China's lithium battery can be called one of the craziest and most volatile industries in the past two years.
According to the statistics of the 24 Chao Industry Research Institute (TTIR), in the past two years (from the beginning of 2022 to April 18, 2024), 660 major manufacturing projects with more than 100 million yuan have been announced in China's lithium battery industry chain. The total investment budget is nearly 3.2 trillion yuan, as follows: in 2022, the investment budget of 299 major investment projects will be nearly 1.9 trillion yuan, in 2023, the investment budget of 260 major investment projects will exceed 1 trillion yuan, and so far in 2024 (April 18), the total investment budget of 101 major investment projects will exceed 0.6 trillion yuan.
Among them, there are as many as 120 major projects with a single investment of 10 billion yuan, and the most ferocious expansion is the power and energy storage battery track, with a total investment of more than 2.1 trillion yuan (see the appendix at the end of the article for specific investment information of enterprises).
According to the statistics of the 24 Chao Industry Research Institute (TTIR), only at the level of listed companies, at least 325 lithium battery super projects have entered the implementation (construction) stage, and the total investment budget of these 325 projects exceeds 860 billion yuan, covering lithium battery manufacturing, upstream raw materials such as cobalt, lithium and nickel, cathode and anode materials, electrolytes, lithium battery separators, lithium battery copper foil and other entire lithium battery industry chain.
At present, China's lithium battery industry is burning like a flame; On the other hand, it is like an iceberg, cold and hard, hiding unknown and huge risks.
First of all, according to a set of data previously counted by the 24 Chao Industry Research Institute (TTIR): up to now, in the six core tracks of power batteries, energy storage batteries, cathode materials, anode materials, electrolytes and lithium battery separators, the known enterprise capacity planning far exceeds the upper limit of the forecast of market demand by third-party research institutions in 2025, and the tragic reshuffle and game in the next three years seems to be inevitable.
(Note: The power battery capacity planning in the chart includes part of the energy storage capacity)
In particular, the development of the lithium battery industry is slowing down, and it is becoming the consensus of more and more people in the industry. According to the statistics of 24 Chao Industry Research Institute (TTIR), the overall operating income in 2023 will decrease by 0.17% year-on-year, and the growth rate will decrease by 88.30 percentage points compared with 2022, and the overall net profit attributable to the parent company will decrease by 45.07% year-on-year, and the growth rate will decrease by 176.83% compared with 2022.
In the first quarter of 2023, the total operating income of 107 lithium listed companies (note: Hong Kong listed companies did not disclose the first quarter report of 2024) lithium battery listed companies was 292.907 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18%, and the total net profit attributable to the parent company was 16.907 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50.16%.
In fact, at present, most of the second- and third-tier manufacturers are almost in a state of loss, and many companies may not survive this round of reshuffle cycle.
The 24 Chao Industry Research Institute (TTIR) also found that the crazy wave of trillion-dollar investment in lithium batteries has seen major projects terminated or postponed
As shown in the table below, from 2023 to the present, the field of lithium battery manufacturing that can be checked has been terminated, and even more than 20 incidents of lithium battery business have been directly seen, involving lithium batteries, nickel-lithium raw materials, lithium battery raw materials and other subdivisions, with a total investment scale of more than 30 billion yuan.
The analysis of the 24 tide team found that with the severe changes in the industrial situation, the cracks in the trillion investment map are still further extending and expanding.
For example, at present, many star enterprises are deeply involved in suspension of work, production, or have been included in the list of dishonest judgment defaulters, and there are doubts about whether their real strength can support the investment strategy of 10 billion yuan.
For example, in February 2022, Jiewei Power signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the People's Government of Tianchang City, Chuzhou, Anhui Province, and the two sides reached cooperation on the settlement of the 20GWh lithium battery production base project of Jiewei Power in Chuzhou.
It is understood that the total investment of the Chuzhou lithium battery production base project of Jiewei Power is about 10 billion yuan, with a planned output of 20GWh, and the product types cover lithium iron phosphate and ternary material systems, which will be mainly used for the production of advanced power lithium-ion batteries, and the project is planned to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2023.
However, at the end of November 2023, a Jiewei Power's "Notice on the Company's Suspension of Work and Production, Employee Holidays and Training" shook the industry. According to the document, due to the influence of objective factors such as the market and the upstream and downstream industrial chains, in order to ensure the sustainable development of the company's business, the management decided to start suspending work and production from December 1, 2023.
According to a report by Phoenix.com's "Eye of the Storm" on December 9, in fact, the problem of Jiewei Power is far more serious than the notice. Its battery production base in Tianjin has been out of production for three months. Wu Sujun, a grassroots employee who has worked in Jiewei Power for more than ten years, told Phoenix.com's "Eye of the Storm" that the battery factory has been completely shut down, and there are only about 400 employees left in the headquarters before the shutdown. The rest remain in the company and are either on vacation or trained to receive the minimum wage.
According to the enterprise investigation, Jiewei Power has been included in the list of dishonest judgment defaulters, and there are also two consumption restriction orders, which are issued on April 28 and May 20, 2024 respectively.
For example, on the afternoon of May 23, 2022, the signing ceremony of the cooperation framework agreement between Tianjin New Energy's 20GWh power battery and supporting industry projects and the strategic cooperation agreement between Yingke Capital and Qianshan City was held in Qianshan, Anhui Province. It marks the official settlement of Tianjin New Energy's 20GWh power battery project in Qianshan, Anhui Province.
It is reported that the total investment of Tianjin New Energy's 20GWh power battery and supporting industry project is 10 billion yuan, of which 5 billion yuan is invested in the first phase and 10GWh power battery manufacturing project is planned to be built.
According to the enterprise investigation, Tianjin New Energy has been included in the list of dishonest executors, and there are 7 pieces of information showing the status of "all unfulfilled", the most recent release is March 26, 2024, and the amount of execution is 28.71 million yuan.
In order to resist the industrial cold wave, many companies are accelerating their international layout, but the real situation is that some of their major overseas projects seem to have fallen into a state of postponement or even near stagnation.
For example, as early as May 2022, the company announced that it plans to build a lithium battery separator film project in the United States, with a project investment budget of about 6.38 billion yuan, according to the financial report, as of the end of 2022, the progress of the plant project is about 10%, and by the end of 2023, its project progress has not changed, it is still 10%, almost into a state of stagnation.
In addition, in November 2020, the company also plans to build 4 fully automatic imported film production lines and more than 30 coating production lines in Hungary, with an annual production capacity of about 400 million square meters of base film. The project has an investment budget of around 340 million euros and, according to its strategic plan at the time, "the project is expected to start mass production by the end of the first quarter of 2023." However, the financial report shows that by the end of 2023, the progress of the Hungarian factory of NXT is only 76.50%, and the project progress is less than expected.
The wave of major project closures continues. On June 6, International Industry (000159.SZ) also announced that the company held the second interim meeting of the ninth board of directors on June 6, 2024, and deliberated and passed the "Proposal on the Termination of Investment in the Construction of Lithium Iron Phosphate Energy Storage Battery PACK Integrated Production Line Project by Holding Subsidiaries".
"After research, during the same period, many domestic companies squeezed into the lithium battery track, predicting that there will be oversupply in the future market, and there is uncertainty in orders in the international market. So says International Industries.
Readers, what other major lithium battery projects do you know that have been suspended, postponed, or terminated? Welcome to leave a message at the end of the article to add and correct.
Article source: 24 tides
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