Another tragedy of the "farmer and the snake"? China helped Indonesia build high-speed railways and nickel factories, and Indonesia imposed heavy taxes on Chinese goods, which was a 200% tariff as soon as it opened its mouth, why did Indonesia suddenly bite back on China? Is there an American factor behind it?
In some countries, when they have just eaten enough, they begin to toss and turn blindly, forgetting the tragic days when they were trampled under their feet, hungry and dark. For such "amnesia" countries, it is necessary for China to put some ugly words ahead of it before deepening its cooperation with them.
Hong Kong Satellite TV reported on June 29 that Indonesian Trade Minister Zulkifli Hassan said on the same day that he planned to impose 100%-200% tariffs on footwear, clothing, cosmetics, textiles, ceramics and other Chinese-made goods. Hassan explained that the tariffs are aimed at mitigating the impact of the US-China trade war and protecting the survival and development of small and micro enterprises in the country.
Because in its own view, Chinese products are refused to be imported by Western countries, and China can only find ways to open the markets of third world countries. A while ago, we talked a lot about China-India friendship, but now we suddenly turn our faces and deny people, and even take advantage of our own "food and clothing".
Here's what to guess about:
First, Indonesia is heavily influenced by the United States.
There are reports that Indonesia has abandoned its plans to buy Russian fighter jets in favor of full-scale imports of American F15s. In addition, the United States has stepped up its infiltration and intervention in Southeast Asian countries, allowing some countries with island and reef disputes with China to take the initiative to undermine the Code of Conduct for Parties in the South China Sea and firmly stand by the United States and the Philippines.
I believe that this scene caught everyone by surprise, because no matter from which point of view, Indonesia, as a beneficiary of the "Belt and Road", is unlikely to attack China. But the fact is that it is difficult for China's investment to recoup its costs, and China's foreign assistance has become a wedding dress for other countries' progress.
Second, Indonesia's foundation is shaky.
It is reported that Indonesia accounts for 52% of the world's nickel ore reserves, and more than 90% of China's nickel resource supply comes from Indonesia and the Philippines.
In order to achieve a monopoly on nickel resources and grab high profits, Jokowi has repeatedly raised export tariffs on nickel products when he was in office, and in order to avoid being stuck, China can only set up factories in Indonesia according to the other party's ideas, so in just 4 or 5 years, at least 10 Chinese mining and processing enterprises have emerged in Indonesia.
As a result, it is conceivable that nickel production has risen, but the consumer side has not kept up, resulting in the price of nickel products continuing to plummet since the beginning of spring 2024. For this reason, the Indonesian government may want to tax Chinese products to make up for lost export profits, but the problem is that this move infringes on China's interests.
Third, Indonesia is trying to put pressure on China to pay more.
The reason why China is helping Indonesia build modern transportation is that everyone wants to eat meat together and share the fruits of the fourth industrial revolution. Unexpectedly, after the opening of the "Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway", there were discordant voices in Indonesia, demanding that China continue to build more high-speed rail lines.
Indonesia is not unaware that China's spending has a cost, and it is impossible for China to sign an agreement as soon as its partners cry poor. Moreover, Indonesia is good at speculation, and it is better to nod on the issue of cooperation, so as to avoid the emergence of a pro-US government in Indonesia, which will cause China to lose more benefits.
Fourth, if Indonesia insists on making enemies with China, China does not need to be polite and make its opponents pay the price.
Can you imagine that after Jokowi leaves office, the new ruler will question the consensus on cooperation between China and India. We can't help but wonder why more and more of these countries are insisting on going back to square one. To paraphrase Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, the more open and inclusive the society is, the economic development will not stagnate, and the beggars on the roadside will not be allowed to decide the fate of the country.
The subtext is: Indonesia has just eaten enough for 2 years, and it fantasizes about copying American democracy and fighting for its absolute interests. The Chinese side has nothing to say about this, or can only choose a language that Indonesia understands. If Indonesia starts a trade war with China, China will have to withdraw all its investment and take countermeasures as soon as possible.
The international community should not be surprised that such a thing happened to developed countries, because the United States and Britain will compensate foreign capital in accordance with the law in order to maintain their own dignity. The United States, for example, gave TikTok a 270-day "grace period" to avoid laying off its 5 million small business owners across the board. At the same time, the United States has promised to spend a huge amount of money to buy TikTok.
On the other hand, developing countries such as India, Bolivia, Peru, Mexico, and Indonesia only think about their own benefits, and do not take into account the cost of capital investment and factory construction.
Indonesia's minister is clamoring for heavy tariffs on Chinese products, which may signal a fine-tuning of Sino-Indian relations.
We can even think that a second Philippines may appear. Unfortunately, good intentions don't come in return. In their view, China is a cash cow, and they can come as they want, but Indonesia thinks too much, China is also a big resource country, and China does not lack Indonesia's nickel and market.