In the context of the stalemate in the Russian-Ukrainian war and the uncertain prospects of the war, Belarus has also stepped up its military deployment on the border, and the main rocket artillery of the Belarusian army, the Polonaise long-range rocket artillery, has reached the border.
According to the Beijing Daily on July 1, the Deputy Minister of Defense of Belarus publicly stated that the current situation is tense and the situation is not developing in a good direction, so the Belarusian troops have to transfer troops and artillery to the border and prepare bunkers. Moreover, the Belarusian side also stressed that the reason for their dispatch of troops was that the Belarusian border guards shot down 1 Ukrainian military drone near the border.
Although the operation of the Belarusian army did not lead to the escalation of the situation on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, the weapons and equipment used by the Belarusian army have attracted widespread attention from the outside world, because the Polonaise long-range rocket launcher they dispatched is a piece of equipment that uses Chinese technology, which is actually an "improved version" of the Belarusian long-range rocket launcher of the domestic A-200.
What is the origin of Polonaise long-range rocket artillery and China?
The range of the Polonaise long-range rocket artillery deployed by the Belarusian army this time reached 200 kilometers. On the surface, it is "foreign equipment", but in fact it is a domestic A-200 long-range rocket launcher, and after the Belarusian side bought the equipment from China, it also obtained the relevant technology of the rocket artillery, so it was installed on the chassis of the MZKT-7930 8×8 heavy truck produced in Belarus, so it became the Polonaise long-range rocket launcher.
It is precisely because the technology of this equipment comes from China that its caliber is quite high in accuracy on the basis of maintaining a large caliber of 300 mm, and the deviation is less than 30 meters. However, the deviation of Russia's main rocket artillery "Tornado" can only be less than 50 meters, not to mention that it is only 20 meters, and the actual battlefield damage effect is very different.
Moreover, the rocket artillery also adopts a modular design, which can be flexibly disassembled and assembled to cope with different combat environments, and if an extended-range projectile is used, its range is twice that of the Russian Tornado rocket artillery, which is quite a threat.
What role can Belarus play by deploying this artillery on the border?
Since this is a big killer, what kind of strategic considerations Belarus has for this move can be summarized in three points. The first is to directly deter the Ukrainian army, the range of the weapon is actually equivalent to short-range ballistic missiles, which can directly hit a number of important cities in Ukraine, and it is a threat to put it on the border.
The second is that Belarus shares a border with Poland and Ukraine, and the range of more than 200 kilometers can not only threaten the Ukrainian army, but also directly hit NATO weapons and ammunition depots on the Polish border and directly deter NATO.
The third is that the range of the rocket artillery covers the military aid and weapons transfer channel between Kyiv and NATO, if the Ukrainian army dares to make a move against Belarus, or Belarus is ready to send troops to help Russia, and directly fire a salvo of 10,000 artillery, the logistics channel between NATO and Ukraine will be directly interrupted.
Will Belarus really stand up for Russia?
Now that Belarus has put such important weapons and equipment on the border, the question arises whether Belarus will directly send troops to help Russia, as the outside world fears. If you look at the strategic location of Belarus, if Belarus makes a move, it must think about two consequences in advance.
First of all, Belarus is sandwiched right between Russia and NATO, Russia and the European Union. Therefore, their every move is to "take a trigger and move the whole body", once the Belarusian army strikes, NATO member Poland will be directly threatened, NATO may hold talks, from "resolutely not sending troops" to "considering sending troops", and the war situation may get out of control.
Second, Belarus also occupies the Suwałki corridor leading to the three Baltic countries, if Belarus enters the war, then the three Baltic countries, which are also NATO members, will face a direct military threat, and more importantly, Belarus has the northern passage directly to Kyiv, which can form a situation with Russia to flank Kyiv, and the probability of Ukraine's defeat will be greatly increased, can NATO accept the result of Ukraine's defeat? Therefore, if Belarus makes a move, the Russian-Ukrainian war will inevitably expand, and no one dares to guarantee whether it will turn into a world war.
How to interpret this military move by Belarus?
Combined with common sense, if it is only to prevent the military drones of the Ukrainian army, the Belarusian side can deploy more electronic reconnaissance equipment and UAV countermeasure equipment, as for the weapon similar to tactical missiles of rocket artillery, it is not prepared to deal with Ukrainian drones, it is more of a strategic countermeasure.
To quote the Deputy Minister of Defense of Belarus: the Belarusian army is ready to respond to any provocations and give the enemy a resolute counterattack. Obviously, what Belarus really wants to say is that the Belarusian army has 400,000 regular troops, and Belarus and Russia signed the Russian-Belarusian Union Treaty back in 1999, establishing relations similar to those of a confederation. If Ukraine tries to challenge Belarus, then Belarus will consider crossing the "red line" and sending troops directly, like Kadyrov Jr. in Chechnya, which may be the message that Belarus really wants to send.