Hot Spotlight //
1. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, the same as the previous month, and the prosperity of the manufacturing industry was basically stable; The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.5 percent, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, higher than the critical point, and the non-manufacturing industry continued to maintain expansion; the composite PMI output index was 50.5 percent, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, higher than the critical point, indicating that the production and business activities of mainland enterprises continued to expand on the whole.
2. Moutai held a market work meeting in some provinces and regions and pointed out that the basic attributes of Moutai have not changed, and the basic demand side has not changed. Compared with the past, although the current situation is more complex, the current Moutai has stronger core competitiveness, better market channel ecology and more resilience in risk prevention, and has the confidence, strength and ability to go through this cycle.
3. With the end of the first half of the year, the performance of the "high school entrance examination" of the public fund has been settled. Invesco Great Wall Nasdaq Technology achieved a return of 33.71% in the first half of 2024, ranking first in the performance of the public offering market; CCB's Emerging Markets Mixed Revenue for the same period was 31.86%, ranking second in the market. Both funds are QDII funds. Manulife Prosperity Pilot's yield in the first half of this year was 30.19%, ranking third in the market.
4. At the end of the first half of 2024, the A-share dividend sector led the market, with the bank index rising by more than 17%, ranking first; The two major industry indices of coal and utilities both rose by more than 10%. The comprehensive sector fell the most, with a cumulative decline of more than 33% in the first half of the year; Computer, commerce and retail, social services and other indices all fell by more than 20%. Among equity ETFs, central state-owned enterprises and dividend-related thematic funds have the highest returns. At the same time, over-the-counter funds bought A-shares through ETFs, and the net inflow of equity ETF funds exceeded 400 billion yuan in the first half of the year.
Global Markets //
1. In the coming week, the global market will continue to be a major event. The Ministry of Finance invited bids for the issuance of 58 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds; The U.S. June non-farm payrolls report was released, and the elections in Britain and France attracted much attention; Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the ECB Forum; The People's Bank of China will have 750 billion yuan of reverse repo due in the open market; The 2024 World Artificial Intelligence Conference opens.
Macro//
1. Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying announced that from July 2 to 6, President Xi Jinping will attend the 24th Meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Astana, and pay a state visit to the two countries at the invitation of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and President of the Republic of Tajikistan Rahmon.
2. The Shenzhen-Zhongshan Corridor was officially opened. As the only direct highway connection between the two major urban agglomerations of Shenzhen-Dongguan-Huizhou and Zhuzhongjiang, the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Corridor is the "key horizontal" of the A-shaped transportation network framework of the Pearl River Estuary. After the opening of the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Corridor, the driving time between Shenzhen and Zhongshan will be shortened from two hours to half an hour, and in the future, it will only take 15 minutes from Nansha in Guangzhou to Zhongshan, and from more than 2 hours to one hour from Zhuhai and Jiangmen to Shenzhen.
3. Recently, the National Defense General has expanded the scope of flood control emergency response, and the Ministry of Finance, together with the Ministry of Transport, further issued 45 million yuan at the end of June to support Anhui, Hubei, Chongqing, Heilongjiang and other four provinces (municipalities) to carry out highway repairs, and support local governments to make every effort to deal with highway damage and blockage caused by landslides and roadbed collapses, and do a good job in rushing to ensure the safety of the people during the flood season.
4. In order to further encourage foreign investment, a series of new measures are being prepared, including the revision and release of a new version of the Catalogue of Encouraged Industries for Foreign Investment, the reduction of foreign investment access restrictions, and the introduction of a new round of pilot measures for the expansion and opening up of the service industry.
Domestic Stock Market //
1. Last week was the closing week of the A-share market in the first half of the year, and after half a year of shocks, how to interpret the market in the second half of the year is about to kick off. Looking forward to the future performance of A-shares, industry insiders judge that mid-July will usher in an intensive disclosure period for semi-annual report performance forecasts, and a small number of bright spots may become the focus of the market in the third quarter; Some growth sectors have clearly shown a performance inflection point, which may become the focus of investors' allocation after the third quarter; For the dividend strategy, in the short-term market risk appetite reduction stage, it continues to play the role of absolute return ballast.
2. From July 1, the new company law came into effect. The revised New Company Law has many bright spots in improving the corporate capital system, optimizing the corporate governance structure, strengthening the protection of the rights and interests of small and medium-sized shareholders, and strengthening the responsibilities of controlling shareholders, actual controllers, directors, supervisors and senior executives. The interviewed experts generally believe that the implementation of the new company law will further consolidate the legal foundation for the healthy development of the capital market, help improve the governance level of listed companies, promote the improvement of the modern enterprise system with Chinese characteristics, strengthen the protection of the legitimate rights and interests of small and medium-sized investors, enhance market confidence, and promote the capital market to achieve high-quality development on the track of marketization and rule of law.
