Weekly Price Report | Pulp (6.21-6.27)

Weekly Pulp Market Report (2024.6.21-2024.6.27 |.) Week 26), details are as follows:

Main content:

Market Overview

International Market:

This week (6.21-6.27), the international pulp market was generally weak, and domestic pulp prices fell synchronously. Due to the aggravation of downstream resistance to a new round of external quotations, the market has come to a standstill.

A number of overseas pulp mills announced that the price of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp was withdrawn in June, and the price was flat in May. At the same time, Suzano announced that the price of the US dollar in July was flat, entering a stable stage.

On the supply side, a number of pulp mills announced production cuts and shutdowns, and Brazil's 2.25 million tons hardwood pulp line was postponed. Although there are signs of tightening on the supply side of the international market, due to the weak domestic market demand, it is difficult to implement the price, and the international pulp price may face downward pressure.

Domestic Market:

The domestic wood pulp market has different trends, and the futures market is mixed, and the main contract of SP09 fluctuates around 6,000 yuan/ton. The spot price of softwood pulp was firm, the price of hardwood pulp fell rapidly, and the price of hardwood pulp in some areas fell by 100-200 yuan/ton, locally to 5300 yuan/ton.

The price of softwood pulp fluctuates little, and some operators are reluctant to sell it at a low price. Although the quotation of the external disk was lowered, the import profit was still negative, and the import reduction limited the downward space of domestic pulp prices, and domestic and foreign prices restrained each other.

Domestic pulp market

Price Changes:

This week (6.21-6.27), the price center of gravity of the domestic pulp market shifted downward, and the downstream paper enterprises entered the market to buy in a poor mood, and the actual transaction was mainly based on rigid demand. The follow-up of new orders of pulp mills is limited, the shipment speed is slowing down, and the quotation of large-scale pulp mills is mainly based on actual order negotiation, and the shipment price policy is more flexible.

At present, the production of mainstream pulp mills is stable, and the new pulp line in South China is about to be put into operation, and the subsequent market price of hardwood pulp will have great downward pressure. The bamboo pulp market in southwest China has remained stable, and downstream factories have started at a low level, and the shipping pressure has increased. The sugarcane pulp market in Guangxi is stable, the supply and demand relationship is balanced, and there is no inventory pressure for the time being. The price of reed pulp in Liaoning stabilized, and the overall operating load decreased.

Availability:

Suzano announced that eucalyptus pulp quotations remained flat in July, and the new pulp mill that was scheduled to start production was postponed. Metsä Group's Kemi pulp and bioproduct mill resumed production and repairs to the gas explosion in the cooking hall have been completed.

Pulp imports in May were 2.82 million tons, down 12.5% month-on-month and 10.6% year-on-year. The domestic Liansheng hardwood pulp production capacity of 1.66 million tons is expected to be genuine in July, and the short-term supply pressure is greater.

Demand status

Paper Market:

This week (6.21-6.27) the household paper market weakened, downstream processing plants had fewer orders for finished products, the demand for base paper was weak, paper companies took the initiative to reduce prices and inventory, and the market price center of gravity shifted downward. The gross profit of paper mills is low, cost pressure exists, the enthusiasm of enterprises to start work has declined, and the supply has gradually narrowed.

The coated paper market trend is stable, the prices of mainstream factories are consolidated, the overall shipment is average, dealers give priority to orders, and some hold the price wait-and-see. The double offset paper market is deadlocked, the factory is difficult to push up, the downstream mentality is cautious, the demand side has not seen a significant increase, and traders exchange price for volume.

Availability:

As of June 27, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 1.711 million tons, down 112,000 tons from the previous period and down 6.1% from the previous month. Inventory shows a trend of destocking in a narrow range. The consumption of chemical pulp in Europe was 859,400 tons, an increase of 10.62% year-on-year, the inventory was 668,800 tons, an increase of 0.28% year-on-year, and the inventory days were 25 days, an increase of 2 days over the same period last year.

Costs vs. Profits

Cost:

This week (6.21-6.27) the cost of the pulp industry was 3727.48 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from last week. The woodchip market weakened, paper mills were less willing to receive goods, the price of imported woodchips continued to weaken, and the price of overseas woodchips was low, suppressing the domestic woodchip market price. Since the beginning of this year, the price of wood chips has continued to weaken.

Profit:

The gross profit of the pulp industry was 782.19 yuan/ton, and the gross profit margin was 17.43%. Recently, the price of some domestic pulp market has been lowered, the price fluctuation of raw material end wood chips and chemicals is limited, and the overall profit of domestic pulp mills has declined slightly compared with the previous period due to the high loosening of imported pulp prices, but the profits of the whole industry chain are still considerable.

Forecast for the future

Total Market:

The external quotation is weak and stable, the uncertainty of the supply side still exists, and the supplier has a firm attitude towards the price outlook. With the release of pressure on new production capacity, coupled with weak market demand in China, downstream resistance to high-priced raw materials, pulp US dollar prices are expected to be under pressure.

Short-term market:

The price increase of downstream finished products was blocked, the prices of some paper grades continued to decline, the overall profits of paper mills were low, and the demand for raw material pulp continued to be light. Import profits are inverted higher, and the later supply reduction is expected to support the disk, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 5800-6100 yuan/ton.

Core data

Pulp prices

The average price of the domestic pulp market was 5095 yuan/ton, down 1.07% from last week.

The spot market price of softwood pulp was 6274 yuan/ton, down 0.08% from last week.

The spot market price of hardwood pulp was 5,379 yuan/ton, down 2.96% from last week.

The spot market price of natural color paste was 5480 yuan/ton, which remained stable.

Imported pulp

The total amount of imported pulp in May was 2.819 million tons, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year.

The import volume of softwood pulp in May was 704,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.68% and a month-on-month decrease of 14.26%.

The import volume of hardwood pulp in May was 1.2558 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.61% and a month-on-month decrease of 7.55%.

Costs vs. Profits

This week (6.21-6.27) the cost of the pulp industry was 3727.48 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from last week.

This week (6.21-6.27), the gross profit of the pulp industry was 782.19 yuan/ton, and the gross profit margin was 17.43%.

inventory

As of June 27, the sample inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 1.711 million tons, down 112,000 tons from the previous period and down 6.1% month-on-month.

yield

This week (6.21-6.27), domestic pulp production is expected to be 156,500 tons, a decrease of 5.15% month-on-month.

Double offset paper

This week (6.21-6.27) the output of the double-offset paper market was 222,700 tons, an increase of 0.50% month-on-month.

The average market price was about 5612 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 0.44%.

Paper

This week (6.21-6.27) coated paper market output is expected to be 90,500 tons, an increase of 1.32% month-on-month.

The average market price was 5725 yuan/ton, which was basically stable compared with last week.

White cardboard

This week (6.21-6.27), the supply of white cardboard market was about 188,100 tons, down 0.69% month-on-month.

The gross profit of the industry was -298.14 yuan/ton, and the gross profit margin was -6.58%.

Data source: General Administration of Customs/National Bureau of Statistics/BAIINFO/Baichuan Yingfu Big Data