Currencies & Liquidity Group
Zhang Jingjing S1090522050003 Chief Ma Ruichao S1090522100002 Team Leader
Report published: June 30, 2024
Key takeaways
During the cross-quarter period, the central bank accurately injected liquidity, the cost of funds remained high, and the phenomenon of liquidity stratification was prominent. The divergence between the performance of certificates of deposit and the capital side may reflect the disturbance of the short-term capital side and the market's optimistic expectation that the capital side will loosen after the cross-quarter. In the bond market, the bull market atmosphere continued, bond yields fell across the board, and short-term bonds blunted the performance of funds. The stock market continues to be under pressure, and the "seesaw" effect of stocks and bonds guides funds to continue to chase long-term bond products.
Currency liquidity review
Overseas LiquidityAs of June 26, the Financial Stress Index (OFR FSI) recorded -1.88, up 0.02 from last Friday, with a tightening margin. Among them, the financial stress indices of the United States, non-American developed countries and developing countries were -1.16, -0.53 and -0.2 respectively, a change of 0.04, 0.01 and -0.01 respectively from last week. Domestic liquid money market: This week, the central bank invested 750 billion yuan in reverse repurchase (7D), and 398 billion yuan was withdrawn at maturity, achieving a net investment of 352 billion yuan in a single week. There will be 750 billion reverse repos due in the coming week.
资金价格上，DR001、DR007均值分别为1.94%、2.09%，较上周变化：+7bp、+20bp；R001与R007均值分别为2.00%、2.30%，较上周变化：+7bp、+37bp。 交易所回购利率整体震荡上行，GC007均值为2.26%，较上周上升29bp；R007-DR007周均值为23bp，较上周上升19bp。
The daily turnover of interbank pledged repo was 5,558.4 billion yuan, down 557.1 billion yuan from last week. Among them, the average daily turnover of R001 was 4,316.7 billion yuan, and the average daily turnover of R007 was 1,103.3 billion yuan. The average daily turnover of new pledged treasury bond repurchases on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 1,798.9 billion yuan, an increase of 122 billion yuan from 6.17 to 6.21. Among them, the average daily turnover of GC001 was 1,554.9 billion yuan; The average daily turnover of GC007 was 160.8 billion yuan.
Interbank Certificate of Deposit:
This week, the total issuance of interbank certificates of deposit reached 612.8 billion yuan, and after the offset expired, the net financing scale was -184.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 472.3 billion yuan from last week. In terms of bank types, joint-stock commercial banks have the highest issuance scale and net financing. In terms of maturity, 3M certificates of deposit have the highest issuance scale, and 1Y certificates of deposit have the highest net financing amount.
In terms of the issuance interest rate in the primary market, as of June 28, the issuance interest rate of one-year state-owned banks was 1.96%, that of joint-stock banks was 1.99%, and that of city commercial banks was 2.18%; In terms of secondary market yields, as of Friday, the yield to maturity of the 1-year AAA certificate of deposit was 1.96%, down 7bp from last Friday. Among them, the yield of 1-year certificates of deposit of state-owned banks was 1.96%, and the yield of 1-year certificates of deposit of joint-stock banks was 1.97%. The maturity spread of interbank certificates of deposit decreased from last week. The spread between the yield on the 1-year AAA interbank certificate of deposit and the 1-year MLF rate was 55bp, up 7bp from last Friday. The average 1Y-3M term spread is 16bp and the average 1Y-6M term spread is 10bp.
Notes Market:
This week, the interest rate trend of 3M and 6M bills diverged. As of June 28, in the rediscount market, the rediscount rate of 3M national stocks (no agriculture, rural areas) closed at 1.03%, down 7bp from the previous month, and the rediscount rate of 6M national stocks (without agriculture, rural areas) closed at 1.30%, down 8bp from the previous month. In the direct discount market, the direct discount rate of 3M national stocks (no agriculture, agriculture and agriculture) closed at 1.28%, down 1bp from the previous month, and the direct discount rate of 6M national stocks (no agriculture, agriculture and agriculture) closed at 1.46%, up 1bp from the previous month.
Foreign exchange market:
For the week, the dollar index closed at 105.91, up 0.08% from last Friday. As of Friday (June 28), the central parity of the yuan closed at 7.1268, depreciating 0.10% from last week, the offshore yuan exchange rate was at 7.2996, depreciating 0.12% from the end of last week, and the onshore yuan exchange rate was at 7.2672, depreciating 0.09% from the end of last week. In terms of exchange rate indexes, as of June 21, the three major RMB exchange rate indices (CFETS, BIS, SDR) were reported at 99.97, 106.08 and 94.62 respectively, appreciating to varying degrees from last week. On Friday, the Wind RMB Exchange Rate Forecast Index closed at 99.0047, up 0.09% from last Friday. In terms of exchange rate difference, the spread between the RMB spot exchange rate and the central parity was 0.139 (previous value 0.142), and the exchange rate difference between the two places (CNH-CNY) was 324 basis points (previous value 296 basis points). This week, the cumulative net outflow of the Stock Connect was 11.762 billion yuan. Among them, the cumulative net outflow of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect was 2.831 billion yuan, and the cumulative net outflow of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect was 8.93 billion yuan.
A week of financial regulatory updates
Risk warning: domestic and foreign economic fundamentals have changed more than expected; Monetary policy exceeded expectations.
The above content is from the report "The Market for Blunted Funds - Tracking Monetary Liquidity (6.24-6.30)" on June 30, 2024, the author of the report, Ma Ruichao, license number S1090522100002, please refer to the research report for details.
Previous articles
20240630 Significant Strength in the Domestic Bond Market - Tracking of Asset Allocation in Major Categories (June 24-June 28)
20240630 The pressure of domestic demand is gradually transmitted to the production side - PMI comments in June
20240628 Profitability of midstream raw materials continues to improve - analysis of industrial enterprise profits in May
20240627 What is the impact of the rise of right-wing forces in Europe?
20240626 The implication of interest rate cuts narrowing the interest rate corridor
20240625 High-frequency data continues to hover at a low level: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 22, 2024)
20240625 Views of the Aggregate Volume of China Merchants Securities-Conference Call Minutes (20240623)
20240625 Fiscal revenue and expenditure need to be increased - comments on fiscal data in May
20240625 Unexpected shrinkage in open market operations - currency liquidity tracking (0617-0623)
20240624 Pressure on the resonance of US equities and the US dollar – Macro Weekly Outlook (23 June 2024)
20240624 Crude oil prices have risen by a large margin - tracking of major asset allocation (June 17-June 21)
20240623 Keeping the time in place – the mid-term domestic macroeconomic outlook for 2024
20240622 Pinghu Weilan – 2024 Medium-term Monetary Liquidity Outlook
20240619 Weak Supply and Demand of High-frequency Data in Investment Chain: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 21, 2024)
20240618 Real GDP growth in Q2 may be weaker than in Q1 – a review of economic data for May 2024
20240617 Macro Clues and Time Value of Assets – Macro Weekly Outlook (June 16, 2024)
20240617 DR007 Rises to 1.81% - Money Liquidity Tracker (0610-0616)
20240616 Crude Oil Prices Shift from Falling to Rising - Tracking of Asset Allocation (June 10-June 14)
20240615 The growth rate of social finance rebounded as scheduled
20240614 Look at the changes in M1 from multiple perspectives
20240614 U.S. CPI returns to the downward channel - U.S. CPI comments for May
20240613 Re-emphasizing that the election may be a policy watershed – comments from the June Fed interest rate meeting
20240613 Inflation pickup is expected to continue – May Inflation Review
20240612 The Decline in Investment Demand May Be Coming to an End – China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 20, 2024)
20240611 Domestic and Foreign Demand, Switching between Expected Strength and Weakness – Macro Weekly Views (June 9, 2024)
20240611 The physical workload of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the Yangtze River Delta has increased significantly: the marginal change of infrastructure real estate in May from a satellite perspective
