With the joint efforts of all parties, the Shanghai Composite Index once again deducted 3,000 points, and the decline was temporarily stopped, and it was first regarded as a B-wave rebound. From the disc point of view, large-cap stocks are still playing the leading role, and are currently growing patient capital, and patient capital is dominated by the national team and social security pension funds, and these patient capital investment targets are mostly ETF broad-based index funds, so the current heavyweight stocks are performing better than small, medium and micro stocks. It is expected that before the July meeting, it is expected that the large-cap, value, and high-dividend stocks will provoke the A-share beam and prop up the A-share sky.
At the end of each month, the most important data is the PMI, whether the short-term economic cycle is expanding or contracting, only two key data are needed, one is M1 and the other is PMI. Above the boom and wither line, the PMI represents the initiative of enterprises to increase inventory, and the significant growth of M1 indicates that enterprises are preparing funds for the expansion of production capacity. There was a set of "contradictory" data in the manufacturing PMI in June: the manufacturing PMI of the Bureau of Statistics was 49.5%, and the Caixin manufacturing PMI was 51.8%. Previously, it was generally believed that the Bureau of Statistics counted large enterprises, and Caixin counted small and medium-sized private enterprises, but in the data of the Bureau of Statistics, the performance of small enterprises was not good:
According to the data of the Bureau of Statistics, the PMI of large, medium and small enterprises was 50.1%, 49.8% and 47.4% respectively, -0.6%, +0.4% and +0.7% from the previous month. In the eyes of the Bureau of Statistics, the PMI of small manufacturing enterprises has contracted very seriously, while in the eyes of Caixin, the PMI of small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises is thriving and expanding significantly. Why is there such a difference? This is because the SME of the Statistics Bureau is not the same as the SME of Caixin. In addition to scale, Caixin's SMEs are biased towards private, export-oriented, and coastal enterprises, while the Statistics Bureau is biased towards inland, above-designated size, and industrial enterprises. Although they are all small and medium-sized enterprises, most of the small and medium-sized enterprises in the National Statistics Bureau are oriented to domestic demand, and most of the small and medium-sized enterprises in Caixin are oriented to foreign demand.
It is reasonable to expect that in the first half of 2024, foreign trade will be the main support for China's economy, while consumption still has a lot of room to boost. Judging from the data of the previous May, the total value of imports and exports increased by 6.3%, and the social zero growth rate was 4.1%, which seems to be a limited gap, but it needs to be paid attention to: due to the high growth rate of mainland exports during the epidemic, imports and exports have been running at a high level in recent years. With the emergence of trade protection, especially the latest news of the U.S. imperialist election, Biden may have to withdraw, which is likely to lead to Sichuan Jianguo coming to power again, and in the second half of 2024, he cannot continue to rely on foreign trade, but must turn to domestic consumption.
The reason why China's foreign trade is strong is because of the "involution" made in China, China has rolled out the world's first commodity cost performance, at present, many countries around the world have high prices, but the mainland, "involution" is an important factor for the mainland to maintain low inflation. However, the export-oriented economy is not destined to become a long-term dependence of the economy, and may encounter trade protection, as well as the impact of cyclical crises in the global economy. If exports decelerate in the second half of the year, more production capacity will need to be digested in the domestic consumer market. The problem of contraction due to capacity overflow will be more prominent.
For policymakers, the lack of domestic demand needs to boost domestic demand, and it is necessary to avoid the formation of general economic contraction expectations, because such expectations will discourage consumers from spending, investors will not be afraid to invest, and once a consensus expectation is formed, it will exacerbate the severity of the problem. For investors, the country's pull on demand often contains broad investment opportunities. The essence of stimulating domestic demand is to spend money, and the main force of spending money is the government, the source of government spending, including tax, non-tax and national debt deficits, we also see that tax and non-tax revenues are shrinking in the first half of the year, so national bonds may be the best way to stimulate domestic demand.
If you have money, you have to spend money, and there are many areas where the government wants to spend money, but the focus is still on two major directions: new infrastructure and three major projects. Among them, the new infrastructure we have mentioned many times, but also the recent hot spots, that is, power equipment and communication equipment sector, these infrastructure institutions and state-owned enterprises jointly promoted, the pressure on the government's financial pressure is small, and the current iron and public machinery of the traditional infrastructure space is limited, if you have a heart in the near future, you will find that many roads in the country are being repaired, but the repair can not compare with the output value created by the new construction, so it is only to provide employment, can not provide profits for investors, but the improvement of power and communication facilities, in a higher value-added field, can provide profits. Therefore, since mid-May, it has been recommended that everyone pay attention to the nuclear power sector, it is possible to copy the trend of Yangtze River power, and today the nuclear power duo has hit a new high in the rebound, so in the fall, there will be some sectors that can ignore the market index and get out of the independent market.
Today's real estate sector is performing very well, I love my home, Gemdale, Poly, Vanke soared, the future three major infrastructure projects for the property market, namely affordable housing, urban village renovation and "flat and emergency" public infrastructure. Its sources of funds include the central government's special treasury bonds, the central bank's special credit line, local finance, local state-owned enterprises and other parties, among which the biggest beneficiary of the stock market is the concept of leasing, in the future, local state-owned enterprises will obtain the stock of housing from the urban village reconstruction project and rent it out in the name of affordable housing. In the future, the receiver of China's property market is 200 million farmers, and the purchasing power of farmers is limited, so it is impossible to activate demand by reducing interest rates and down payments, but to reduce the cost of farmers' housing, which is affordable housing, similar to Singapore's public housing plan. Therefore, the future of rental companies like I love my family is brighter than that of housing sales companies, especially state-owned housing rental enterprises.
Lv Changshun (Cairns) Certificate number: A0150619070003. [The above content only represents personal views and does not constitute a basis for trading, the stock market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious]