When the price of the house is one of the topics that people are most concerned about, when it rises, they say that they want to buy a few more sets, and when it falls, look at it, and now it will be a loss if you buy it!
The real estate of the past two years has been obvious to all! The price is really down,
Why is it true here, because in the past, many people said that the decline in housing prices was more of a "routine" data, and now it is a serious way to buy a house at a reduced price.
I used to be miserable by the sales pit, the poster clearly wrote 1 prefix, only to find that there is either nothing, or a bad floor, I want to buy a good house, on the basis of the poster rose 10%, 15% or even 20%
It's different now, the price is clearly marked, and the price can be negotiated!
I said above that house prices fell, and at this time, someone came out to raise the bar, saying that where the house price has fallen, I have not dropped here!
I have observed that those who say this are generally counties with poor economic development, and the housing prices are not high, even if the housing prices fall a little bit, there is no feeling, and more importantly, there is no transaction, so I don't know the real price.
Goldman Sachs Group says China's housing prices have only fallen by half!
When this sentence came out, everyone was taken aback!
I just bought a house recently, and I thought, this is not to continue to lose money
The owners who bought houses in the past, who were originally insolvent, have to fall by 50%, doesn't this cost me my life?
If you don't buy a house, you can still drop half of it, so wait two years before you sell.
It is normal for the development of real estate to have a cyclical nature, the domestic real estate officially started in 96 years, and now it is normal to fall, and it is normal for many countries and cities around the world to develop real estate, and there are falls, and then rises, and then falls.
In the second half of 2021, the market began to decline, and it will not be easy to gradually recover until the third quarter of 2027, and it will take a full 6 years to stabilize the real estate!
But it's normal to think about it, Hong Kong, China's real estate has experienced a rise and fall, and then a rise, and now it has fallen again, including 1997 to 2003, a full 6 years!
Don't think that Goldman Sachs is talking nonsense, everything is deduced by data!
From June 2021 to April 2024, the average home price fell by 23% from its peak.
There is a difference between somatosensory data and real data, although the average house price has fallen by 23%, but the second-hand housing transaction price in major cities has fallen by more than 23%.
Many real transaction prices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have fallen below 30%, and the transaction prices of new houses have also fallen so much!
In other words, the down payment has fallen, and the normal thing should be to start stabilizing real estate, because 70% of the wealth of ordinary people is in the house!
Or that the real estate must be stabilized, if it can't be stabilized, the economy will be quite a shock.
Stabilizing does not mean that housing prices will not fall, but slowly falling, not 10,000 yuan per square meter today, and 5,000 yuan per square meter tomorrow, so that everyone can not accept it.
When will house prices bottom?
Goldman Sachs just gave a reference direction, and the truth may not be so simple, because there are so many things involved!
Now the state is considering using good money to drive out bad money, which is to use housing prices to gradually fall and let speculators and investors withdraw from the real estate market.
The inventory is still at a high level, with the current inventory of 750 million square meters of new houses, and the destocking cycle of new houses is about 26.5 months, which is not within the range of 13 months.
Let young people see hope, to put it mildly, contemporary young people have been harvested very badly by this wave, many people choose to lie flat, but there is still a wave of young people who have not been harvested, but they must also be able to afford it, it is impossible to take a salary of 3,000 yuan to let him buy a house of 30,000 yuan!
Housing prices should return to a relatively reasonable level, which requires the joint efforts of the government and the market to have a good market environment.
Influence of external factors!
China and the United States are fighting a financial war and a trade war, and the Fed's interest rate has not yet fallen, and it has also announced that it will not fall in 2024, and it is not known how many months it will start to fall until 2025.
If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, funds will flow back, the market will be more enthusiastic, and investment will naturally come naturally, and real estate, A-shares, and manufacturing will naturally rise.
The process of adjustment is bound to be painful!
It must be painful in the process of economic transformation and adjustment, and China's economy has not encountered any major obstacles in the past few years of development!
First of all, the economic transformation at that time was from the transformation of the foundry industry to the manufacturing industry, and now from the transformation of the manufacturing industry to the development of technology!
In other words, the low-end manufacturing industry you did in the past will not have much impact on the economy of developed countries, and now you want to go from manufacturing to technology development, which is equivalent to grabbing food in the mouth of developed countries, which will lead to a series of problems just mentioned!
In such an environment, for ordinary people, the first thing is to save the source and open up the flow, don't be attracted by too many temptations from the outside!
Take advantage of the trend, the current people must be a common difficulty, in the process to find business opportunities to watch the world, every time in the economic downturn, there will always be new industries and new bright spots, this may be an opportunity.
Some people say that if it's really 2027, it's really snickering, and it may be longer!
Of course, some people say that 2027 is all American conspiracy theories at this point in time, and it may only take us two years to climb.
The specific decision depends on the changes in the market.