The rivalry between Marcos and the Duterte family has intensified against the backdrop of next year's midterm elections. The so-called once a son of heaven and a courtier, Lao Du, who has abdicated, seems to have fewer and fewer advantages.
A few days ago, the Philippine Federation Party led by Marcos and the National Unity Party, another party in the Philippines, announced an alliance and signed a partnership, adding another ally to the new ruling party coalition "New Philippine Alliance" formed by Marcos. The goal of the two sides is to win the midterm elections in the Philippines next year.
The Philippine Senate is composed of 24 senators, each serving a six-year term, and next year's midterm elections will elect 12 of them, as well as a number of other representatives and local executives. If the Marcos camp is unable to win the midterm elections, the formulation and implementation of its subsequent policies and other factors will be affected.
[Philippine National Unity Party joins Marcos' "New Philippine Alliance"]
What's more, Duterte is poised to "make a comeback" through next year's midterm elections, where he and both of his sons will run for the Senate.
Not long ago, the vice president of the Philippines, Sarah, the daughter of Lao Du, announced her resignation from two important positions in the Marcos administration. Sarah can be regarded as a symbol of the alliance between Marcos and Duterte, and now Sarah's departure means the breakdown of the alliance. At the same time, Sarah's departure has also provided political space for the Duterte family and Marcos to confront each other, raising the possibility of "polarization" in the Philippines.
In this case, next year's midterm elections will be an uphill battle for Marcos. As a result, Marcos is drawing more parties into his coalition to ensure an advantage in the midterm elections.
What's more worth mentioning is that the Philippine National Unity Party, which Marcos newly recruited this time, joined the ruling coalition led by the then ruling party of the Philippines in 2016. That is, the party was previously an ally of Lao Du, but now it has fallen into Marcos's camp.
This seems to indicate that the Duterte family is on the losing foot in this battle. In any case, now that the power of the Philippines is in the hands of Marcos, it is very difficult for Lao Du to suppress Marcos.
[Marcos and Duterte's ruling coalition is heading for collapse]
As we all know, since Marcos broke away from Duterte's friendly line toward China and moved closer to the United States, there has been a rift in his alliance with Duterte. Duterte openly denounced Marcos as an "addict" who "didn't finish college" and so on. The Marcos camp also fought back against Lao Du and his cronies.
Sarah is accused of taking advantage of her position and is suspected of serious corruption. The first lady of the Philippines, Marcos' wife, also publicly criticized Sarah, accusing her of supporting Lao Du in drug charges against Marcos. In April, Philippine lawmakers again publicly accused Sarah for failing to distance herself from the Duterte family.
At the same time, Apollo Quiboloy, who is regarded as Duterte's spiritual mentor, has a strong social influence that has provided him with a lot of help during Duterte's administration. Today, the Marcos administration has repeatedly targeted Quibolloi and put him on a wanted list.
Some time ago, Marcos acted again and carried out a purge of the Philippine police force, and many police officers close to Duterte or related to Duterte were replaced. For example, in Davao City, an important stronghold of the Duterte family, Marcos changed his police chief, and in just two days, 35 police officers have been replaced.
All signs mean that Lao Du's political influence in Philippine politics is rapidly dissipating, and when he confronts Marcos, Lao Du has fewer and fewer hole cards in his hand.
[Duterte once threatened to lead Mindanao to "independence"]
At this time, some people may ask, doesn't Duterte still have Mindanao? Previously, Mr. Du had threatened Marcos that he would lead Mindanao to "independence." This is Lao Du's stronghold, and in addition, separatism is already serious in the region, if he wants to become independent, it may be really possible.
However, not everyone is in favor of independence. Previously, 57 Philippine lawmakers had joined forces to oppose Mindanao's independence, including 53 from Mindanao. There are even many Philippine lawmakers who belong to Duterte's camp to speak out and reject the act of separatism, otherwise they will file a lawsuit against the initiators. So, Mindanao is indeed an unstable factor, but Duterte has to take care of a lot of things when playing this card, and even as a last resort, this card cannot be used lightly.
What's worse is that Sarah, who was originally very popular, has now seen a significant drop in her approval rating.
The latest poll shows that Sarah's approval rating is down 20 percentage points from two years ago. Compared to the first quarter, Sarah's approval rating fell from 53% to 46% in the second quarter of this year, and the trust rating dropped from 46% to 41%. Even in Mindanao, the home of the Duterte family, Sarah's approval rating has dropped from 75 percent to 68 percent, and trust has fallen from 67 percent to 65 percent.
[Polls show that Sarah's support has declined]
Now, Marcos is on a recruiting spree and is vowed to win next year's midterm elections. Whether the Duterte family will be able to win this political contest is uncertain.
Changes in the Philippines' domestic politics are closely related to China-Philippines relations and the future direction of the situation in the South China Sea. Whether the Philippine government will change or ease its stance on the South China Sea issue in the future requires us to continue to pay close attention to the struggle between the two major Philippine families.