20240610 What level of real estate investment is needed to stabilize employment in the next 2-3 years?
20240610 Funding price falls below the policy rate – money liquidity tracking (6.3-6.9)
20240610 Gold and crude oil fell sharply - tracking of asset allocation in large categories (June 3-June 7)
20240609 The key is to look at the implementation of policies - China's economy under the microscope (Issue 19, 2024) 20240608 Despite the non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations - analysis of US employment data in May 2024 20240608 Exports are expected to remain resilient - May 2024 import and export data review 20240604 What are the necessary conditions for successful debt reduction 20240602 External demand is gradually cooling - macro week view (June 2, 2024) 20240602 Weak performance of global major equity markets - tracking of asset allocation in large categories (May 27 - May 31)
20240601 Financial Risk Prevention Policy Heats Up - Currency Liquidity Tracking (May 27-May 31)
20240601 Upstream and downstream are fully active to replenish, and the midstream industry is differentiated--a review of the inventory data of the U.S. industry in March
20240531 Both domestic and foreign demand are under pressure - PMI comments in May
20240530 The logic of global assets under the two-wheel drive may be switched again
20240529 The crux of the current macroeconomy and the adjustment of policy ideas: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 18, 2024)
20240528 The next industry bright spot may be midstream equipment - analysis of industrial enterprise profits in April 2024
20240527 Domestic demand policy expected to be sustainable – Macro Week outlook (May 26, 2024)
20240527 Global Risk Appetite Generally Suppressed – Broad Asset Allocation Tracking (May 20-May 24)
20240526 PPI何时转正？
20240526 Rising Policy Expectations - Currency Liquidity Tracking (May 20-May 24)
20240525 The effectiveness of current real estate policies from the perspective of national practice
20240521 Rare Window Period: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 17, 2024)
20240521 technology, people's livelihood, and infrastructure spending all accelerated-April fiscal data commentary
20240520 What are the policy objectives? ——Macro Weekly Outlook (May 19, 2024)
20240520 MLF等额续作——货币流动性跟踪 (May 13-May 17)
20240520 Hong Kong stocks are still performing well - tracking of asset allocation in major categories (May 13-May 17)
20240519 Three conclusions on the current ranking of large asset β
20240518 External and domestic demand scissors are poor or at an extreme water level - April 2024 data review
20240517 Which countries are the focus of this year's Q2 country risks? -- Country Risk Series Study (3) 20240516 Continue to cool down the dollar and U.S. bonds -- U.S. CPI comments for April 20240515 U.S. tariffs again? The impact may be different from that of 2018 20240514 Aggregate high-frequency data is acceptable - China's economy under the microscope (Issue 16, 2024) 20240513 Foreign investment behavior is the key at present——Macro Weekly Views (May 12, 2024)20240512 How to look at social finance in April - April financial data review and discussion on the first quarter of the goods delivery report 20240512 Global major equity markets performed better - tracking of asset allocation in large categories (May 6-May 10)
20240511 Non-food CPI warmed up modestly as expected – April inflation commentary
20240511 Significant Decline in Funding Prices - Currency Liquidity Tracking (May 6-May 11)
20240510 Positive signals were released for both imports and exports - a review of import and export data for April 2024
20240509 Urgent need to issue bonds to promote new projects - the marginal changes in infrastructure real estate in April from a satellite perspective
20240508 Who will take over the export chain?
20240508 Minutes of the "Perspective of Aggregates" Conference Call on May 5, 2024 20240507 Credit off-season is not weak - April social finance data forecast 20240507 Manufacturing investment remains the main bright spot - April macroeconomic forecast report 20240506 Structural characteristics of household consumption recovery 20240505 Rapid changes - review of overseas macro events during the May Day holiday 20240504 Employment data cools the dollar and U.S. bonds—— Analysis of U.S. employment data in April 2024 20240503 upstream and downstream fully entered the active replenishment - comments on U.S. industry inventory data in February 20240502 No advance or retreat - comments on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May 20240502 Preventing and resolving risks in key areas in the process of development - comments on the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee 20240502 External demand outperformed domestic demand - April PMI comments 20240501 Breaking the deadlock - May interest rate outlook 20240501 What factors are driving the recovery in commodity prices in the investment chain? ——China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 15, 2024)20240430 Will the risk of currency depreciation in Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia spread? 20240429 Atypical Stagflation in the U.S. and Atypical Recovery in China - Macro Weekly Views (April 28, 2024) 20240429 Hong Kong Stocks Soar - Tracking of Asset Allocation in Categories (April 22-April 26) 20240428 Corporate Profit Growth Returns to a Reasonable Trend - Analysis of Industrial Enterprise Profits in March 20240428 Funding Prices Move Higher at the End of the Month - Liquidity Tracking Weekly Report
20240427 What is the impact of Mexico's tariffs?
20240426 Atypical Stagflation in the U.S. – A Review of U.S. GDP data for the first quarter of 2024
20240424 Is the U.S. stock correction over?
20240423 Price Indicator Performance Continues to Improve: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 14, 2024)
20240423 Pace of fiscal spending slowed down - comments on fiscal data in March
20240422 What is the core contradiction in Q2 – Macro Weekly Views (April 14, 2024)
20240422 Mainland Equity Market Performs Better: Tracking Asset Allocation (15 Apr – 19 Apr)
20240420 MLF has been shrinking for two consecutive months, and the sequel - Currency Liquidity Tracker Weekly Report
20240418 The macro logic and operating space of gold's rise
20240417 What else do you need to pay attention to besides a "good start"? -- Commentary on economic data for the first quarter of 2024
20240416 Significant Improvement in the Performance of Price Indicators - China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 13, 2024)
20240415 Export chain remains positive after March data disruption – Macro Weekly Outlook (14 April 2024)
20240415 Gold continues to rise sharply - tracking of asset allocation (April 8-April 12)
20240414 Export chain remains positive after March data disruption – Macro Week outlook (14 April 2024)
20240414 Gold continues to rise sharply - tracking the allocation of major asset categories (April 8-April 12)
20240414 What does it mean for the world to officially enter the era of "30+"?
20240413 Corporate credit outperformed the same period in history – a review of financial data for March
20240413 Improving trade in Asia is the bright spot – a review of import and export data for March 2024
20240412 There is a high probability that the CPI will rebound month-on-month in April - a review of inflation in March
20240411 It may be difficult to cut interest rates before the election - US CPI comments for March
Can CPI exceed 1% year-on-year in 20240410?
20240408 Increasing Necessity for Issuing Additional Treasury Bonds to Promote New Projects – Marginal Changes in Infrastructure Real Estate in March from a Satellite Perspective (April 7, 2024)
20240408 Per capita travel expenditure during the holiday exceeds pre-pandemic level for the first time – Macro Weekly Outlook (7 April 2024)
20240407 Gold and crude oil both rose sharply - tracking of asset allocation in large categories (April 1-April 5)
20240406 Q2 is almost impossible to cut interest rates - analysis of US employment data for March 2024
20240405 March social finance data forecast
20240404 Q1 may be higher than last year's annual growth rate - macroeconomic forecast report (March 2024)
20240403 Some Policy Clues in High-Frequency Data: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 12, 2024)
20240402 Reconfirmation of U.S. Voluntary Replenishment – A Review of U.S. Industry Inventory Data for January 2024
20240401 Domestic risk appetite may improve further – Macro Weekly Outlook (31 March 2024 20240401 How do you see the momentum of crude oil trends? ——Crude oil on the supply side (1)
20240331 Which industries benefit from the active replenishment of the internal weak and the external strong? ——March PMI Comments 20240331 Gold Hit a New Record High - Asset Allocation Tracking (March 25-March 29)
20240330 Revisiting Chinese-style QE - Q1 Liquidity Report
20240327 What are the concerns other than a low base? -- Analysis of the profits of industrial enterprises from January to February
20240326 Why there is a big divergence between high-frequency production data and aggregate data: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 11, 2024)
20240325 Switching between Exchange Rates, Stocks, Bonds and Liquidity: Macro Weekly Views (March 24, 2024)
20240324 All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher - tracking of major asset allocation (March 18-March 22)
20240322 The role of trillion national bonds is highlighted - a review of fiscal data from January to February
20240321 Left and Right - Comments on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in March
20240320 What do you think of the Bank of Japan ending negative interest rates and YCC?
20240320 Minutes of the March 17, 2024 "Perspectives on the Total" conference call
20240319 What factors drove the economy to exceed expectations at the beginning of the year? -- Comments on economic data from January to February
20240318 Things are changing, just not as fast – Macro Weekly Outlook (17 March 2024)
20240318 Commodity Prices Have Weakened Significantly Recently – China's Economy Through the Microscope (Issue 10, 2024)
20240317 U.S. 10 bond yields have risen significantly - tracking the allocation of major types of assets (March 11-March 15)
20240316 Medium and long-term loans of enterprises show signs of stabilization - comments on financial data in February
20240313 U.S. core inflation continues to be strong – US February CPI commentary
20240311 Changing policy tone – Macro Week Perspectives (10 March 2024)
20240309 Interest rate cut expectations turn from weak to strong again - analysis of US employment data for February 2024
20240308 Incremental increase in building construction: the marginal change of infrastructure real estate in February from a satellite perspective
20240307 Global external demand is still resilient - a review of import and export data from January to February 2024
20240306 Fiscal expansion in a broad sense is not conservative -- comments on the government work report
20240305 Accelerating the resumption of work: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 8, 2024)
20240304 How much uncertainty is there in the capital markets? Macro Week Outlook (March 3, 2024)
20240303 The U.S. may have entered active replenishment - a review of U.S. industry inventory data in December 2023
20240303 Long-term interest rates on domestic bonds continue to decline - tracking of asset allocation in major categories (February 26-March 1)
20240301 Mixed Breakdown – February PMI Reviews
20240229 Is M1 strength short-lived?
20240228 Commodities: The wind rises at the end of Qingping
20240227 5 Characteristics of High-frequency Data in the First Week After the Holiday: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 7, 2024)
20240226 Variables to be confirmed in the coming weeks – Macro Weekly Outlook (25-Feb-2024)
20240225 Domestic stocks and bonds are both strong - tracking of asset allocation in major categories (February 19-February 23)
20240220 Is the rally in U.S. stocks sustainable? ——U.S. Equities Research Series (1)
20240219 M1, some macro clues from satellite data and holiday spending – Macro Week Outlook (18 February 2024)
20240219 Hong Kong stocks rose for many days after the holiday - tracking of major asset allocation (February 5-February 16)
20240218 Highlights of domestic data during the Spring Festival holiday
20240217 List of overseas macro events during the Spring Festival holiday
20240214 Inflationary pressures in the services sector persist – US CPI review for January
20240209 Slowdown in the increment of construction - the marginal change of infrastructure real estate in January from a satellite perspective
