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一、BCI
In June 2024, the commodity supply and demand index (BCI) of the business community was -0.44, with an average increase of -0.62%, reflecting a contraction in the manufacturing economy.
2. BPI
On June 30, the commodity price index BPI was 948 points, down 11 points from the beginning of the month, down 29.41% from the highest point in the cycle of 1343 points (2021-10-19), and up 1.83% from the lowest point of the year (2024-03-31). (Note: The period refers to 2011-12-01 to the present)
3. The rise and fall of the eight major industry indexes
The eight industries monitored by the business community fell across the board this month, and the top three decliners were the steel industry, which fell by -3.18%, the building materials industry, which fell by -2.58%, and the energy industry, which fell by -2.21%.
| industry | End of May Index | End of June Index | Month-on-month gains |
| textile | 1015 | 1012 | -0.30% |
| chemical industry | 872 | 869 | -0.34% |
| Rubber and plastic | 716 | 713 | -0.42% |
| Agricultural and sideline | 1082 | 1069 | -1.20% |
| colored | 1235 | 1219 | -1.30% |
| energy | 997 | 975 | -2.21% |
| building material | 1007 | 981 | -2.58% |
| steel | 976 | 945 | -3.18% |
The monthly changes are as follows:
Fourth, hot commodity analysis
According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price rise and fall of bulk commodities in June 2024 is shown in the following table, which specifically looks at the commodity analysis of butadiene, butadiene rubber, phenol, ferrosilicon, nickel, and lithium carbonate:
| commodity | Prices at the beginning of the month | Month-end price | Monthly ups and downs |
| hydrochloric acid | 102.50 | 145.00 | +41.46% |
| Isobutyraldehyde | 8937.50 | 11175.00 | +25.03% |
| Neopentyl glycol | 10975.00 | 12700.00 | +15.72% |
| butadiene | 11875.00 | 13700.00 | +15.37% |
| antimony | 137250.00 | 158250.00 | +15.30% |
| brimstone | 1056.67 | 1206.67 | +14.20% |
| Cyclohexane | 7466.67 | 8483.33 | +13.62% |
| R22 | 25666.67 | 28333.33 | +10.39% |
| silver | 8302.00 | 7635.67 | -8.03% |
| nitric acid | 1830.00 | 1676.67 | -8.38% |
| Lithium carbonate - battery grade | 109400.00 | 100000.00 | -8.59% |
| Lithium carbonate - industrial grade | 104400.00 | 95400.00 | -8.62% |
| Egg | 8.27 | 7.55 | -8.71% |
| nickel | 150966.67 | 135900.00 | -9.98% |
| ferrosilicon | 7714.29 | 6750.00 | -12.50% |
| Manganese-silicon | 8725.00 | 7550.00 | -13.47% |
1. Butadiene
The market has risen sharply
The butadiene market rose sharply in June. During the cycle, the crude oil market fluctuated strongly, and cost support still existed. The supply side of butadiene is still tight, the market has limited circulating spot resources, the inventory has fallen to a relatively low level, some holders are reluctant to sell, and the market is difficult to find low-price sources. Downstream synthetic rubber prices continued to rise, boosting market sentiment. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will remain strong in the short term, and the market outlook will focus on the downstream receiving situation.
2. Butadiene rubber
The fundamentals are good, and the market is volatile and upward
Since June, the butadiene rubber market has fluctuated upward. The main reason is that the raw material butadiene market has risen sharply, and the cost side has strong support; Butadiene rubber started to maintain a low level, and the market supply side was tight; The superimposed futures are running at a high level, driving the price atmosphere of the butadiene rubber market. However, the recent downstream inquiries have resisted the high-priced supply of goods, which has dragged down butadiene rubber. It is expected that the short-term butadiene rubber market will run at a high level, and it is still necessary to pay attention to the downstream stocking situation in the future.
3. Phenol
Supply is tight and market prices are higher
In June, the overall price trend of phenol fluctuated higher. The factory price is firm, and the operating rate of the phenol ketone plant fluctuates little, maintaining around 7%. The domestic supply is limited, and the supply pressure on traders is not great. Downstream bisphenol A fluctuated upward, the transaction increased but the range was limited, and the phenol market sentiment has weakened recently. It is expected that the short-term phenol price trend will be volatile.
4. Ferrosilicon
The market fell sharply
In June, the ferrosilicon market fell sharply. The spot production profit of ferrosilicon is still considerable, the blue carbon is running weakly and steadily, the output of ferrosilicon is still increasing, the profits of downstream steel mills are poor, the replenishment of the warehouse is tightened, and the cost side continues to loosen with the reduction of electricity charges. On the demand side, the magnesium market is running weakly, and the transaction is progressing slowly. In the steel off-season, the downstream steel recruitment began to enter the market in July, and the market waited for pricing guidance. It is expected that the short-term ferrosilicon market will fluctuate.
5. Nickel
Weak fundamentals and a sharp drop in prices
Nickel prices have fallen sharply since June. In the context of the long-term pure nickel surplus of nickel itself, the fundamental support is not strong, so it fell significantly in the collective decline of non-ferrous metals. In the short term, the upstream margin of the industry is tightening. The approval progress of nickel ore in Indonesia is slow, and there is still a shortage of minerals. The downstream of the industry is weak, the stainless steel production schedule has declined, and the inventory has continued to accumulate since June; the production of ternary materials and precursors decreased; The demand for alloy plating is stable. On the whole, short-term nickel prices are mainly volatile.
6. Lithium carbonate
Strong supply and weak demand The market continued to decline
In June, the domestic lithium carbonate market declined. On the cost side, the current mine price is not falling as fast as the lithium price, and the cost inversion has appeared. The total inventory of lithium carbonate has reached a new high, the production schedule of lithium carbonate is still at a high level, and the supply pressure is still high. The demand side has entered the off-season as a whole, and the production schedule of cathode materials has declined. In June, orders from ternary cell factories decreased, and the demand for iron and lithium fell short of expectations. At the end of June, the downstream procurement situation was still cautious, and the outlook for the market outlook was pessimistic, and most of them were still dominated by long-term procurement. It is expected that the lithium carbonate market will be weak in the short term.