PVC Futures Analysis
On July 1, the opening price of V2409 contract: 6045, the highest price: 6094, the lowest price: 6030, the open interest: 855122, the settlement price: 6063, yesterday's settlement: 6042, up 21, the daily volume: 710779 lots, precipitation funds: 3.646 billion, capital inflow: 10.73 million.
A comprehensive list of prices by region
RMB/ton
PVC spot market
The mainstream transaction price of the domestic PVC market reversed, and the afternoon session began to tentatively increase slightly. Valuation comparison: North China rose 20 yuan/ton, East China rose 30-40 yuan/ton, South China rose 20-30 yuan/ton, Northeast China rose 50 yuan/ton, Central China rose 10 yuan/ton, and Southwest China was stable. The ex-factory price of upstream PVC production enterprises continued to remain stable, some enterprises began to slightly raise the ex-factory price of 20-50 yuan / ton, the price rose in the afternoon after the price shock, the spot market price offer was relatively stable in the morning, and the price rose slightly in the afternoon, the current spot market point price offer and a fixed price coexisted, including the basis offer in East China 09 contract - (350), South China 09 contract - (250), North China 09 contract - (500-580), Southwest 09 contract - (450). At the beginning of the week, although the price of the spot market rose in the afternoon, the corresponding transaction did not improve, and the downstream held a certain wait-and-see mentality for the market after the price increase.
From a futures perspective
PVC2409 contract opened in a narrow range at the end of the session, and even weakened slightly during the session. At the beginning of the morning session, the price began to fluctuate and rise, and the price rose further in the late afternoon, and closed higher at the end of the session. The 2409 contract fluctuated in the range of 6030-6094 throughout the day, the spread was 64, the 09 contract reduced its position by 2835 lots, and the position was 855122 so far, and the 2501 contract closed at 6255, with a position of 125698 lots.
PVC market outlook
Futures: The trend of the futures price of the PVC2409 contract has shown a certain upward trend, and there is no small capital inflow on the disk, and the transaction point of view is 24.1% more than 21.9% compared with the short open, and the disk shows a small long sentiment, and the high point of the futures price of 6094 is in line with the high point expectations we gave. The technical level shows that the opening of the three rails of the Bollinger Bands (13, 13, 2) has narrowed, the lower rail has turned upward, and the overall price fluctuations have gone between the middle and lower rails, slightly out of the sideways trend of the lower range, and the KD line at the daily level has crossed the two lines. On the whole, the fluctuation of the futures price in the short term may have a certain positive performance, but the range of the high point may be limited, and the performance of the range of 6030-6140 is observed.
Spot: coincided with a slight increase in the price of the two markets on Monday, including the upstream production enterprises factory offer also tentatively raised the quotation, but in terms of transactions, whether it is a generation of contracts or traders' shipments, I have not heard of a better transaction, but after the point price lost its advantage, the downstream trading wait-and-see is not positive. From the perspective of supply and demand, PVC production enterprises still have maintenance after entering July, but on the demand side, the downstream demand is still poor according to the feedback of merchants, and the high inventory of the supply and demand game has always been the consensus. In terms of other fundamentals, the price of calcium carbide has declined recently, the pressure on the cost port of calcium carbide has been eased, and the share of exports is relatively stable, but the sea freight has risen significantly. On the basis of the current consensus fundamentals, the spot market is expected to continue to maintain a narrow range of adjustment in the short term after the prices of the two markets continue to test the low range, waiting for a turnaround.
PVC spread arbitrage analysis
Domestic PVC index
According to Tu Duoduo data, the domestic calcium carbide PVC spot index on July 1 was 5721.91, up 22.87, or 0.401%. The ethylene PVC spot index was 6018.97, up 25.78, or 0.430%, the calcium carbide index rose, the ethylene index rose, and the ethylene method-calcium carbide index spread was 297.03.
PVC warehouse receipt daily report
PVC long and short positions are on the list
The information provided in this report is for informational purposes only