20240208 Chinese New Year dislocation disrupts CPI readings – January inflation commentary
20240112 High prices are the key - US December CPI commentary
20240111 How do you see the marginal change in the U.S. inventory cycle?
20240110 High-frequency indicators on both sides of supply and demand in the manufacturing industry remain low: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 2, 2024)
20240109 Significant increase in the increment of building construction - the marginal change of infrastructure real estate in December from a satellite perspective
20240108 The Good News Is Low Expectations – Macro Weekly Outlook (January 7, 2024)
20240107 Global Major Equity Markets Are Underperforming - Broad Asset Allocation Tracking (January 2-January 5)
20240106 The market's preemptive expectations for interest rate cuts are facing adjustments - analysis of US employment data for December 2023
20240105 Forecast of social finance data for December
20240105 Full-Year Economic Targets Expected to Be Achieved – Macroeconomic Forecast Report (December 2023)
20240104 Weakening Supply and Demand in the Manufacturing Sector: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 1, 2024)
20240103 Promoting Stability through Progress: Interpretation of the 2023 China Financial Stability Report
20230102 Temporary Continuation of Weak Seasonality – Macro Weekly Outlook (31 Dec 2023)
20230101 Production is still better than demand – December PMI comments
20231231 Sharp appreciation of the RMB exchange rate - tracking of asset allocation in major categories (December 25-December 29)
20231228 Earnings continue to improve: Midstream> upstream> downstream – Profit analysis of industrial companies, November 2023
20231227 How to understand the economic imbalances within the eurozone? -- European Economic Structure Research Series 1
20231226 The end of the cold wave and the rebound of production: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 47, 2023)
20231225 Cold spell temporarily strengthens seasonality – Macro Week outlook (24 December 2023)
20231225 Domestic long-term and short-term interest rates are declining - tracking of major asset allocation (December 18-December 22)
20231224 What changes have taken place in exports this year?
20231223 Will the BOJ exit YCC and negative interest rates in 2024?
20231221 Waiting for the issuance of additional treasury bonds to form expenditures - a review of November fiscal data
20231219 Weakening of High-Frequency Indicators - China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 46, 2023)
20231219 Perspective of China Merchants Securities' Aggregate Volume - Conference Call Minutes (20231217)
20231218 Consensus and Divergence – Macro Weekly Perspectives (17 December 2023)
20231217 10年美债下行幅度较大 ——大类资产配置跟踪(12/11-12/15)
20231216 The annual economic growth rate is likely to exceed 5% - a review of the economic data in November
20231215 What do you think of the financial data for November?
20231215 pivot or continue to move downward - US November CPI review
20231214 Variables in U.S. Treasuries after the end of interest rate hikes – December FOMC commentary
20231213 Five points of understanding of the Central Economic Work Conference
20231212 Cement Production Falls Sharply – China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 45, 2023)
20231211 Continuation of the "wave" recovery pattern – Macro Week outlook (10 December 2023)
20231211 Building stock continued to decline, and roads improved significantly - the marginal change of infrastructure real estate in November from a satellite perspective
20231211 Gold Prices Turned Down: Tracking of Asset Allocation (December 4-December 8)
20231210 Reflation is still expected – November inflation review
20231209 What is the meaning of "first establish and then break"? -- Comments on the Politburo meeting
20231209 U.S. bonds may once again enter a wait-and-see period - analysis of U.S. employment data for November 2023
20231208 60 years of U.S. stocks and their political cycles
20231205 Steel Production Situation Continues to Improve: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 44, 2023)
20231204 Still at the end of passive destocking – Macro Weekly Views (December 3, 2023)
20231203 Divergence of Risk Appetite in Global Markets: Tracking of Asset Allocation in Major Categories (November 27-December 1)
20231201 Adapting to the new characteristics of money and credit – the outlook for monetary liquidity in 2024
20231201 Winter and spring - November PMI review
20231130 Returning to potential growth – domestic macroeconomic outlook for 2024
20231128 The performance of high-frequency indicators continues to improve: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 43, 2023)
20231127 Stronger on the production side than on the demand side – Macro Weekly Outlook (26 Nov 2023)
20231126 Strong rebound of the RMB exchange rate - tracking of asset allocation in major categories (November 20-November 24)
20231123 Fiscal revenue and expenditure improved simultaneously - a review of fiscal data in October
20231122 High-frequency indicators stop falling and rebound - China's economy under the microscope (Issue 42, 2023)
20231120 A New Economic Platform, Breakthroughs Must Be Worked Hard: Macro Weekly Views (19 November 2023)
20231119 U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar fell sharply - tracking the allocation of major asset categories (Nov 13-Nov 17)
20231118 Key Consensus of the 2023 APEC Summit
20231117 Review: Asset performance after the Fed's rate hikes ended
20231116 Anchor of next year's economic growth - a review of economic data in October
20231115 Cooling down as scheduled - US CPI review for October
20231115 The Domestic Economy Enters the Off-Season: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 41, 2023)
20231114 What do you think of the financial data in October?
20231113 How do you see the internal and external marginal changes? ——Macro Weekly Outlook (November 12, 2023)
20231113 Crude oil prices have fallen significantly - tracking of major asset allocation (November 6-November 10)
20231112 Can undervalued U.S. consumption continue to exceed expectations? -- Also talking about the outlook for U.S. consumption in 2024
20231111 Slight decline in construction - the marginal change of infrastructure real estate in October from a satellite perspective
20231110 When will it pick up again? -- October inflation commentary
20231109 Causes of asset price differentiation and conditions for convergence
20231108 Why does export growth remain low? ——Comments on import and export data in October 2023
20231107 Short-term data fluctuations are not the main contradiction of the current A-share trend: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 40, 2023)
20231105 How do you see the global manufacturing PMI cooling down in October? ——Macro Week Outlook (November 5, 2023)
20231105 Insight Cycle: Where is the U.S.-China Inventory Cycle?
20231105 Global Major Equity Markets Rebound Significantly - Tracking of Asset Allocation (October 30-November 3)
20231104 Employment data turned worse as expected – analysis of US employment data for October
20231104 What do you think of the BOJ's fine-tuning of YCC? -- Comments on the Bank of Japan's October monetary policy decision
20231031 Several sets of high-frequency data worth paying attention to: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 39, 2023)
20231031 "Tight balance" of funds - October liquidity monthly report
20231030 Can Proactive Fiscal Boost Sentiment Further? ——Macro Weekly Outlook (October 29, 2023)
20231029 Overseas layout of domestic enterprises: region, field, growth rate
20231029 Domestic Equity Market Performs Well - Tracking of Asset Allocation (October 23-October 27)
20231028 The signal of the shift to active replenishment is becoming more obvious - analysis of the profits of industrial enterprises in September 2023
20231027 Why did U.S. stocks fall after the Q3 data release? -- Commentary on US GDP data for the third quarter of 2023
20231027 Fiscal enthusiasm continues to improve - comments on September fiscal data
20231026 Fundamentals Continue to Improve - China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 38, 2023)
20231025 Two key changes regarding the issuance of additional treasury bonds
20231024 This round of interest rate hikes is not the same as an analysis of U.S. fiscal stress
20231023 Changes in the tone of domestic and foreign policies are key – Macro Week Perspectives (22 October 2023)
20231022 Global Major Equity Markets Fall - Asset Allocation Tracking (Oct. 16-Oct. 20)
20231019 What are the main outcomes of the Belt and Road Summit?
20231018 Where can the inner life of the larger-than-expected recovery be? -- Comments on economic data for the third quarter
20231017 Rapid Rebound in Production: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 37, 2023)
20231016 U.S. 10 bond yields fall from high levels - tracking asset allocation in major categories (October 9-October 13)
20231016 There is still room for the economy to recover – Macro Week Outlook (15 October 2023)
20231015 Government bonds support social finance - a review of financial data in September
20231014 Focus on the structural characteristics of reflation – September inflation review
20231014 Highlights and outlook of export structure - comments on import and export data in September
20231013 Construction is basically stable: the marginal change of infrastructure real estate in September from a satellite perspective
20231013 Inflation can't eliminate FED policy divergence – US CPI commentary for September
20231012 How competitive are China's major export chains? ——Export Topic (4)
20231011 Fluctuations in high-frequency production data due to long holidays - China's economy under the microscope (Issue 36, 2023)
