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Bridgewater China: China's risk assets are more attractive; Industrial Fund: Patiently wait for the turning point of confidence; CICC: The yield to maturity of convertible bonds is relatively high, and it has the value of left-hand allocation.
1. Macroeconomics
1.1. Bridgewater China: Chinese risk assets are more attractive
Bridgewater China said that in the current global economic situation, China's risk assets are more attractive than other major economies. Chinese policymakers remain accommodative to support deleveraging and economic growth, which is good for the performance of China's risk assets. Despite the challenges of debt and an aging population, China's policy flexibility and accommodative environment provide a comparative advantage for risk assets. Diversified portfolios can hedge against economic growth uncertainties, while continued easing expectations of Chinese policy will result in positive returns on risk assets relative to cash.
1.2. Morgan Stanley: China is expected to avoid the low inflation trap
Morgan Stanley Xing Ziqiang said that China is expected to avoid the low inflation trap. At present, China's economy is initially stabilizing, but it is still facing challenges such as property market adjustment, trade frictions, and whether it can get out of low inflation. However, China's exports are resilient, and policy adjustments in the real estate market will boost consumption, while supply-side and structural reforms will drive a rebalance to consumption. The nominal economy is expected to pick up modestly next year, with inflation and nominal GDP growth picking up further to desirable levels in 2026.
1.3. Guojin Securities: The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least once in the second half of the year
Guojin Securities believes that the current U.S. economy has begun to weaken. Judging from the changes in the driving role of the US GDP in the first quarter, the contribution of finance and consumption has declined, and the Fed has cut interest rates at least once in the second half of the year. If the Fed starts to cut the reserve requirement ratio in the second half of the year, then the downward trend of US Treasury yields will be determined. The decline in U.S. Treasury yields will be conducive to the rise in A-share valuations.
Second, the equity market
2.1. Morgan Stanley: Bullish on dividend assets in a low interest rate environment
Morgan Stanley pointed out that in a low-interest rate environment, dividend assets have become the preferred choice for those seeking stable income due to their "debt-like" attributes and high dividend yields. The CSI Dividend Index shows that dividend assets have high dividend yields and dividend ratios, and their valuations are relatively low, resulting in stable long-term performance. In the current environment, dividend assets still have allocation value, especially if they are looking for stable income.
2.2. CEIBS Fund: Dividend assets still need to be selected and identified
According to the multi-asset research team of CEIBS, the dividend strategy is a long-term and effective investment method, and the core is to find high-quality companies with stable profits, sustainable dividends and reasonable valuations. Despite the rising valuations of dividend assets, dividend strategies still have potential, and the key is to choose targets with higher dividend yields in the future. However, instead of relying solely on dividend indices, dividend assets should be better identified and selected through active management to fully capture the long-term benefits of dividend style.
2.3. Industrial Fund: Wait patiently for the turning point of confidence
Industrial Fund said that compared with last year, this year's A-share market has experienced a weak pattern in the past few years, investor confidence is weak, and the market may continue to fluctuate after the impulse rises. Despite this, the upward trend of shocks is still there, and the implementation of the new "National Nine Measures" policy is expected to change the market ecology and promote the transformation of the market to a stable long-term bull pattern. At the same time, the upcoming Third Plenum in July may change market expectations and confidence, and it is recommended to wait patiently for the change of confidence inflection point. In addition, you can use broad-based index ETF products such as CSI 300 and CSI 500 to take advantage of market opportunities.
3. Fixed income
3.1. CICC: The yield to maturity of convertible bonds is relatively high, and it has the value of left-hand allocation
CICC said that the convertible bond market has experienced sharp volatility recently. However, the current yield to maturity in the convertible bond market is relatively high, and the premium rate of pure bonds is at a historically low level, which has the value of left-hand allocation. Despite credit risk concerns, most convertible bonds end their life cycle through equity swaps, and managers with good credit ratings are able to avoid problematic bonds. It is recommended to pay attention to the corresponding convertible bond funds according to the risk tolerance, and pay special attention to the risk that the convertible bond fund may amplify the volatility of the investment portfolio.