3. With the release of the pre-disclosure time of the semi-annual report of A-share listed companies, the semi-annual report market has become the focus of market attention. As of June 28, a total of 13 companies in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange have disclosed semi-annual operating results, all of which are expected to be profitable; 10 companies are expected to increase their performance year-on-year, of which 3 companies are expected to have a lower limit of more than 50% year-on-year growth. Among the 13 Shenzhen-listed companies, Luxshare Precision, Dalian Heavy Industry, Dinglong Co., Ltd. and other companies are expected to have a maximum net profit of more than 100 million yuan.
4. At the end of the first half of 2024, the "cold winter" of brokerage investment banks has intensified. In the first half of 2024, the lead underwriting income of 44 securities firms totaled 2.652 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 80%; A total of 366 equity financing companies were withdrawn, with an average withdrawal rate of more than 50%; In addition, in the first half of the year, more than 20 investment banks received fines for business violations, and many brokerage investment banks began to cut salaries and lay off employees.
5. With the announcement of the 2023 National Science and Technology Award List, the hard science and technology strength of Shanghai companies has once again been widely recognized, and 64 projects led or participated by 66 companies have "stood out". Since 2018, a total of 264 projects led or participated in by 164 companies in Shanghai have won national science and technology awards, of which 55 companies have been on the list for many times, continuing to blossom and bear fruit in the field of science and technology.
6. IPO companies under review for the first time have successively completed the update of their financial data in 2023, and the review status has changed accordingly. Among them, the status of all 74 IPO companies under review on the Shanghai Stock Exchange has changed, while the status of 20 IPO companies under review on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange has changed. The relevant person in charge of the exchange said that near the end of June, most of the enterprises under review have completed the update of financial data, and the exchange has resumed the review of these enterprises in accordance with the rules.
7. Recently, 9 companies listed on the New Third Board were given disciplinary actions of public reprimand by the National Equities Exchange and Quotations Company, of which 8 companies including Aitanwei were found for failing to prepare and disclose the 2023 annual report before April 30, 2024. Another NEEQ listed company, Songda Education, was given disciplinary punishment by the National Equities Exchange and Quotations Company for inflating its operating income and causing violations of information disclosure.
8. The promulgation of the new "National Nine Measures" has brought long-term impact to the A-share market. With the successive implementation of policies, the interviewed experts generally believe that in the second half of the year, macroeconomic repair efforts are expected to continue to strengthen, and the performance of A-share listed companies is expected to stabilize and rebound.
9. CITIC Securities believes that the three major signals are to be clear, and the market inflection point will appear; Guotai Junan Securities said that the layout rebounded in July, with blue-chip technology first; Huatai Securities said that the "seven turnover" market may still be expected, with A50 as the medium-term bottom position; Haitong Securities said that the improvement of three major factors in the second half of the year is expected to promote the rise of the market center.
10. Affected by many factors, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index once hit a record low in the first half of the year. Looking forward to the second half of the year, many institutions believe that with the resumption of key aspects of the IPO review of the Beijing Stock Exchange, there are many market highlights and investment opportunities, including investment opportunities such as new quality productivity and valuation repair.
11. The Listing Committee of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced that due to the withdrawal of the application for issuance and listing by the company and its sponsor, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange terminated the review of the initial public offering of shares of Haisheng Tungsten and Haisheng Tungsten and the issuance and listing on the GEM.
12. Tianbing Science and Technology issued a statement that during the test of the Long-3 liquid launch vehicle in Gongyi, Henan, the first sub-stage was successfully ignited, with a thrust of 820 tons. However, due to the failure of the connecting structure, the rocket automatically shut down after liftoff, and fell into a nearby mountain to disintegrate. Strict security measures have been put in place prior to the test to ensure the safe evacuation of personnel. After investigation, there were no casualties.
13. The drunkard with a rapid decline in performance welcomed personnel changes again, and the drunkard announced that Wang Zhe, deputy general manager, resigned for personal reasons, and Wang Zhe was the former head of sales of alcoholic liquor, and the subsequent impact on the company remains to be seen. In response, Drunkard Liquor said that Wang Zhe submitted a letter of resignation to the company for personal reasons, and his job was temporarily replaced by Zheng Yi, the general manager of Alcoholic Liquor.
Finance//
1. The results of the 2023 brokerage culture construction rating have been released. Unlike last year's official website directly posting the rating results, this year's results are "point-to-point" notification of brokerages by the China Securities Association. It is reported that 106 brokerages participated in the evaluation this year, including 11 Class A brokerages and 34 Class B brokers; There are a total of 61 Class C brokers. According to people familiar with the matter, the selection is getting more and more roll year by year, and last year you could get a BB grade with a score of 8.5, but this year you can only get a B grade.