20231010 Improving Domestic Demand – Macro Weekly Outlook (8 October 2023)
20231008 Which stage of the overseas market is most like this holiday?
20231007 Continued stress test overseas - analysis of US employment data for September
20231006 Spatial estimation of consumption recovery
20231005 Increasing Importance of Monetary and Fiscal Coordination - September Liquidity Monthly Report
20231004 Assess the default risk of U.S. corporate bonds in 7 dimensions
20231003 What is the competitiveness of the five major industrial chains such as automobiles and machinery? -- Dismantling of key export industry chains
20231001 Towards the full-year economic target – September macroeconomic forecast
20230930 After breaking through the boom and bust line, how will the manufacturing PMI go? - September PMI review
20230927 Profit growth in the current month has turned significantly positive - analysis of industrial enterprise profits in August 2023
20230926 Domestic Economic Activity Continues to Improve: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 35, 2023)
20230925 Increasing Positives – Macro Weekly Outlook (24 September 2023)
20230924 Mainland equity market performed well – tracking asset allocation in major categories (18 Sep-22 Sep)
20230923 What is the relationship between long-term bond interest rates and government leverage? - Emerging Countries
20230921 A soft landing is not the primary goal – comments from the September Fed meeting
20230920 Logistics Data Continues to Pick Up: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 34, 2023)
20230919 Two factors and four quadrants, the performance and outlook of various types of assets
20230918 Increasing certainty of economic recovery – Macro Week outlook (17 September 2023)
20230917 Revenues slow, spending is strong – August fiscal data commentary
20230917 RMB exchange rate rebounds and rebounds - tracking of asset allocation in major categories (September 11-September 15)
20230916 As the economy picks up, what is the progress of the annual target? -- Comments on economic data in August
20230915 Escort capital - MLF operation comments and RRR cuts in September
20230914 Wait patiently for employment to beat inflation - US CPI review for August
20230913 The effect of the policy has been shown in the second-hand housing listing index in first-tier cities: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 33, 2023)
20230912 August financial data review
20230912 Construction continues to pick up - marginal changes in infrastructure real estate in August from a satellite perspective
20230911 Industrial Policy Relay Aggregate Policy – Macro Weekly Views (10 September 2023)
20230911 The sustainability of consumption recovery and the signal of the bottom of investment and exports---the macroeconomic situation during the year
20230910 Crude oil prices have risen significantly - tracking of major asset allocation (September 4-September 8)
20230910 Inflation picked up as expected, and the dynamic structure is the key - August inflation review
20230908 What High-Frequency Indicators Should Be Paid Attention to at Present: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 32, 2023)
20230906 What is the relationship between long-term bond interest rates and government leverage? - Developed countries
20230905 Return to Accommodative - Analysis of the Central Bank's Financial Statements
20230904 Gaining momentum – Macro Weekly Outlook (3 September 2023)
20230904 Global Major Equity Markets Generally Rise - Asset Allocation Tracking (August 28 - September 1)
20230902 We are standing on the left side of the Fed's first-order guiding inflection point for policy – the analysis of US employment data for August 2023
20230901 Positives are accumulating - the August macroeconomic forecast report
20230831 September manufacturing PMI is expected to return to the boom and bust line - August PMI review
20230830 Bank of Japan's Policy Shift: Black Swan Turns Grey Rhino – Overseas Liquidity Series (1)
20230829 When will the fragile balance between supply and demand be broken: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 31, 2023)
20230828 Three Steps to Turn: Stabilize, Revitalize, Boost – Macro Weekly Outlook (27 August 2023)
20230828 The decline in the cumulative growth rate of profits continues to narrow - analysis of profits of industrial enterprises in July 2023
20230827 Gold prices have risen sharply - tracking of asset allocation in major categories (August 21 - August 25)
20230827 No need to subscribe for a mortgage: what is the macro impact?
20230826 Jackson Hole: What is the signal from the global central bank meeting?
20230825 Global Competitiveness of Chinese Enterprises Series (III) – Industrial Transfer and Long-term Exports from the Perspective of Global Value Chains
20230824 Global Competitiveness of Chinese Enterprises Series (II) - Competitiveness and Product Dependence on Export Changes
20230823 Global Competitiveness of Chinese Enterprises Series (1) - Which Commodity Export Growth Rates Are Expected to Pick Up in the Second Half of the Year?
20230822 Improving Production and Weakening Prices: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 30, 2023)
20230821 The Turn is in Progress – Macro Week Outlook (August 20, 2023)
20230820 Global Capex Upward Cycle under Value Chain Reshaping - Global Value Chain Reshaping Series (1)
20230820 Risk Aversion in the Equity Market Heats Up -- Asset Allocation Tracking (August 14 - August 18)
20230818 Tone Loosening - Interpretation of the Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Second Quarter
20230817 Industrial Transfer and Long-term Exports from the Perspective of Global Value Chains: Export Topics (3)
20230816 Asymmetric interest rate cut with loose price and tight volume - August MLF operation review
20230816 Aggregate Characteristics, Quantitative Estimates and Structural Highlights – A Review of Economic Data for July
20230814 Short-term disruptions need to wait for policy breakthroughs – Macro Week Perspectives (13 August 2023)
20230813 Where is the inventory cycle in various industries? - The second in the series of inflection points of the cycle
20230813 Crude Oil Prices Continue to Rise - Broad Asset Allocation Tracking (Aug 7 - Aug 11)
20230812 Deposits and loans fell simultaneously - a review of financial data in July
20230812 Construction Increases and Stops Falling: Marginal Changes in Infrastructure Real Estate in July from a Satellite Perspective
20230811 Core CPI may fall rapidly - US July CPI review
20230810 Did the overseas risk domino start?
20230810 Core Inflation Starts to Improve MoM – July Inflation Review
20230809 Seeing Through the Inventory Cycle: Underlying Logic, Path Forecasting, and Asset Mapping – Part of a series on "Inflection Points in the Cycle."
20230809 The low point of export growth in the current month of this year has reached - a review of import and export data in July 2023
20230808 Pay attention to the export situation after the export container freight index stabilizes: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 28, 2023)
20230808 Changes in Exports from the Perspective of Competitiveness and Product Dependence: Special Topic on Exports (II)
20230807 Mysterious Currency Swap - Lifting the "Veil" of Exchange Rates Part III
20230807 Slow is Fast – Macro Weekly Perspectives (6 August 2023)
20230806 Which commodity export growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year? ——Export Topic (1)
20230806 Treasury yields continue to rise - tracking asset allocation in broad categories (July 31 - August 4)
20230805 Which countries have increased their country risk this year?
20230805 The unemployment rate is the core contradiction - analysis of US employment data for July 2023
20230804 South Korea's Industrial Upgrading Path: From Export-Oriented to Technologically and Cultural Power
20230803 What is the impact of the downgrade of the US rating?
20230802 The year-on-year bottom of a number of indicators appeared - the July macroeconomic forecast report
20230801 What high-frequency indicators can we pay attention to after the Politburo meeting in July - China's economy under the microscope (Issue 27, 2023)
20230801 Conditions for the manufacturing PMI to return to the boom and bust line - July PMI review
20230731 Risk appetite and fixed investment growth will pick up in tandem – Macro Weekly Outlook (30 July 2023)
20230730 What kind of harvest will be in the autumn - the context of asset allocation in large categories (Q3 2023)
20230730 Hong Kong stocks and A-shares both rose significantly - tracking of asset allocation in major categories (July 24-July 28)
20230729 Why is the U.S. economy less sensitive to FED rate hikes?
20230729 U.S. Q2 Economy in the Rising Capital Expenditure Cycle - A Review of U.S. GDP Data for the Second Quarter of 2023
20230728 August reversal - analysis of the central bank's financial statements in June
20230728 Profit growth continues to climb - analysis of industrial enterprise profits in June
20230727 Asset pricing logic begins to change - comments on the July Fed interest rate meeting
20230726 Evidence of Improvement of Economic Endogenous Momentum in High-Frequency Data: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 26, 2023)
20230725 What information "exceeds expectations"? -- Comments on the Politburo meeting
20230724 What kind of policies is the market waiting for? ——Macro Weekly Outlook (July 23, 2023)
20230723 Domestic Bond Market Strengthens – Broad Asset Allocation Tracker (July 17 - July 21)
20230721 U.S. Stocks from the Perspective of the Inventory Cycle of Various U.S. Industries - Overseas Inventory Cycle Series (2)
20230720 Where is the inventory cycle in various industries in the United States? ——Overseas Inventory Cycle Series (1)
20230719 Poor Expectation of Consumption Demand in Household Income and Expenditure Data: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 25, 2023)
20230719 Perspective of the total volume of China Merchants Securities-Conference Call (20230716)
20230718 There is still work to be done in the second half of the year - Q2 economic data review
20230717 Which structures have internal and external resonance opportunities? ——Macro Week Outlook (July 16, 2023)
20230717 The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has rebounded sharply - tracking the allocation of major types of assets (July 10-July 14)
20230716 After falling below 100, how does the dollar go?
20230715 The bottom of export growth will be present - a review of import and export data in June 2023
20230715 Three highlights of the central bank's press conference
20230714 Open the Expectations Management Toolbox – Lifting the "Veil" of Exchange Rates Part 2
20230713 In the second half of the year, the core is down, and the non-core rebounds - US June CPI review
20230713 The imbalance between supply and demand of second-hand housing intensified last week: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 24, 2023)
20230712 The growth rate of social finance may start a low-slope rebound - a review of financial data in June
20230711 What it means for inflation to bottom out – June inflation commentary
20230710 Why are products the most sensitive? – Macro Week Outlook (July 9, 2023)
20230709 Revisiting the structural changes in the United States: employment, economic dislocation, and lifestyle habits
20230709 Global Major Equity Market Downturn - Tracking of Asset Allocation in Major Categories (July 3-July 7)
20230708 Equilibrium sets the stage for weaker employment – analysis of US employment data for June
20230706 Japan's "lost 30 years" stock and bond exchange exchange was fully restored
20230705 What are the highlights of Japan's "lost 20 years" economy?
20230704 Domestic Supply and Demand Are Establishing a New Equilibrium: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 23, 2023)
20230703 Q3 economy is likely to improve month-on-month – Macro Weekly Views (July 2, 2023)
20230703 Sentiment in the Domestic Bond Market Warms from Caution - Tracking of Asset Allocation in Major Categories (June 26-June 30)