3.2. Huaan Securities: There are still investment opportunities in the urban investment bond market
Yan Ziqi of Huaan Securities and others said that under the implementation of the debt policy, the difficulty of new financing in the urban investment bond market has increased, and medium and high-grade entities can still maintain a net increase, but low-grade urban investment has been net repayment for 9 consecutive months. The financing of urban investment bonds has shrunk sharply, and the net financing of bonds rated AA and below has continued to be negative. Despite this, there are still investment opportunities in the urban investment bond market, especially the increased acceptance of medium- and long-term low-grade urban investment bonds, and the bottoming of credit spreads across the board. It is recommended to pay attention to sinking and duration strategies and look for high-coupon assets.
3.3. Galaxy Securities: Interest rate bond yields may continue to decline in the second half of the year
Galaxy Securities said that in the first half of the year, the bond market as a whole fluctuated and bullish, and the yields of interest rate bonds and credit bonds fell to historical lows, mainly driven by the slow repair of fundamentals, loose monetary policy and asset shortage. In the second half of the year, it is expected that the fundamentals will continue to repair, the asset shortage may continue, and the yield of interest rate bonds may continue to decline. The convertible bond market is stronger than the equity market, but weaker than the pure bond market. It is expected that corporate profits will continue to recover in the second half of the year, focusing on upstream energy materials, export and overseas related industries, as well as new and old kinetic energy conversion related targets.
Fourth, industry research
4.1. Industrial Fund: "Kete Valuation" shows that the state attaches great importance to new quality productivity
Liao Huanhuan of Industrial Fund said that the concept of "special valuation" reflects the country's emphasis on the development of new productive forces, and the rapid development of the science and technology industry and the market's re-understanding of the valuation of science and technology enterprises are the reasons behind it. Compared with the "special assessment", the "special assessment" focuses more on the drive of scientific and technological innovation and the independent and controllable development of the scientific and technological manufacturing industry. It is recommended to pay attention to the field of technological innovation, especially high-tech sectors such as artificial intelligence and semiconductors, and carry out medium and long-term layout.
4.2. Invesco Great Wall: AI technology is evolving from the cloud to the terminal
Invesco Great Wall said that the development of AI technology is an important trend in the current technology field. The three U.S. technology giants have demonstrated their competitiveness in the battle for market value through in-depth deployment of AI. In China, with the establishment of the third phase of the National Fund, the semiconductor industry chain may usher in a new leap. At the same time, AI technology is developing from the cloud to the terminal, and it is expected to become a personal AI assistant that can be used by individual users in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to the development of computing power and AI terminals for a long time.
4.3. Zhonggeng Fund: The outlook for crude oil demand in summer is good
Zhonggeng Fund said that the top rise in petroleum and petrochemical in the week was mainly due to the recent continuous rise in crude oil market prices, the decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, and the weekly demand rose to a new high this year, and the market was optimistic about the prospect of summer crude oil demand.
The pharmaceutical sector fell sharply, mainly due to the intensification of the market's concerns about the policy, and the recent frequent launch of the pharmacy price comparison system caused the rapid decline of the pharmacy sector, which aggravated the market's negative sentiment towards the pharmaceutical sector as a whole; At the same time, under pressure on the payment side, it is difficult for medicine to find a strong fundamental sector and support the stock price of the sector.
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In accordance with relevant laws and regulations, Shanghai Wind Fund Sales Co., Ltd. makes the following risk disclosures:
1. Infrastructure funds have different risk-return characteristics from public funds that invest in stocks or bonds, and the expected risk is lower than that of equity funds and higher than that of bond funds and money market funds. Investors should fully understand the investment risks of infrastructure funds and the risk factors disclosed in this prospectus and make prudent investment decisions.
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4. If the product you purchased operates in a regular open mode or the fund contract stipulates a minimum holding period for fund shares, you will face liquidity constraints due to the inability to redeem or sell fund shares during the closed period or minimum holding period.
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Shanghai Wind Fund Sales Co., Ltd
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Past performance of the fund and its net worth or the performance of other funds managed by the fund manager are not indicative of its future performance. Wind Fund and related personnel do not promise that any investment income or investment principal will not be lost. Wind Fund and related personnel shall not be liable for any loss caused by the use of this article or its content or other reasons related thereto, as well as any direct or indirect loss caused by the publication of this article or its content, or due to errors in the communication of facts or analytical data. The performance data of the Fund cited in this article is derived from information disclosed by the Manager and reviewed by the Custodian, including but not limited to the Fund's periodic reports.
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