discount on liquor with heavy position value.
Source: Wind, last 10 years, as of June 28, 2024
The reasonable valuation of liquor is 25 times, and the current valuation of CSI liquor is about 20 times, which is equivalent to a 20% discount.
Source: Wind, last 10 years, as of June 28, 2024
If split into a specific company,
The valuation of some liquor brands has fallen below 15 times, which is equivalent to a 6% discount.
Some liquor brands have fallen below 12.5 times, which is equivalent to a 5% discount.
According to Ba Lao's "buying something for 1 yuan at a price of 4 cents", the current decline is still a normal adjustment.
According to the most pessimistic expectations, the current growth rate of liquor performance is generally lower than that of 18 years, but the valuation of many liquor brands is still more expensive than the valuation of 18 years.
If the future is really as the market says, the performance of liquor has negative growth, then the current decline will never dare to say the bottom.
That's where my 20% position comes from, with a split allocation of 9-10 companies.
Next, if I continue to adjust, I will continue to optimize the portfolio by adding and adjusting positions.
But no matter what, for the high-end liquor leader, according to the opinion of a coal tycoon (2% liquor position) that I have been tracking for a long time:
"I personally think that 1400 is an important technical support, and it is quite difficult to break down here, which is the average price of the 30-quarter line.
Between 1150 and 1200, it should be 99% that cannot fall through this important bottom, which is an important support level for the three quarters of consolidation in 19 years.
Coupled with the fact that the dividend yield in this position should be more than 4%, or even 4.5-5% (a decline in the stock price will force the company to increase the dividend ratio of profits), there is basically no possibility of a breakdown. ”
The bottom of the liquor is getting closer and closer, so don't be too pessimistic.
Two
Today, banks, nonferrous metals, and electricity have risen sharply, and they have been adjusted in June, and they have finally raised their eyebrows.
There has been a lot of talk lately about the peak of electricity.
But in my case, the taps have only risen to a reasonable level, far from a bubble.
If it is nuclear, wind power and thermal power with better growth, the valuation is generally 10-20 times, and it is too early to talk about bubbles.
Taking hydropower faucets as an example, this year's water has increased significantly, coupled with the mergers and acquisitions of Wubai, as well as the performance growth of shareholding enterprises, this year's expected performance is 1.4, 20 times PE is 28 yuan, but now there is no dividend ex-right, so it is still reasonable and not expensive.
If there are new highs in the future, I won't be surprised.
This is the power of value investing, which will always judge whether it is expensive or not based on performance and valuation, rather than rising too much in the short term.
Looking back, buying during the pullback in May can be called a classic operation.
High-quality leaders supported by performance (dividend yield) are not afraid of falling, but falling down is a good opportunity to increase positions.
This is true for electricity and non-ferrous metals, as well as for banks and coal, as well as liquor and household appliances that are now falling.
Three
Instead of thinking of bonds as China's version of Nasdaq, think of high dividends as China's version of Nasdaq.
To discuss whether high dividends have peaked, it is better to discuss whether the Nasdaq has peaked first.
After all, I have seen that many bigwigs, including the company's actual controllers and executives, are reducing their holdings in the US stock 7 sisters.
Looking at our high-dividend sectors again, do you see major shareholders reducing their holdings?
Coal doesn't see it, banks don't see it, oil doesn't see it, telecom operators don't see it.
On the contrary, what I see is that a steady stream of large over-the-counter funds is still increasing their holdings in high-dividend sectors.
Because the 30-year treasury bond fell below 2.5%, the 3% annuity insurance was suspended, and it will be reduced to 2.75% again in the future, and the deposit interest rate of small and medium-sized banks will continue to fall.
For example, the insurance capital Great Wall Life Insurance Co., Ltd. has recently raised four listed companies, including Urban Development Environment, Zhongyuan Expressway, Zhejiang Jiaotong Science and Technology, and Jiangxi-Guangdong Expressway, after raising the cards of Wuxi Bank and Jiangnan Water, and has raised a total of 6 listed companies this year.
Guoxin Investment has specially set up the Guoxin Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index and subscribed for investment.
来源：Wind
Southbound funds are also buying high-dividend sectors of Hong Kong stocks this year.
Many people don't look at a 5% dividend yield, but in the eyes of these big funds, 5% of high-dividend assets are simply too fragrant compared to 2.5% bonds.
These big funds, rather than public offerings, are the core drivers of the high-dividend sector.
It is precisely because large funds belong to patient capital and there is no choice, so I am optimistic about them to continue to buy, and I am optimistic about long and slow bulls with high dividends.
Until the dividend is high, it becomes a low dividend.
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Disclaimer: The content of this article is based on public information research and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make prudent decisions and bear risks independently.
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