20230702 Why are we not pessimistic about the RMB exchange rate?
20230701 Warm Breeze - Macroeconomic Forecast Report for June
20230630 Trade-offs – June PMI review
20230629 Why is Japan deflationary for so long?
20230628 Profits Climb Slowly - Analysis of Industrial Enterprises' Profits in May
20230627 Drawdown after interest rate cuts: An analysis of the central bank's financial statements in May
20230626 What factors will upset the temporary equilibrium? ——Macro Weekly Outlook (June 25, 2023)
20230626 Global Major Equity Markets Fall - Broad Asset Allocation Tracking (June 19-June 23)
20230625 What are the overseas concerns during the Dragon Boat Festival?
20230624 Recapturing the "Lost 30 Years": Characteristics and Challenges of the Japanese Economy
20230623 Picture of the Day: June Collection
20230622 Picture of the Day: May Collection
20230621 Unconventional but not expected 10BP - June 2023 LPR quotation review
20230620 The stage of rapid month-on-month decline in China may be over: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 22, 2023)
20230619 When Value for Money Is High Enough – Macro Weekly Outlook (June 18, 2023)
20230619 Bond Market Deduction of Bullish Exhaustion Market - Tracking of Major Asset Allocation (June 12-June 16)
20230618 The Dawn of Light – The Context of Asset Allocation (June 2023)
20230617 High-frequency Price Indicators Show Signs of Stopping Falling and Stabilizing - China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 21, 2023)
20230616 U.S. CPI slows at an accelerated pace, as expected – US May CPI commentary
20230616 Macro logic has entered a critical stage - a review of economic data in May
20230615 After the real interest rate turned positive, it was a retreat - a comment on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June
20230614 "Weak Social Finance" Breaks the Gap Period of Monetary Policy - A Review of Financial Data in May
20230613 Value of Waiting – A Preview of MLF Operations in June
20230612 Divergence data no longer hits the market – Macro Weekly Outlook (11 June 2023)
20230611 Bond Market Strengthened, Equity Closed Slightly Higher--Tracking of Major Asset Allocation (June 5-June 9)
20230611 Suppose the export recovery coincides with the FED rate cut in H2
20230610 Marginal changes in infrastructure real estate in May from a satellite perspective
20230609 Inflation Month-on-Month Significance Rises – May Inflation Commentary
20230608 Where does the exit go after changing gears as scheduled? ——Comments on import and export data in May 2023
20230607 Another Scenario of the Economy in the Second Half of the Year – China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 20, 2023)
20230605 Positives start to emerge – Macro Weekly Outlook (June 4, 2023)
20230604 Crude oil, the inventory cycle and the delicate state of the dollar
20230604 Market Risk Appetite Has Rebounded - Tracking of Asset Allocation in Major Categories (May 29-June 2)
20230603 Space for fiscal policy
20230603 Is the non-farm payrolls the end of the crossbow? -- Analysis of U.S. employment data in May
20230602 Plans for action – 2023 Medium-term Monetary Liquidity Outlook
20230601 Waiting for the dawn – 2023 mid-term domestic macroeconomic outlook
20230601 Data slides to the lower line of the target - PMI review for May
20230531 The Impact of Falling Price Levels – China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 19, 2023)
20230530 Is the U.S. Debt Ceiling Risk Lifted?
20230529 Policy focus may shift – Macro Weekly Outlook (28 May 2023)
20230528 A-shares and Hong Kong stocks fell sharply - tracking of asset allocation in major categories (May 22-May 26)
20230527 Profit growth rate of midstream equipment manufacturing industry has rebounded significantly - profit analysis of industrial enterprises in April 2023
20230525 Can the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises turn positive this year?
20230524 Production Situation Continues to Weaken - China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 18, 2023)
20230523 Cost of debt is an obstacle to the LPR cut - LPR quotation review in May
20230522 could it be worse? ——Macro Week Outlook (May 21, 2023)
20230521 The US dollar rebounded, and gold fell sharply - tracking the allocation of large asset classes (May 15-May 19)
20230520 Five main outcomes of the Central Asia Summit: Comments on the Central Asia Summit
20230519 Is there continued depreciation pressure on the RMB?
20230519 Accelerating the pace of fiscal revenue and expenditure - comments on fiscal data for April 2023
20230518 Is there really moisture in the export data?
20230517 Investment Demand May Still Be Declining – China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 17, 2023)
20230517 Where is the road to recovery – a review of economic data for April
20230515 Which is more important, "weak" or "recovery"? Macro Week Outlook (May 14, 2023)
20230514 Global Major Equity Markets Underperform – Asset Allocation Tracking (May 8-May 12)
20230513 It's time to talk about inventory cycles again
20230512 Marginal changes in infrastructure real estate in April from a satellite perspective
20230512 Behind the contraction of residents' deposits and loans - comments on financial data in April
20230511 Triple Cycle Suppression, When Will Inflation Stabilize – April Inflation Review
20230511 U.S. inflation ushered in a key sub-item inflection point - U.S. CPI review for April
20230510 Should the growth rate of exports be shifted? ——Comments on import and export data in April
20230509 How Does a Split in the Two Chambers Affect the U.S. Debt Ceiling?
20230508 Where did the day-to-day credit go
20230507 Strengthening the Economic Bottom – Macro Weekly Perspectives (7 May 2023)
20230506 Employment resilience will trigger fluctuations in FED policy expectations – analysis of US employment data for April 2023
20230505 What is the anchor for switching between "counter-cyclical" and "trans-cyclical"? - "Employment-inflation" policy framework
20230504 How far is it from cutting interest rates? -- Fed's May FOMC commentary
20230503 The strong recovery of the service sector will not be short-lived – China's economy under the microscope (Issue 16, 2023)
20230502 Will the central bank be the next black swan?
20230501 Bond Market Strengthens Significantly: Tracking Asset Allocation in Major Categories (April 24-April 28)
20230430 Three logics are further strengthened - April PMI review
20230429 Hot and Cold Inequities – Macroeconomic Forecasts (April 2023)
20230428 Fed rate hike: the beginning of the end - US Q1 GDP review
20230428 Improving quality, stabilizing quantity, and preventing risks -- the three main points of the Politburo meeting
20230427 How the divergence between reality and expectation converges - the context of asset allocation
20230427 Profits of industrial enterprises began to climb - analysis of profits of industrial enterprises in March
20230426 Three questions about the risks of commercial real estate in the United States
20230425 Highlights of the April Politburo Meeting: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 15, 2023)
20230424 How do you see the changes in the logic of economic operation and policy thinking? ——Macro Weekly Outlook (April 23, 2023)
20230424 Risk Aversion Drives Equity Market Correction - Tracking of Asset Allocation (April 17-April 21)
20230423 Why is the RMB exchange rate "not moving"?
20230421 Highlights from the Q1 financial data conference
20230420 along three trails – economic highlights during the recovery shift period
20230419 Front-loaded efforts to stabilize revenue and increase expenditure--Comments on fiscal data in March 2023
20230419 Service Consumption and Exports May Be the Decisive Factors for Economic Success in the Second Quarter: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 14, 2023)
20230418 Strong Reality Under Weak Expectations - A Review of Economic Data in the First Quarter
20230417 Two indicators confirm the 'position' of the economy – Macro Weekly Outlook (16 April 2023)
20230416 When the interest rate cut game is in progress - comments on the 2023Q1 monetary policy meeting
20230416 Bond Market Reacts to Economic Fundamentals in a Dull Manner: Tracking Asset Allocation in Major Categories (April 10-April 14)
20230414 Necessarily more than accidental - comments on import and export data for March 2023
20230413 Which assets are not yet Price-in, and the prospect of an accelerated pullback in US inflation? -- March US CPI review
20230412 Start or end? -- Comments on financial data in March
20230412 Why Recovery and "Deflation" Coexist – March Inflation Review
20230411 The Policy Environment Will Continue to Optimize in the Critical Period of Stabilizing Employment - China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 13, 2023)
20230410 is expected to be repaired; Momentum of RMB Accumulation Appreciation – Macro Weekly Outlook (9 April 2023)
20230409 Marginal changes in infrastructure real estate in March from a satellite perspective
20230408 U.S. employment supply-demand gap accelerates repair – analysis of U.S. employment data for March
20230407 What are the differences in the choice and performance of overseas layout in different industries?
20230406 Standing at the starting point of RMB internationalization: Discuss the changes in the research paradigm of macro and large asset classes
20230405 FED faced with a dilemma? Probably, the problem is not complicated
20230404 Improving Supply and Shifting Demand: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 12, 2023)
20230404 Minutes of the April 2, 2023 "Perspectives on the Total" conference call
20230403 Rising Expectations – Macro Weekly Outlook (2 April 2023)
20230402 Data variance convergence; Social Finance Continues to Improve – Macroeconomic Forecast for March
20230402 The recovery of risk appetite drives the upward movement of the equity market - tracking the allocation of major types of assets (March 27-March 31)
