在1944年6月22日，苏军发动了规模庞大的巴格拉季昂攻势，240万苏军对88万人的中央集团军群展开了毁灭性打击。 But if in May 1944 the German army was fully reduced on the Eastern Front and abandoned the Belarusian and Baltic regions, which were called the "Belorussian Terraces", would Germany have been able to hold out longer? Will the outcome of World War II change?
1944年5月份东线局势图
In May 1944, the map of the battle between Germany and the Soviet Union on the Eastern Front was very strange. Since both the Soviet Union and Germany focused their strategic efforts on the Ukrainian region from 1943 to the first half of 1944, the Soviet Union and Germany launched two large-scale battles around the Ukrainian region, namely the Battle of the Dnieper River and the Right-Bank Ukrainian Campaign, which completely drove the German army out of Ukraine.
But in the middle of the battlefield, the German Army Group Center was still firmly defending the Belarusian region, and the commander of the German Army Group Center, Field Marshal Busch, caused hundreds of thousands of Soviet casualties in the defensive battle in the first half of 1944, and the Soviet troops advanced only a pitiful eight kilometers. Because of this defensive battle, Busch was able to continue to lead Army Group Center.
But in five months, Army Group Center was in a very dangerous situation. In Belarus, the Germans formed a huge salient, which the Soviets affectionately called the "Belarusian balcony". It stands to reason that such a large salient needs a very large number of troops to defend, but at this time, Army Group Center was very short of troops, only more than 800,000 people, and the most important thing was the lack of armored troops, and the Third Panzer Army under its jurisdiction did not have a single tank.
德军撤出白俄罗斯阳台，局势会不会改变？
First of all, Army Group Center and Army Group North at that time were at each other's throats, and if Army Group Center were to withdraw from the Belarusian region, Army Group North would also have to withdraw from the Baltic states, so that the Germans would have to give up almost all the occupied Soviet territories. What is it that the German army fought to the death, and millions of people died? A hasty retreat would have seriously dampened the morale of the German army.
In addition, there was another reason why Germany could not retreat at that time, the Belarusian region and the Baltic region could form a strategic buffer zone, even if the German army was defeated in these areas, it could still retreat to Poland to regroup, which was equivalent to an extra insurance, if these areas were directly abandoned, then Germany could only retreat to Berlin.
Of course, the retreat is not without a little benefit, on the contrary, the benefit is very obvious, the most advantageous point is that there is no longer to worry about the problem of long logistics supply lines, Minsk is definitely far longer from the German mainland than the distance from the German mainland to Warsaw, once the retreat to the territory of Poland, the German army's logistics supply problem will be solved. In addition, Germany did not have to worry about the endless partisans, and the Belarusian partisans caused very heavy losses to the German army in history.
Finally, the Germans could also increase the density of their forces by shortening the defensive line, and in Operation Bagration, the Soviets took advantage of the disadvantage of the German army's lack of troops to annihilate more than 400,000 German troops. It can be expected that if the German army retreats to Poland, its defensive capability will be greatly improved, and it may be possible to withstand the attack of the Soviet Union.