2. On July 1, the fund commission reduction was officially implemented, and the reform of the public fund rate reached a new level. In accordance with the requirements of the "Provisions on Strengthening the Management of Securities Transaction Costs of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds", starting from July 1, the stock transaction commission rate of passive equity funds shall not exceed 2.62/10,000, and other expenses such as research services and liquidity services shall not be paid through transaction commissions, and the stock transaction commission rate of other types of funds shall not exceed 5.24/10,000, and other expenses other than research services shall not be paid through transaction commissions.
3. According to China Fund News, after the restriction of "manual interest supplement", the "moving" of deposits has promoted a large increase in the scale of bank wealth management. After the scale of wealth management exceeded 2 trillion yuan in April this year, as of June 14, the latest wealth management scale has reached 29.84 trillion yuan, which is only one step away from the return of bank wealth management to the 30 trillion yuan mark.
4. China Canada Fund announced that Yan Peixian stepped down as the fund manager of five products "due to personal reasons", plus other products that had been resigned before, Yan Peixian no longer has any funds under management. According to the announcement, Yan Peixian has gone through the cancellation procedures with the Asset Management Association in accordance with the regulations. According to relevant industry insiders, Yan Peixian is about to resign from China Canada Fund.
5. The 17.6% equity of Meizhou Merchant Bank will be auctioned on July 25, with a starting price of 418 million yuan. According to the auction announcement, the equity belongs to Chaohua Technology, and the company has been locked in and delisted. In addition to the unknown new fourth largest shareholder, there is also the long exploration and practice of the differentiated development path of private banks.
6. Since the beginning of 2024, the regulatory sub-bureaus of the State Administration of Financial Supervision have issued a total of 495 administrative licenses for the revocation of branches or marketing service departments, of which 363 applications came from life insurance companies. In the long run, data disclosed by regulators shows that in just four and a half years since 2020, 8,689 insurance company branches have been cancelled.
Housing//
1. On June 29, 1,210 second-hand houses were traded in Shanghai, exceeding 1,184 on June 15, and exceeding 1,000 for the fifth time in the month, becoming the highest transaction volume this year. In addition, as of June 29, the total transaction volume of second-hand houses in Shanghai has reached 25,319 units that month, exceeding 25,000 units for the first time since June 2021, setting the highest monthly transaction record in the past three years.
2. In the first half of 2024, the total sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises will be 2,083.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.6%, and the decline will continue to narrow by 3.8 percentage points compared with the previous month, and the year-on-year decline will narrow for 4 consecutive months. Among them, the monthly sales of TOP100 real estate companies in June decreased by 19.55% year-on-year and increased by 26.05% month-on-month, both of which were better than those in May.
3. According to the monitoring data of the China Index Research Institute, more than 20 cities have introduced policies for buying houses and settling down; The combination of housing policy with population and talent policy is forming a trend. Industry insiders pointed out that in the short term, as long as the real estate market is active, no more policies will be introduced, but once the market declines again, the purchase restrictions will be loose, and the household registration will be more relaxed.
Industry//
1. The Beijing Municipal Bureau of Economy and Information Technology publicly solicited opinions on the "Beijing Autonomous Vehicle Regulations (Draft for Comments)". The "Regulations" make it clear that new, reconstructed and expanded roads reserve space for intelligent roadside infrastructure, and encourage the full use of existing facilities to transform and upgrade; encourage the construction of low-latency and high-reliability communication networks; Support relevant entities to carry out pilot applications of autonomous driving maps, and give full play to the role of map support.
2. According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, from January to May, the business income of Internet enterprises in mainland China was 686.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%. The growth rate increased by 1.3 percentage points from January to April. R&D expenditure was 34.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%.
3. Since the beginning of May, the price of vitamin D3 has continued to rise, and many manufacturers have announced that they will increase their prices after the May Day holiday. Since June, the price of vitamin D3 has continued to rise. As of June 27, the market price of vitamin D3 rose to between 80-84 yuan/kg, an increase of 46.43% over the same period last month.
In April and June, the inventory warning index of China's auto dealers was 62.3%, up 8.3 percentage points year-on-year and 4.1 percentage points month-on-month. The inventory warning index is above the boom and wither line, and the automobile circulation industry is in a recession range.
5. Huawei announced that the HUAWEI ADS high-end function package will launch a limited-time preferential price, with the standard price of the ADS high-end function package being 36,000 yuan and the adjusted price being 30,000 yuan, which is 6,000 yuan lower than the original price, and is valid from July 1, 2024 to December 31, 2024, while the price of the high-end intelligent driving package subscription (monthly and annual) remains unchanged, with the monthly price remaining at 720 yuan/month and the annual subscription price at 7,200 yuan/year.