20230401 Recovery is about to enter a shift period – March PMI review
20230331 Little Lotus showed its sharp corners, and expectations began to change
20230330 How can central bank structural tools help consumption?
20230329 Policy Support is Still Needed for Continued Demand Recovery: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 11, 2023)
20230328 The profit growth rate of industrial enterprises bottomed out - analysis of the profits of industrial enterprises from January to February 2023
20230327 Phased Expectation Bottom – Macro Weekly Outlook (March 26, 2023)
20230326 From the four financial accounts, we will focus on fiscal development in 2023
20230326 The domestic equity market has performed better than the bond market - tracking the allocation of major types of assets (March 20-March 24)
20230325 Positive signal released by the implementation of the infrastructure REITs policy
20230324 Ready to go: the context of asset allocation
20230323 "Expected Trap" and "Kick in the Door" – March FOMC Commentary
20230322 Reversion of the Month-on-Month Repair Speed to the Mean: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 10, 2023)
20230321 How to understand the logic and impact of overseas risk transmission?
20230320 The 'Blind Man Touching the Elephant' Phase Is Coming to an End – Macro Week Perspectives (19 March 2023)
20230319 Crude oil fell sharply, gold rose sharply - tracking of asset allocation in major categories (March 13-March 17)
20230318 Revenue slows down, and the front-loaded finance will continue to exert force-Review of fiscal data from January to February 2023
20230318 What do you think about the RRR cut that exceeds expectations?
20230317 Review: Asset performance after the Fed's rate hikes ended
20230316 The success and highlights of the economic recovery at the beginning of the year - a review of economic data from January to February
20230316 Under the excess sequel, the probability of RRR reduction will be reduced - MLF operation review in March
20230315 The cost of the FED policy shift – Silicon Valley Bank incident tracking
20230315 Inflation may gradually become a secondary contradiction - US CPI review for February
20230314 Summary of the key points and learning experience of the Prime Minister's answers to reporters' questions
20230314 Investment Demand Continues to Expand: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 9, 2023)
20230313 债强股弱——大类资产配置跟踪 (March 6 - March 10)
20230313 Beware of the Transmission of Overseas Negative Factors – Macro Weekly Outlook (12 March 2023)
20230312 Marginal changes in infrastructure real estate in February from a satellite perspective
20230312 Worse news for employment – analysis of US employment data for February
20230311 The law of "big and small months" of credit has finally been broken - a review of financial data in February
20230311 How do you view overseas liquidity risk? "Crisis" first, then "opportunity" - Silicon Valley Bank incident commentary
20230310 How to understand that CPI was sharply lower than expected - February inflation commentary
20230309 U.S. labor market indicators are fully combed
20230308 Exports are better than expected, but imports still need to wait for the recovery - comments on import and export data from January to February
20230307 There is no need to be overly pessimistic about exports
20230307 How to Understand the Target GDP Growth Rate of 5%: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 8, 2023)
20230306 After Expected Volatility, Focus on the Structure of the Recovery – Macro Weekly Outlook (Mar 5, 2023)
20230305 What can be seen from the limited information - comments on the government work report
20230305 Strong Equity Market Performance – Broad Asset Allocation Tracking (Feb 27 – Mar 3)
20230304 How will U.S. inflation play out? Let's start with the relationship between money and inflation
20230303 Country-specific credit risk assessment index system
Three facts and three conjectures from the 20230302 PMI – February PMI review
20230301 Social finance rebounds, and we continue to pay attention to the repair of the production side - the macroeconomic forecast report for February
20230301 How much is left of the global post-pandemic recovery dividend? Domestic service consumption
20230228 Can Economic Recovery Be Sustainable: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 7, 2023)
20230227 Waiting for a "safety cushion" – Macro Weekly Perspectives (February 26, 2023)
20230226 The US dollar continues to strengthen – asset allocation tracking across broad categories (Feb 20-Feb 24)
20230225 Steady, accurate and ruthless - interpretation of the "Monetary Policy Implementation Report" in the fourth quarter
20230224 Asset Characteristics under the Rebound of the Growth Gap between Social Finance and M2 - The Fourth Part of the "Chinese-style QE" Series Report
20230223 Two Stages of Consumption Recovery: Domestic Demand Recovery Series Report (3)
20230222 Local Government Debt Disposal and Risks
20230221 High-frequency indicators are still in the process of seasonal rebound: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 6, 2023)
20230221 LPR unchanged, mortgage interest rates down - February LPR quotation commentary
20230220 Low slope but more sustainable – Macro Week Outlook (19 February 2023)
20230219 Credit bond yields continue to decline - tracking of asset allocation in major categories (February 13-February 18)
20230218 What has changed in Hegang after the fiscal restructuring?
20230217 Where has the inventory cycle of the upstream, midstream and downstream industries gone?
20230216 Steady growth in an all-round way or moderate structural adjustment?
20230215 Late or absent interest rate cut - February MLF operation review
20230215 Exceeding expectations - US CPI review for January
20230215 Abandon the old and make the new Bank of Japan - Comment on the nomination of the governor of the Bank of Japan
20230214 Production Situation Accelerates Rebound from the Bottom - China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 5, 2023)
20230214 Minutes of the February 12, 2023 "Perspectives on the Total" conference call
20230213 Good News, Bad News and Divergent Expectations – Macro Week Outlook (12 February 2023)
20230212 The three arrows of "Chinese-style QE".
20230212 Crude Oil Prices Rise - Broad Asset Allocation Tracking (Feb. 6-Feb. 10)
20230211 Credit in Fire and Ice – A Review of Financial Data for January 2023
20230210 Inflation still doesn't pose a major risk at the moment – January inflation review
20230207 The improvement of the low level of the economy will not affect the pace of stable growth policies: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 4, 2023)
20230206 Two Expectations Difference – Macro Weekly Outlook (February 5, 2023)
20230205 Commodity Prices Generally Weaken – Asset Allocation Tracking (30 Jan-3 Feb)
20230205 Spring ploughing is not idle--the context of asset allocation
20230204 Overseas markets began to revise their expectations - analysis of US employment data for January
20230203 How much is left of the global post-pandemic recovery dividend? Entry and exit
20230202 It's time to be wary of the balance sheet shrinkage shock – the February FOMC review
20230201 The economy is repaired, inflation comes first - the January macroeconomic forecast report
20230131 How to assess the strength of the recovery and policy mapping – January PMI commentary
20230131 The decline in profit growth in the current month has now narrowed - analysis of industrial enterprise profits in December 2022
20230131 Economic recovery, narrowing of the fiscal balance - December 2022 fiscal data review
20230130 Is the pre-holiday heat sustainable? ——Macro Weekly Outlook (January 28, 2023)
20230129 A small step towards recovery: domestic keywords for the Spring Festival holiday
20230128 Overseas events during the Spring Festival
20230127 Changes in U.S. Consumer Behavior After the Pandemic: Disposable, or Sustainable?
20230126 The inside and outside of "Chinese-style QE".
20230125 The Economic Significance of Real Estate Recovery Goes Beyond the Real Estate Chain Itself - Domestic Demand Recovery Series (2)
20230124 Five questions to the exit
20230123 Foreign Investment Continues to Deploy in the Mainland Equity Market - Tracking of Asset Allocation in Major Categories (January 16-January 20)
20230122 Supply and demand hit the bottom and wait for the post-holiday rebound - China's economy under the microscope (Issue 3, 2023)
20230120 Expected to remain unchanged - January LPR quotation review
20230119 How risky is the U.S. credit market?
20230118 How will the RMB exchange rate go after 6.7?
20230118 Several surprises and revelations from economic data - December economic data commentary
20230117 Emerging Recovery – Macro Week Outlook (14 January 2023)
20230116 What should I do if the January rate cut fails? -- Preview of MLF operations in January
20230116 Equity Market Performs Positively – Asset Allocation Tracking (January 9-January 13)
20230115 Price First: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 2, 2023)
20230114 Which industries are most constrained by external demand? ——Comments on import and export data in December
20230114 The probability of the US CPI falling below 3 during the year has increased significantly - US CPI comments in December
20230113 The phantom of restorative inflation emerges – December inflation commentary
20230112 Finance will exert efforts in five aspects
20230111 Social finance is close to bottoming out - a review of financial data in December
20230110 The rights and wrongs of reducing savings
20230109 Short-cycle lows past – Macro Week outlook (7 January 2023)
20230108 RMB Assets Remain Strong – Broad Asset Allocation Tracking (2 Jan-7 Jan)
20230107 Employment Resilience and Recession Prospects: Analysis of December U.S. Employment Data
20230106 Manufacturing to the Left and Service Industry to the Right – China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 1, 2023)
20230105 Attractive defensive deposits, excess savings and spending potential
20230104 Gloom – December Macroeconomic Forecast
20230103 No shortage of positive signals – Macro Weekly Outlook (31 December 2022)
20230102 On the occasion of saying goodbye to the old and welcoming the new, it is time to travel lightly - PMI review in December
20230102 Equity Market Trading Volume Sluggish – Asset Allocation Tracking (December 26-December 30)
20221231 High-frequency Data of Epidemic Prevention Optimization and Impact: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 36, 2022)
