Contest & Time:
Euro 2024, 1/8 Finals (Match 5)
2024.07.02 00:00, France vs Belgium
Score prediction: France 2:1,1:1,1:0 Belgium (win,win,draw,draw)
How to describe this contest, it seems to be strong and weak, but in fact, it is a hidden murderous motive?!
ACCORDING TO THE PROBABILITIES OF FRANCE AND BELGIUM PUBLISHED BY FOOTBALL MEDIA "SCORE 90" AND "LIVE SCORE", THE ADVANTAGE OF THE GALLIC ROOSTERS IS STILL VERY CLEAR. After all, the chances of the European Red Devils advancing to the quarter-finals are actually only half that of their opponents.
However, it seems that this is exactly where the problem lies!
The French team is star-studded and has a strong lineup, but only finished second in the group stage, although this situation has something to do with Mbappe's injury, but in fact, the biggest problem of the Gallic Roosters at present may still be the run-in and tactical setting. When the ball arrives in the frontcourt, they don't know how to work better, and they can only rely on their individual ability to attack, which is a big problem for the French team at present. After all, if the French team had not changed, Belgium's tactics of copying Poland would not have been much different.
Belgium don't know if it's a psychological or tactical problem, but they are a bit confused along with Lukaku's bad luck. I want to find Lukaku, but I am afraid that the problem of body hair will be infinitely magnified and lead to failure. But if you don't attack around Lukaku, it's like you're missing a final pass point like a headless fly.
Therefore, the contest between France and Belgium can be regarded as a search for an offensive endpoint. As long as whoever can find the final endpoint more, in fact, the winner will be determined.
France
With no open goal in three games, is France considering a change in their line-up?
A comparison of one of the most exaggerated stats in the match against Poland shows that the current problems of the French team can be seen. They had a huge lead of 55:8 touches in the opponent's penalty area, but only scored one goal from the penalty spot with the expectation of 2.35 goals.
Therefore, Deschamps should not focus on the matter of restarting Giroud. After all, neither Mbappe nor Thuram can actually make the French team have a stable fulcrum in the penalty area to link more attacks later, and only through breakthroughs and passes and other ways of attacking, in fact, is not the way to solve the problem after all.
Of course, because especially in the form of the two giants of England and France in this World Cup, many people have to wonder whether it is really 1:0 or the ultimate pragmatism that only needs to win in the end is the main theme of European football at present.
This is like England in the early hours of this morning, you can fall behind and not so advantageous, but relying on individual ability to equalize and even overtake in the end, in fact, you still keep yourself in the next round.
Therefore, it may be that the French team will still adopt a constant impact to press the opponent's defense, and if it is really impossible to open the situation, of course, you can consider the introduction of Dembele, Coman or Giroud, etc., while maintaining the attacking threat, but also increasing the attacking method.
From this point of view, it must be the omnipotent Kante who determines the lower limit of the French team on the field. And off the field, it may be the ceiling of the French team that will be decided, it is still the current irreplaceable Giroud and the French bench he leads.
Then, the timing of substitutions may be an important prerequisite for determining the trend of the game!
Belgium
Is it because too many goals have been cancelled that have hampered confidence, or is it really getting uglier for the European Red Devils?
How to compare the current Belgium with the golden generation that once stayed in everyone's memory, perhaps the following points are a good example:
When Lukaku's running ability began to decline, Belgium's attacking ability began to lose its sharpness. So, maybe they also want to win 3:0, but it seems that they have reached the limit to 2:0. Therefore, playing ugly may also be a helpless move;
Doku and Trossard are not famous, after all, they both play in the Premier League. However, one is good at brainless breakthroughs and the other is perhaps more systematic and lacks character, so neither of them can help Belgium extend their advantage on the pitch. Therefore, Belgium can only be conservative;
Although Onana's ability is still trustworthy, the Belgian lineup, which is all attacking and pressing, must have one person to do the dirty work. Therefore, Onana's advantages could not be brought into play, which led to the lack of layered flanking and back-row insertion in Belgium's attack.
In this way, Belgium's current attack may only be simpler and more direct - or wait for a counterattack; Either the positional battle will continue to rely on Lukaku and look forward to the top scorer of the qualifiers.
After all, given the lack of quality in Belgium's own defence, they naturally can't play against France. So, maybe whether it is a counterattack or a positional battle, Lukaku's play will really decide the fate of the entire Belgian team!
There is extra time tonight, will there be a penalty tomorrow morning?
There will be, but the probability is not high!
After all, comparing the strength of the French team and Belgium, it can be seen that the gap between the two sides in the ability to win and control is actually an important prerequisite for affecting the trend of the game.
Extra-time tiebreaker? Probabilities exist!
If Belgium are willing to drop back and score first, they could have extended the game indefinitely. But whether there is still the physical strength to sprint with France in overtime may not be so optimistic.