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Text: Yu Yu
Edited by Yu Yu
Preamble:
In today's world nuclear force structure, there is a huge disparity between the number of nuclear warheads between China and the United States, with the United States having thousands of nuclear warheads, while China is far less than the number.
However, this huge disparity in numbers did not lead to the outbreak of a nuclear war, what is it that is balancing the two superpowers? Why did the United States, which has absolute numerical superiority, never dare to act rashly?
Beyond the numbers: the true essence of nuclear deterrence
When we talk about nuclear deterrence, many people's first reaction is a numbers game, but the true nature of nuclear deterrence is far more complex than a simple quantitative comparison.
It's like two boxers, one fist is big and the other fist is small, but as long as they can knock each other down with one punch, who cares about the size of the fist?
The most critical concept in the theory of nuclear deterrence is mutual assurance of destruction, which sounds a bit of a mouthful, but it actually means that both sides have the ability to carry out a devastating counterattack after a nuclear strike.
To put it simply, if you hit me, I can beat you, and the two of us will end up together, and the power of modern nuclear weapons has reached the point of appalling.
A hydrogen bomb can easily exceed the power of the atomic bomb of World War II by hundreds of times, and in the face of such terrifying destructive power, even a few hundred nuclear warheads are enough to send a country back to the Stone Age.
In this case, the numerical superiority of nuclear warheads is a bit chicken, just like one person with a machete, the other with a knife, as long as they can be fatal, who cares how big the knife is?
Strategic nuclear submarines play a vital role in nuclear deterrence, and these underwater behemoths are like ghosts hidden at the bottom of the sea, ready to surface and launch nuclear missiles.
Their presence ensures that even if a country is attacked suddenly, it can still carry out terrible retaliation, which is like two people pointing a gun at each other, even if one person's gun is bigger and more numerous, but as long as the other's gun can be deadly, who would dare to pull the trigger easily?
Therefore, the real power of nuclear deterrence lies not in who has more nuclear warheads, but in who can ensure that the opponent can still deliver a fatal blow in the worst-case scenario.
This is the fundamental reason why the United States, even if it has a numerical superiority, does not dare to act rashly against China.
The geopolitical chess game: China's strategic advantage
When it comes to the nuclear confrontation between China and the United States, we can't just look at the number of nuclear warheads, it's like playing chess, and it is not enough to have more chess pieces, but also how to move it.
In this complex geopolitical chess game, China has made a lot of clever moves, first of all, let's talk about regional denial, which sounds a bit awkward.
To put it simply, it is to turn a large area in front of the house into a forbidden area for the other party, which is like a trap around your yard, so that the neighbor's bear children dare not easily run to make trouble.
The various advanced weapons systems that China has deployed in the South China Sea and around the Taiwan Strait in recent years are the concrete embodiment of this strategy.
The U.S. aircraft carrier fleet is not so comfortable in these areas, for fear that one day it will accidentally step on a mine.
Let's talk about the two emerging battlefields of space and cyber, which are not science fiction movies, but real military competition fields.
It's like two children competing to stack blocks, not only to see who stacks higher, but also to see who can knock each other's blocks down.
China's advances in anti-satellite weapons and cyber warfare capabilities have kept the U.S. military awake, and consider how lively it would be if war broke out and the GPS system and communications network that the United States prides itself on suddenly went down.
Speaking of excitement, let's talk about anti-missile systems, the United States has deployed anti-missile systems around the world in recent years, ostensibly for defense, but in fact it wants to break the strategic balance.
It's like a person who not only brings a shield, but also wants to confiscate all the other party's weapons, but China is not a vegetarian either.
The development of hypersonic weapons has caused a lot of suffering for the United States' anti-missile system, which can break through defenses at incredible speed and turn America's carefully arranged shield into an ornament.
In general, China has played a lot of beautiful chess in this big geopolitical chess game.
Although there is still a gap in the number of nuclear warheads, it has formed a considerable advantage in strategic layout, which is why the United States, even if it has a numerical superiority, does not dare to easily play prestige at China's doorstep.
In this fast-changing world, it's not enough to have a big stick, you have to have a smart carrot policy.
China's ingenious military deployment has not only enhanced its own security, but also contributed to regional stability, which is the true wisdom of a major country.
The Reshaping of the Post-War World: A Contest of Resilience
When it comes to nuclear war, everyone always imagines mushroom clouds and ruins, but it is more important to see who can get up quickly after this doomsday party.
It's like two drunks fighting, not only to see who punches harder, but also to see who can get up from the ground first and continue the fight.
First of all, we have to boast about China's organizational ability, this is not blowing, take the new crown epidemic as an example, the Chinese government issued an order, and the whole country worked together to surround and block the virus.