6. According to the data of Maoyan Professional Edition, as of 21:00 on June 30, the cumulative total box office in the first half of 2024 (January 1-June 30, 2024) was reported to be 23.895 billion, with 550 million viewers, 71.173 million screenings, an average ticket price of 43.4 yuan, and 5 films exceeding 1 billion. The top 5 box office in the first half of 2024 are: "Hot and Hot" with an annual box office of 3.460 billion, "Flying Life 2" with an annual box office of 3.398 billion, "Article 20" with an annual box office of 2.454 billion, "Bear Infested: Reversing Time and Space" with an annual box office of 2.006 billion, and "The Annual Meeting Can't Be Stopped!" The annual box office is 1.061 billion.
7. Shagang Group issued an obituary, Comrade Shen Wenrong, chairman of the board of directors of the group, died at 2:10 on June 30, 2024, at the age of 78.
Overseas-
1. The first round of voting in the French National Assembly election has ended. Preliminary vote counts showed that in the first round of voting, the far-right National Alliance received 33% of the vote; The left-wing coalition "New Popular Front" received 28.5% of the vote; The ruling Ba'ath Party and the centrist coalition "together" received 22 percent of the vote.
2. According to the FBI, in the first quarter of 2024, nearly 5.5 million guns were sold in the United States. Data shows that from January to April this year, Americans bought an average of more than 1.3 million guns per month. The states with the highest gun sales were Texas, Florida and California, which accounted for 22 percent of gun purchases in the first quarter of this year.
3. Egypt's cabinet issued a statement saying that Egypt's sovereign fund has signed four green ammonia framework agreements worth $33 billion with European energy companies.
4. The Panama Canal Authority recently announced that due to the arrival of the rainy season, the Panama Canal will resume normal traffic from August. From 11 July, the maximum draft for vessels passing through the Panama Canal will be increased to 14.6 metres, and from 5 August, the maximum number of vessels per day will be increased from the current 32 to 35.
International Stock Market //
1. SK Group, the parent company of South Korea's SK hynix, said that by 2028, SK hynix will invest 103 trillion won to strengthen its chip business and focus on artificial intelligence. The company plans to secure 80 trillion won by 2026 to invest in the fields of artificial intelligence and semiconductors, as well as to fund shareholder returns, and streamline more than 175 subsidiaries.
2. According to Nikkei, Japanese pharmaceutical manufacturer Eisai is developing an Alzheimer's drug, with the goal of commercializing the drug in the United States by 2030. The new drug targets a protein called tau that causes Alzheimer's disease.
3. Volkswagen is recalling some 2022-2024 Golf R, Golf GTI, 2024 Atlas and 2024 Atlas Cross Sport vehicles, totaling 84,432 units. The reason for the recall is that the rearview camera image may be delayed or invalid after shifting into reverse gear. Dealers will update the infotainment system software free of charge.
4. According to the official website of Amazon China, from June 30, 2024, the Kindle China e-book store will stop the cloud download service, and e-books that have not been downloaded after this will not be able to be downloaded and read. At the same time, Kindle customer service will also be discontinued. The Kindle China e-book store has ceased operations on June 30, 2023.
Commodity-
1. The PMI of the steel industry in June was 47.8%, down 2 percentage points month-on-month, ending the month-on-month upward trend for two consecutive months, reflecting the slowdown in pressure on the industry. It is expected that in July, market demand may rebound slightly, steel mill production rebounded slightly, raw material prices fluctuated weakly, and steel prices rebounded slightly.
2. According to the data of the shipping survey agency ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 to 30 were 1306689 tons, a decrease of 11.8% from the 1481916 tons exported in the same period last month.
Bond//
1. China Securities Construction Investment Research Report said that many places have recently announced the issuance plan for the third quarter, of which the new special bonds are planned to be issued more than 1.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 859.3 billion yuan from the second quarter, and it is expected that with the ultra-long-term treasury bonds put into use, special bond projects will continue to start in the third and fourth quarters, and the growth rate of infrastructure is expected to rise in the second half of the year.
2. According to Yicai, the total amount of US dollar bond issuance in the Asia-Pacific region has been close to $22 billion in the past week, soaring to the highest level since January 2023. The main reason behind the resurgence in dollar bonds in the Asia-Pacific region remains that businesses and governments in the region are trying to lock in historically low spreads before widening in anticipation that interest rate differentials between their countries and the United States are likely to climb further.
Foreign exchange//
1. The US dollar and the Japanese yen became the focus of the market last week. The weakening of the US dollar and falling inflation cemented expectations of a Fed rate cut, while the Japanese yen was in a nervous mood amid the threat of intervention by the authorities.
Important Economic Agenda //
Review of historical articles
Witness History! The State Council, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the Exchange made a blockbuster shot", "Shenzhen, Beijing and other places collectively shot", "Gold suddenly dived! Two major negative effects have become an important fuse", "Throughout the 50-year history of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, this time is the most unusual", "Beijing, Shenzhen, Nanjing property market has big news again"
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