2024 is a year in which bond market interest rates will witness history. On June 27, the yield of the 50-year treasury bond active bond "24 Special Treasury Bond 03" closed at 2.48%, breaking through the lower limit of the 2.5% interest rate. At the same time, as of the end of June, the pure bond base index rose 2.03%.
The data shows that bond interest rates have hit a new low, but the market still has consensus expectations for the bond market to be bullish. In the second half of 2024, I remain bullish on the bond market.
On the one hand, the asset shortage still exists, and the bond market is a rare safe haven.
Looking at the current capital market, the real estate industry is in the process of adjustment, the stock market has entered a period of continuous shock, and a large number of funds are looking for new investment channels. Especially in the stock market, the seesaw effect of stocks and bonds is more obvious, which is bullish on the bond market, and investors are more inclined to turn their funds to the relatively stable bond market.
On the other hand, the decline in interest rates has become a high probability event, and the investment cost performance of bonds is highlighted.
Looking at the current economic situation, if we want to promote the economic recovery, we cannot do without the support of active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, and it is expected that the tone of monetary policy will remain relatively loose in the future. The policy orientation of expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth means that there is a greater possibility of RRR and interest rate cuts in the future, which strengthens the market expectation of downward medium and long-term interest rates, and the downward level of market interest rates has pushed bond prices higher.
In addition, the continuous buying of funds is also helping the bond market to bullish.
At present, the strong purchasing power of bonds has provided "ammunition" for institutions to allocate long-term bonds, which has become another important factor supporting the "debt bull". Recently, even if the central bank's open market operation unexpectedly turned into a net withdrawal on the 26th (Wednesday), and the bank's funds converged slightly, from this week's point of view, the net investment volume was 302 billion yuan, and the net investment of 31 billion yuan was maintained this month.
Looking at the second half of 2024, it is expected that the market will form a more consistent bullish expectation while bond interest rates fall sharply and hit record lows. As for the public's concern about the correction in the bond market, I would like to say that whether there will be a correction is not just to focus on the information that already exists, but to pay attention to whether the potential bullish has been fully realized. If there are still incremental funds to allocate bonds in the future, then even if most of the current stock institutions are bullish and long, the follow-up interest rate can still fall further.