20221231 Interest rate cut is imminent - comments on the regular meeting of monetary policy in the fourth quarter
20221230 Post-epidemic Consumption Recovery from Two Tables of Residents - Domestic Demand Recovery Series (1)
20221229 The resilience of the U.S. economy and its implications for China's liberalization
20221228 Before Dawn – Analysis of Industrial Companies' Profits, November 2022
20221227 Will there be a post-pandemic labor shortage? Overseas experience
20221226 What kind of expectations is the market taking into account? ——Macro Weekly Outlook (December 24, 2022)
20221225 Bond Market Picks Up - Tracking of Asset Allocation (December 19-December 23)
20221224 Bank of Japan Operation Six Questions
20221223 Chinese-style QE on the Fly--Preview of the National Financial Work Conference
20221222 Will there be a labor shortage when the economy reopens?
20221221 Fiscal revenue for the whole year may be lower than expected - a review of November fiscal data
20221220 Waiting for the MLF to be lowered to break the situation - December LPR quotation review
20221220 Transcript of the December 18, 2022 "Perspectives of the Total" conference call
20221219 Strong Expectations and Weak Reality Convergence – Macro Weekly Perspectives (17 December 2022)
20221219 Decline in Risk Appetite in Internal and External Markets - Tracking of Asset Allocation in Large Categories (December 12-December 16)
20221218 The impact of the quarter-end impulse or the optimization of epidemic prevention: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 35, 2022)
20221217 The Swing of the Scales – Five Key Points of the Central Economic Work Conference
20221216 Back to Reality – A Review of November Economic Data
20221216 Reinforcements have arrived - December MLF operation review
20221215 Short Eagle; Long Pigeon – FOMC Review December 2022
20221214 Standing at the starting point of a new cycle - the outlook for asset allocation in 2023
20221214 23Q2 U.S. real interest rates will turn positive - November U.S. CPI commentary
20221213 Easy credit needs to be accompanied by interest rate cuts - a review of financial data in November
20221212 The pace of the epidemic in China and its impact on the capital market
20221211 Divergence of Sentiment in China-US Equity Markets: Tracking of Asset Allocation in Major Categories (December 5-December 9)
20221209 Is there pressure on inflation – November inflation commentary
20221208 Two Key Changes in the Politburo Meeting – China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 34, 2022)
20221207 It's time to expand domestic demand – a review of import and export data for November 2022
20221206 Spring Is Not Far Away – Macro Week Perspectives (4 December 2022)
20221205 How do you view consumption and inflation after the relaxation of epidemic prevention in China?
20221204 Trading under Positive Signals – Broad Asset Allocation Tracking (Nov 28 – Dec 2)
20221203 Need to worry about hourly wage growth? Analysis of U.S. employment data in November 2022
20221202 Accelerating Clearing Helps the Economy Reopen – China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 33, 2022)
20221201 Internal and external turning point - November macroeconomic forecast report
20221130 Before things get better – November PMI review
20221129 Has the worst been over?
20221128 Profit growth bottoming out - analysis of industrial enterprise profits in October 2022
20221127 Marginal Stabilization of Production Situation - China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 32, 2022)
20221201 Internal and external turning point - November macroeconomic forecast report
20221130 Before things get better – November PMI review
20221129 Worst Passed – Macro Weekly Outlook (26 Nov 2022)
20221128 Profit growth bottoming out - analysis of industrial enterprise profits in October 2022
20221127 Marginal Stabilization of Production Situation - China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 32, 2022)
20221127 Epidemic Volatility Intensifies Market Gambling - Tracking of Asset Allocation in Major Categories (November 21-November 25)
20221126 RRR cut coming as scheduled - comments on the central bank's RRR cut operation
20221125 Economy, Policies and Assets of Vietnam, Hong Kong and Taiwan after the Relaxation of Epidemic Prevention and Control - Observation Series on Overseas Epidemic Prevention and Relaxation (3)
Economic, Policy and Asset Performance after 20221124 Japan, South Korea and New Zealand "Lying Flat": Observation Series on Overseas Epidemic Prevention and Liberalization (2)
20221123 Economic, Policy and Asset Performance of the United States, Europe and the United Kingdom after "Lying Flat": Observation Series on Overseas Epidemic Prevention and Liberalization (1)
20221122 The resurgence of the digital currency market - Overseas Risk Warning Series (2)
20221121 Vietnam on the Cusp - Overseas Risk Warning Series (1)
20221120 Domestic demand is fundamental – Macro Weekly Outlook (19 Nov 2022)
20221119 The "Money Bridge" test was launched, and the cross-border settlement of e-CNY was accelerated
20221118 Is Monetary Policy Beginning to Converge? -- Interpretation of the "Monetary Policy Implementation Report" for the third quarter
20221117 Sparks in October Economic Data - China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 31, 2022)
20221117 Fiscal revenue caught up with the progress, and the growth rate of infrastructure expenditure returned to positive
20221116 The shrinkage is in line with the logic of recent monetary policy operations - MLF operation review in November 2022
20221116 Will the next phase of economic recovery be better than expected?
20221115 Standing at the top of the US dollar – 2023 macroeconomic outlook abroad
20221114 The relaxation of real estate policy has entered the third stage: timing and impact
20221114 Data to the Left, Expectations to the Right – Macro Weekly Outlook (12 Nov 2022)
20221113 Crossroads – 2023 Macroeconomic Outlook Domestic Chapter
20221112 Financing Conditions for Real Estate Developers May Start to Improve – China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 30, 2022)
20221112 U.S. inflation cooled more than expected - a review of US CPI for October
20221111 Bright spots in the decline: The growth rate of medium and long-term loans to enterprises continued to pick up
20221110 Democrats "small defeat", the market may enter a recession trade - 2022 US midterm election review
20221109 Inflation Variables – October Inflation Commentary
20221108 External demand accelerated and weakened - comments on import and export data in October
20221107 Positive Signals from Inside and Out – Macro Week Outlook (5 November 2022)
20221106 Changes in consumption in these economies after "lying flat".
20221105 Unemployment rate bottoming out and rebounding is becoming clear – analysis of US employment data for October
20221104 Is the inventory cycle in the end? China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 29, 2022)
20221103 Reiterating the inflation target ahead of the midterm elections won't be 'wrong' – November FOMC commentary
20221102 Those emerging market crises during previous FED rate hike periods
20221101 Macroeconomic Forecast Report (October 2022)
20221031 The epidemic is like a man's back - October PMI review
20221030 Growing constraints on Fed rate hikes – a review of US GDP data for the third quarter of 2022
20221030 Fork in the Road – Macro Week Perspectives (October 29, 2022)
20221029 What do you think of the last ditch ahead of the midterm elections?
20221028 How demand can follow supply improvements
20221028 The profit structure continues to sink
20221027 Top 20 companies and industries in the report
20221027 Infrastructure growth in the fourth quarter is still guaranteed - a review of the September 2022 fiscal data
20221026 The confidence of the central bank
20221025 "Economic Account" and Structural Characteristics under the Epidemic - A Review of Economic Data in the Third Quarter
20221025 Export resistance rises further – a review of import and export data for September 2022
20221024 Why isn't there a "wage-inflation" spiral in the US?
20221023 Finding Opportunities in Equilibrium – Macro Weekly Perspectives (22 October 2022)
20221021 The need for an across-the-board interest rate cut has increased
20221021 Delicate Moments: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 27, 2022)
20221020 Monetary policy in 2022: wide but not overflowing, precise drip irrigation
20221019 Son or Yin? ——Context of asset allocation by category (Q4 2022)
20221018 Change in the Rhythm of Liquidity Regulation: A Review of MLF Operations in October 2022
20221018 The prosperity of many industries in the middle and lower reaches is rising——Mesoscopic prosperity series (3)
20221017 Chinese Modernization – The Brightest Key Word of the Report
20221017 Positive Signals Are Growing – Macro Weekly Outlook (October 15, 2022)
20221016 Prices are on the rise: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 26, 2022)
20221015 How to understand the stark difference between internal and external inflation
20221015 Fiscal 2022: Active, precise and sustainable
20221014 Core inflation is close to peak – US CPI review for September
20221014 Achieving a comprehensive balance - a review of the effects of the package of policies to stabilize the economy in 2022
20221013 How far is overseas from a liquidity crisis?
20221012 The inflection point in the growth rate of medium and long-term loans of enterprises has arrived
20221011 China's Overseas Investment in the Post-Epidemic Era - Global Industrial Chain Series (2)
20221010 Gold: The left-hand indicator of equity assets
20221009 Summary of important domestic data and information during the National Day holiday
20221009 What does it mean for the unemployment rate to fall in tandem with hourly wages?
20221008 Those things overseas during the eleventh holiday
20221007 Changing expectations can change the trend - the effect of this round of real estate policy
20221006 The Upper Limit of ASEAN's Industrial Undertaking – Global Industrial Chain Series (1)
20221005 What are you afraid of in the manufacturing industry? - Japan 2011-2015 Mirror
20221002 The economic growth rate in Q3 is expected to be in the range of 3.7-4.2%.
20221001 Industrial Production May Exceed Expectations in September – China's Economy Under the Microscope (Issue 25, 2022)
20220930 Highlights, Hidden Worries, Opportunities - September PMI Reviews
20220930 Promoting consumption has become a new goal of policy efforts - comments on the regular monetary policy meeting in the third quarter
20220929 New support for credit in the fourth quarter - the central bank set up a special re-loan for equipment transformation
20220928 Italian Election: A Parlay Game
20220927 Q4 Repair Situation Remains Unchanged - Analysis of Industrial Enterprises' Profits in August 2022
20220926 Is it expected to be fixed? ——Macro Weekly Outlook (September 24, 2022)
20220925 降准可期
20220924 The Bank of England's Impossible Triangle: Fiscal Easing, Anti-Inflation, Reserve Status
20220923 The Improvement Momentum of Real Estate Completions is Expected to Continue: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 24, 2022)
