Before reading this article, I sincerely invite you to click "Follow", which is not only convenient for you to discuss and share, but also brings you a different sense of participation, thank you for your support.
At a time when China and the Philippines are constantly clashing over the issue of islands and reefs in the South China Sea, the Philippines can be said to have shown its cheekiness to the extreme. On June 21, a senior Philippine official called the previous standoff a "misunderstanding."
But by June 24, the Philippine caliber had been unified again. The Philippine side, in turn, called the coercive and forceful measures taken by the mainland coast guard against the Philippines for transporting supplies to beached warships illegal and with very aggressive connotations.
However, on June 25, the Philippine foreign secretary conveyed his desire to hold a dialogue with the mainland on the issue of islands and reefs in the South China Sea to resolve the current differences between China and the Philippines.
It is worth noting that on June 25, the Philippine side issued a statement seeking dialogue for the first time. As a matter of fact, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. had already sent a strong signal that he would hold a dialogue with the mainland. It can be said that the Philippine government's current strategy is to mitigate the situation.
That is, not to make such a stiff fuss on the surface. In addition, the Philippine foreign minister also revealed that there is a specific bilateral consultation mechanism in place, the purpose of which is to clarify the South China Sea issue so as to eliminate the possibility of large-scale conflicts.
So is the sincerity of the Philippines really as good as they themselves advertise? The answer is not so, and the Philippines is "seeking peace" on the surface because it does not want to be unable to step down. Secretly, the Philippines will still smuggle supplies to the stranded warship.
We have three major conditions
In response to the recent signals frequently released by the Philippine side, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China also set out three major conditions on the current situation at the relevant regular press conference. First of all, some countries must be wary of interference by countries outside the region and take the lead themselves.
The implication is to warn the Philippines that if it secretly contacts the United States over the issue of islands and reefs in the South China Sea and causes trouble, then the Philippines must be prepared to swallow the consequences. This is because it is in the interests of neighboring countries to maintain the overall stability of the situation in the South China Sea.
The mainland will not tolerate countries that undermine the overall stability of the South China Sea with the aim of wanton destruction. Second, the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea should be used as a code of conduct, and the mainland is willing to promote active consultation and dialogue among all parties in the South China Sea for full implementation.
Third, the mainland is willing to manage its differences with the countries concerned, but the countries concerned should immediately stop the relevant violations and guarantee that they will not be committed again in the future. Some analysts believe that there is a high possibility of recidivism in the Philippines. This means that the dialogue and consultation mechanism can only go through the motions.
Although Biden did not explicitly mention the situation of disputes in the South China Sea and the situation in the Taiwan Strait in his confrontation with Trump, it does not mean that the United States will give up using these two aspects to attack the mainland. Just like the Philippines has a set on the surface and behind it, the United States is also playing a slippery game.
The fate of the beached warship will not change
It is worth noting that whether the Philippines chooses to continue smuggling or not to smuggle in the future. The fate of the beached warship will not change in any way. The Philippine warship that ran aground near Ren'ai Jiao could only usher in the end of continuous erosion by the sea and finally its demise.
Why? The main thing is that this conflict has opened an opening. The initiative of the Philippines to seek dialogue means that the coercive measures taken by our side are absolutely reasonable and legal on the face of it. If the Philippines dares to smuggle it, our coast guard ships will inevitably continue as before.
We will not sit idly by and watch the smuggling of goods by the Philippine side. In this way, the unsuccessful smuggling of the Philippines in the future can only become an act of eating and losing money. In the international community, it will lose the "legal cloak" of being intervened and spoken out by the United States and other countries outside the region.
In this regard, some netizens said that it should have been like this a long time ago. The mainland coast guard law enforcement ship should behave so hard. In fact, there are many more twists and turns behind this than that. Why does the mainland maintain great restraint despite having the cloak of legitimacy and reasonableness? It is to be afraid of the United States.
If the United States wants to personally step up its deterrence against the mainland, then the mainland's consumption of power in the disputes over islands and reefs in the South China Sea will continue to increase. And this is not very favorable for the situation in the Taiwan Strait. As far as the mainland is concerned, the most important issue at present is the Taiwan issue.
The double preparation is ready
However, this does not mean that the situation in the Taiwan Strait is the highest priority, and the islands and reefs in the South China Sea should be abandoned accordingly. In fact, the mainland has the ability to deal with and deal with both of these things. And the Philippines has repeatedly jumped feet many, many times.
If the mainland is not prepared accordingly, it will undoubtedly suffer. Therefore, the mainland can be regarded as being prepared to increase the deployment of military forces while holding dialogues and consultations. As long as the Philippines has any transgressions, our law enforcement vessels will certainly show no mercy.
However, the mainland still needs to be vigilant against two major directions. The first direction is that the Philippine government may reaffirm the actual effect of the South China Sea arbitration in order to regain power in the open. In other words, the Philippines' bow is only bowing in terms of the use of force.
It is likely that the Philippines will continue to provoke in a detour to reaffirm the rights conferred on the Philippines by the "South China Sea Arbitration". The second direction is to be wary of Vietnam, a neighboring country that is growing friendly and close to the United States among the countries surrounding the South China Sea.
In the early 80s of the last century, Vietnam had a conflict with the mainland over islands and reefs. Vietnam was supported by the former Soviet superpower. Now that the former Soviet Union is gone, Vietnam has turned to the arms of the United States and continues to pursue its inherent interests.
If the Philippines and Vietnam join forces, it is very likely that the mainland will have no time to look east about the situation in the Taiwan Strait. It can be said that there is still a long way to go to stabilize the situation in the South China Sea, because the United States has always been kind to other countries.
Resources:
https://www.toutiao.com/article/7384465705321628172/?channel=&source=search_tab
Due to the rules of the platform, you will only be recognized as a fan if you have more interaction with me. If you like my articles, you can click "Follow" and receive the article push as soon as you become a fan.