This mobilization capability is invaluable in post-nuclear reconstruction, and imagine that China may soon be able to organize large-scale rescue and reconstruction efforts after a nuclear bomb detonation.
It's like a swarm of ants that can quickly rebuild their homes even if their nests are trampled down, and the chaotic performance of the United States in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina is a bit worrying.
Let's talk about the hollowing out of industry in the United States, which has moved all its factories overseas in recent years and turned itself into a big financial empire.
This seems to be beautiful, but after a nuclear war, it will be exposed, there is no industrial base, and you want to rebuild? There are no doors!
It's like a person who usually only plays stocks, and suddenly one day needs to farm and weave his own cloth, which is really life-threatening.
In contrast, China, as the world's factory, can quickly restart production lines even if it suffers heavy damage, and when it comes to heavy damage, we have to mention the scary word nuclear winter.
After a nuclear war, a large amount of smoke and dust will block out the sunlight and cause global temperatures to plummet, not an ordinary cold winter, but a super cold winter that could last for years.
In this case, agricultural production will be seriously affected, and whoever can quickly adjust the agricultural structure will have the upper hand in this hunger game.
China's thousands of years of agrarian civilization, coupled with modern technology, may be able to find a way to survive this disaster.
In general, the reshaping of the world after nuclear war is a matter of who can rebuild civilization from the ruins, and China's strong organizational ability, complete industrial system and abundant human resources are the key bargaining chips for reconstruction.
It's like two people competing to build a house, one with a full set of tools and a skilled team, and the other with only money and drawings. Who can build it quickly and well, the answer is self-evident.
In this uncertain world, true strength lies not only in the ability to destroy, but also in the ability to rebuild.
China's advantage in this regard may be what really makes the United States jealous, after all, a country that can rebuild civilization from the ruins is truly invincible.
Beyond Nuclear Weapons: A Contest of Comprehensive National Strength
When it comes to nuclear confrontation, we can't just stare at those shiny nuclear warheads, the real contest is an all-round competition of national strength.
This is like a competition between two people, not only to see whose fists are hard, but also to see whose kung fu foundation is deep, first of all, we have to talk about China's industrial system.
This is not bragging, China now has the most complete industrial system in the world, from screws to spacecraft, from socks to supercomputers, almost everything can be built.
This advantage of the whole industry chain is a priceless treasure in wartime, imagine that if there is a real fight, what does the United States want to build, and the parts may have to be imported from China.
It's no joke, the reality is so magical, compared to China that you can find almost everything you need in your own backyard.
It's like two people fighting, one is fully armed, and the other has to run to borrow equipment, and it's clear who wins and who loses.
Let's talk about the financial superiority of the United States. That's right, Wall Street is really powerful, and the dollar is also a global currency.
But this advantage is not so effective in wartime. You can't smash the enemy with stocks, can you? Moreover, economic structures that are overly reliant on finance can be quite fragile in times of crisis.
It's like a person who usually makes a living by trading stocks, and it looks beautiful. But once the stock market crashes, it immediately becomes a poor egg.
In contrast, China's real economy is much more solid. Even in the event of a crisis, there is plenty of buffer space.
Speaking of international influence, we have to mention the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and nuclear disarmament efforts, which China has been advocating peaceful development and nuclear disarmament in the international arena for many years.
This has not only won the favor of the international community, but also created a favorable external environment for its own development; in contrast, although the United States is also shouting the slogan of nuclear disarmament, it has been engaged in the modernization of nuclear weapons.
This kind of double standard has made many countries look at it, which is like a person who persuades others to quit smoking, but secretly hides in the toilet to smoke, can this behavior be trusted by others?
In general, the contest between China and the United States has long gone beyond the scope of nuclear weapons, and it is an all-round competition of national strength, covering many fields such as economy, science and technology, and diplomacy.
In this contest without gunpowder, whoever can occupy the upper hand in all fields will be able to seize the initiative on the international stage.
Epilogue:
Although the disparity in the number of nuclear warheads is enormous, both China and the United States are well aware of the catastrophic consequences of nuclear war. What really maintains peace is the all-round contest and balance between the two countries in the military, economic, scientific and technological fields, and so on.
This balance not only guarantees the security of the two countries, but also contributes an important force to global peace, and in the future, the two countries should continue to remain rational, seek cooperation in the midst of competition, and jointly contribute to world peace and development.
Resources:
The Global Times published on June 29, 2024, "How many nuclear warheads does the United States have?" Latest data》
On June 26, 2024, "Global Nuclear Weapons Spending Continues to Rise" published by Guangming.com
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