On the first trading day of July, A-shares ushered in a good start! It is mainly caused by the divergence between the Shanghai Index and the ChiNext Index, and the main reason behind it is that institutions are adjusting positions and swapping shares, resulting in a clear distinction between the strength and weakness of the sector, but no matter what kind of market the A-share market is staged, the ultimate fate of retail investors is to lose money.
Taking today's A-share trend as an example, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 27 points in the support of real estate, coal, banking and electricity, while the ChiNext and Kechuang 50 were dragged down by the decline of CATL, and almost all of them ran underwater; As a result, the strength of the sector is differentiated, individual stocks are generally rising and falling, and the vast majority of retail investors are still losing money today, why is this?
Reason 1: Because today's A-shares are severely differentiated, the real strength is only real estate, coal and electricity, etc., these stocks have been high, retail investors dare not chase at all, and these stocks obviously attract retail investors to enter the market to take over; If retail investors go to buy the bottom stocks, and the bottom stocks continue to fall, watching the stocks fall, retail capital is evaporated day by day.
Reason 2: Because most of the retail investors are still losing money, and some retail investors are losing money seriously, and it is still far away to turn losses into profits. Even if the stocks held by retail investors have risen today, they are still losing money, not to mention that more than half of the stocks are still falling today, which will only increase the extent of retail investors' losses, so such a differentiated market is meaningless to retail investors.
Reason 3: Because today's stocks do not have a money-making effect at all, only some institutional votes, high-level strong votes and stocks stimulated by good news really have a money-making effect, and many other theme stocks do not rise but fall, even if they rise, they are up about 1%, and the year-on-year decline in such a rise is simply a drizzle, which is also one of the internal reasons why retail investors are still losing money in the face of the rise of the Shanghai Index.
Reason 4: Because today's small and medium-sized theme stocks are still very weak, and theme stocks are the main force of retail investors, only some large-cap stocks really rise, and the rise of large-cap stocks has little to do with retail investors; For example, today's Shanghai Index is indeed very strong, mainly volatile and rising, but it is a pity that retail investors have made money on the index and lost money, such a market is meaningless for retail investors, and they have lost money by making the index.
How will A-shares go tomorrow?
With today's A-share rise again, the Shanghai Composite Index returned to around 3,000 points, this threshold will become a short-term rebound resistance, according to which it is inferred that tomorrow's trend will either be weak or volatile.
Predicting that tomorrow's A-shares will be "first lured long, after the trend of people", first the bulls create a bullish momentum, want to attract a group of bottom-buying funds to enter, after these funds enter the market, the main force must have a batch of chips, so tomorrow's trend of A-shares will either fluctuate around 3000 points, or rush up and fall back to set people.
It means that the trend of tomorrow's A-shares is neutral, either sideways or arbitrary, and the following two points are given as reasons for support.
First: today's A-share continued to fall and rebounded, such a rebound is not optimistic, and it is not high, not far; Superimposed on the Shanghai Index rebound has approached 3,000 points, it is not so easy for A-shares to repair this barrier resistance, so the trend of A-shares tomorrow remains neutral.
Second: no volume, no price, no power, which means that the volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets can shrink by only more than 600 billion, and this volume cannot support the continued rise of A-shares tomorrow; Volume is the driving force, and before the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets do not increase the volume and pull up the reversal signal, everything is a floating cloud.
To sum up, in the face of today's A-share structural market, the Shanghai Index can rise independently, but it is of little significance to retail investors, and it is always not profitable to make money from the index, and even make retail investors lose money; All of this is caused by the fact that the super-large funds are adjusting positions and swapping stocks, and the factors that pull the index with the left hand and smash individual stocks with the right hand are caused, and such a market will continue until tomorrow.
In short, we must look at the current trend of A-shares rationally, and the short-term decline relays the rebound, and the phased adjustment of A-shares has not yet ended, and we need to be cautious and rational. #头条创作挑战赛#