20220922 The boundaries of the Fed's rate hikes – September FOMC commentary
20220921 Completion recovery: an economic bright spot that is easily overlooked
20220920 How much room does the PBOC have for "self-centeredness"? - Comment on the September 2022 LPR quotation
20220919 The economy is still adding – Macro Weekly Outlook (17 September 2022)
20220918 Merchants Macro | What is the pull effect of incremental policies?
20220917 Uneven Thermal and Structural Differentiation: China's Economy under the Microscope (Issue 23, 2022)
20220916 The urgency of further stabilizing domestic demand - a review of economic data in August
20220915 How much consumption is worth waiting for - the outlook for the consumption situation in the fourth quarter
20220915 Understand the combination of "MLF + deposit rate".
20220914 Poor inflation expectations may bring back overseas volatility in June – US CPI analysis, August 2022
20220913 September may be the mini version of June - macro weekly view 0912
20220912 Don't overestimate policy tools and underestimate the effect of stabilizing real estate
20220911 Will the growth rate of social finance rebound in September?
20220909 Inflation's influence on policy will tend to weaken – August Inflation Review
20220908 Will the epidemic in Chengdu and Shenzhen affect the economic performance in September?
20220908 Across high temperatures and power rationing, which industries are likely to continue their prosperity?
20220907 How do the four new changes affect exports? ——Comments on import and export data in August 2022
20220906 Easing the slope of RMB exchange rate depreciation - comments on the PBOC's reduction of the foreign exchange reserve ratio
20220906 Decision September – The Context of Asset Allocation (September 2022)
20220905 Rising short-term certainty – Macro Weekly Views 0903
20220904 Is 3.5% a psychological threshold for the Fed?
20220903 September FOMC may be a watershed moment - analysis of US non-farm payrolls data in August 2022
20220902 Production Repair Travel declined
20220901 Infrastructure investment will grow by more than 10% – macroeconomic data forecast for August
20220831 Where is the fiscal space?
20220831 The situation is changing – the August PMI review
20220830 Is there a lot of pressure on the depreciation of the RMB?
20220829 Understand the correct posture of "not flooding".
20220829 Internal Pressures and External Risks – Macro Weekly Views 0827
20220828 Possibilities and effects of the energy crisis in Europe
20220828 Q3 or the bottom of the annual industrial profit growth rate - analysis of industrial enterprise profits in July 2022
20220827 Powell, who turned hawkish again, is the key - a review of the Jackson Hole meeting of global central banks
20220826 Rising overseas energy and electricity prices may help the mainland's exports exceed expectations throughout the year
20220825 Five questions about the high temperature in the south: Is the impact really coming to an end?
20220824 Impact of power rationing in Sichuan in high-frequency data
20220823 Review of the current round of policy effects - from sentiment repair, financial support to fundamental improvement
20220822 How to understand the LPR reduction? Balance between real estate and exchange rates
20220822 Policy focused on striving for the best outcome – Macro Weekly Outlook 0820
20220821 Where the scales are tilted in the broad categories of assets
20220819 The path for the use of the special debt limit may be clarified more quickly
20220819 Under the "Chip Quadripartite Alliance", where is the focus of industrial upgrading?
20220818 The prospect of industrial upgrading in the mainland from the experience of the United States, Japan and South Korea
20220817 Accurately grasp the RMB exchange rate
20220816 The feasibility of returning to recovery and the decisiveness of real estate at the end of the year
20220816 Will the Democrats still have a chance of winning in the midterm elections?
20220815 Start the interest rate cut cycle - comments on the MLF interest rate cut in August 20220814 If oil prices rebound again 20220813 domestic commodity futures and spot prices will pick up one after another 20220812 looking for a new fulcrum for social finance 20220811 Stepping on the rhyme of inflation - interpretation of the "Monetary Policy Implementation Report" in the second quarter of 2022 20220810 How does inflation affect macro policy if it returns to the pattern of 19 years? -- July Inflation Review 20220809 Can the Inflation Reduction Act Reverse the Midterm Elections? 20220809 Structural Highlights in the Weak Recovery from the Meso Research Framework: Meso-Prosperity Series (1)
20220808 Evolution path prospect and reconstruction risk assessment of the global industrial chain
20220807 The advantages of the industrial chain may make exports continue to exceed expectations——— July 2022 import and export data review
20220807 Declining Certainty – Macro Weekly Views 0807
20220806 Just go down the slope of the donkey or twists and turns? Context of Asset Allocation (August 2022)
20220806 Overseas markets may return to volatility - analysis of US non-farm payrolls data in July 2022
20220805 Handbook on the Liberalization of China's Capital Markets 2022
20220804 Industrial chain under change - a warning that many manufacturing countries are falling into trade deficits
20220803 Pay attention to positive signals for price and travel data
20220802 Recovery under multiple shocks and constraints – July macroeconomic data forecast
20220802 How did money market liquidity return to neutral in 2020?
20220801 Potential structural bright spot after the larger-than-expected pullback in the manufacturing sector – July PMI commentary
20220801 Recovery Enters a Period of Divergence - Macro Weekly Views 0731
20220730 Is the U.S. in a recession? -- Comments on US GDP data for the second quarter of 2022
20220729 Make good use of established policies, persistence is victory – five key answers from the Politburo meeting
20220729 China's export situation from the perspective of export delivery value
20220728 If the Fed "covers" the cards again – July FOMC Commentary
20220727 Dual circulation is upgrading: analysis of the structure of import and export commodities in the first half of 2022
20220727 After the V-shaped repair of profits, focus on certainty - analysis of industrial enterprise profits in June 2022
20220726 Will the funding rate gap close in August?
20220725 The short-term position and long-term style of U.S. stocks
20220724 Domestic demand is weak, but the inflection point of the interest rate gap between China and the United States is beginning to emerge - macro weekly view 0724
20220723 "Off-Season" in High Temperatures: Economic Observation Series (1)
20220722 What other black swans are overseas?
20220721 How much GDP growth is needed to stabilize employment?
20220720 Balance between stabilizing real estate and preventing risks, LPR quotations remained stable in July
20220719 How the Recovery Deal Will Evolve – The Context of Asset Allocation (Q3 2022)
20220717 Four macro scenarios and major asset classes driven by political cycles
20220716 With the fast pace of reducing revenue and increasing expenditure, where is the road in the second half of the year?
20220715 Three Scenarios for the Future – Analysis of China's Economic Data for the Second Quarter of 2022
20220714 Two key data ahead of the July FOMC: a 100bp rate hike?
20220714 Where does the money go?
20220714 Credit Differentiation and Leverage Recovery: A Review of the Press Conference on Financial Statistics in the First Half of the Year
20220713 Residents take the initiative to assess the impact of housing loans for projects that have been cut off and suspended
20220713 Concerns after the high growth in exports
20220712 Kang Long has regrets - a review of financial data in June
20220711 Based on profit expectations, which sectors to focus on in July?
20220710 The start of the pig cycle - a review of the June inflation data
20220710 Inflationary pressure is still strong, and expectations for interest rate hikes in July have strengthened - U.S. non-farm payrolls comments in June
20220709 Where does the accelerated inflow of FDI into China come from and where is it going?
20220708 Behind the close parity of the euro and the dollar
20220708 Post-pandemic global value chain reshaping, exchange rate flexibility and manufacturing competitiveness
20220707 Consumption of services is showing signs of improvement
20220706 Where do recession expectations come from and where are they going?
20220705 The double meaning of the central bank's 3 billion investment
20220705 A brief comment on the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
20220704 Rising Inflation as the Pandemic Recedes – Macroeconomic Forecasts Report (June 2022)
20220702 Structural bright spots amid consensus expectations of a slowdown in exports
20220701 Changes in monetary policy in the third quarter
20220701 Internal and external demand drivers are exchanging directions
20220630 Positive signals continue to increase
20220629 If U.S. stocks fall again, can A-shares continue to be desensitized?
20220628 The foundation for recovery is not solid, and we are actively focusing on the middle and lower reaches
20220627 Three scenario assumptions for economic movements
20220626 Domestic Economy: Recovery Fears Shocks – Medium-term Macroeconomic Outlook for 2022
20220625 Waiting for the flowers to bloom – 2022 Medium-term Macroeconomic Outlook Fiscal Chapter
20220625 Why did the price of rebar futures fall sharply?
20220624 Aggregates are not weak and the structure is good – 2022 Medium-term Macroeconomic Outlook Currencies
20220623 Will there be a liquidity crisis overseas?
20220622 Exit to the left; Imports to the Right - 2022 Medium-term Macroeconomic Outlook Foreign Trade
20220621 Inflationary Pressures: Weak on the Outside and Strong on the Inside: Macroeconomic Outlook for 2022 Inflation
20220620 Shock turns to ease – 2022 Medium-term Macroeconomic Outlook Overseas
20220619 The impact of the Fed's interest rate hikes is already being felt
20220618 There is huge pressure on the revenue and expenditure of local government funds
20220617 Supply-side repairs faster than demand-side
20220616 It's time to consider the conditions under which the FED ends rate hikes
20220615 Stick to the recovery trade
20220614 Compatible with the dynamic zero-COVID economic growth path
20220613 What else do we need to pay attention to when exports, PMI, and social finance exceed expectations?
20220612 The final rush of oil prices: What if US CPI does not fall?
20220612 Poor credit expectations are realized
20220611 How will CPI go in different scenarios in the third and fourth quarters?
20220610 Exports exceed expectations, is it a new increase or a backlog in April?
20220609 How do you view the game between supply and demand of crude oil?
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