Recently, the Philippines and the United States have been conspiring to intervene in the South China Sea issue on the mainland, and since the pro-US Philippine President Marx Jr. came to power, Philippine-US relations, which have been gradually dormant for many years, have reached a new peak.
The Philippines has long been an important country in Southeast Asia and plays an important role in geopolitical issues, but since Marx Jr. came to power, relations between the Philippines and China have been strained, all because of the islands and reefs in the South China Sea.
Since last year, the Philippines and the United States have made frequent moves in the South China Sea, conducting several rounds of large-scale joint military exercises, including naval and air coordination, coordinated landing operations, and also bombing and sinking a target ship near Scarborough Shoal for a week during the exercise.
The response of the PLA
In the face of the military exercises launched by the Philippines and the United States in the South China Sea, the People's Liberation Army also carried out a series of responses last year and this year, and the Philippines seems to be in a state of weakness, and even the round-the-island exercises carried out by our military in the Taiwan Strait can make the Philippines nervous.
Some Philippine media believe that part of the reason for the PLA's exercises is that the previous agreement on defense cooperation between the United States and the Philippines was due to the opening of several new military bases to the United States last year.
The reason why the Philippines thinks this way is that in fact, they themselves understand in their hearts that the newly signed agreement between the United States and the Philippines is to a large extent to serve the US strategy in the Taiwan Strait, or that if a war really breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, then the Philippines is likely to be the bridgehead for the United States to participate in a conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
Of the four new Philippine military bases opened to the United States, three are facing Taiwan and are located in the northern part of Luzon. It is not difficult to imagine that if the United States really uses these bases to interfere in the situation in the Taiwan Strait, then the Philippines is likely to become one of the targets of attack, so this is why the PLA is conducting exercises around the Taiwan Strait, but the Philippines shows weakness.
However, although the current situation in the Taiwan Strait is more tense than ever after the Lai Qingde government came to power, the possibility of a real war in the Taiwan Strait is not very large, at least in the near future, and the situation that the Philippines is more worried about at present should be that once Marx Jr. decides to continue to muddy the waters near the South China Sea, then the mainland's first countermeasures may be in two aspects, which is what the Philippines should be most worried about.
The mainland can make a fuss in the direction of Scarborough Shoal
Earlier, the Philippines blew up a target ship around Scarborough Shoal, and in the official language of the Philippine side, it was only part of the exercise and was not aimed at any country.
But a discerning person can see what is going on at a glance, and the point of this exercise is to Scarborough Shoal.
For Scarborough Shoal, the Philippines has always been ready to move, but like Ren'ai Jiao, Scarborough Shoal has been part of China since ancient times, which was undisputed before that, and the government of Marx Jr. wants to take Scarborough Shoal, he also knows that with the mainland's current economic and political influence in the world, this wish is still difficult to achieve, and the history of Scarborough Shoal has never had much to do with the Philippines.
In fact, although Huangyan Dao is said to be an island, it is actually just a small island and reef like Ren'ai Jiao, it is located in the middle of the South China Sea, it is one of the few small islands and reefs in the Zhongsha Islands that are exposed to the water, and the shape of the whole island and reef is also very unique, roughly showing a triangular shape, although it is a small island and reef, but the area is also 150 square kilometers.
The key is that the resources around this small island and reef are very rich, there are many fish resources, there are not a few oil and gas resources on the seabed, and there are more than 30 kinds of metals contained in the soft mud of shrimp on the bottom of the water.
In addition, if the Philippines occupies Scarborough Shoal, then from the side, the entire Xisha Islands may be snatched by the Philippines in this way, and the surrounding area of 100 nautical miles may belong to the territory of the Philippines, which is unacceptable to the mainland, so whether it is Scarborough Shoal or Ren'ai Jiao, the mainland has seen through the Philippines' wolf ambitions.
Like the current situation of Scarborough Shoal, Ren'ai Jiao has always been part of the mainland territory before, and there has been no dispute until the end of the 90s of the last century, when the Philippines had a landing ship sailing in the vast Pacific Ocean, and as a result of such a large Pacific Ocean, it came to Ren'ai Jiao impartially and ran aground, regardless of whether the Philippine government was premeditated or accidental, and the accident must be resolved as soon as possible.
The mainland also held discussions with the Philippine side, and the Philippine side said at that time that the landing ship had a hole poked in the bottom of the ship and could not sail, so that the tugboat would enter the water as soon as it was towed.
In this regard, after understanding the ins and outs of the matter, we also gave the Philippines enough face and let it repair before leaving, but what people did not expect was that this repair took 24 years, during which the Philippines did not transport ship repair tools such as screws and electric welding, but smuggled a bunch of cement.
Regardless of whether the grounding incident was premeditated by the Philippine side, the fact is that the landing ship will be laid to rest at Ren'ai Jiao for the rest of its life.
Therefore, the mainland must not be soft on the Scarborough Shoal incident, and the best way to respond, and the way that the Philippines is most worried about, is to blow sand and reclaim Scarborough Shoal.
Once the mainland does reclaim Scarborough Shoal, it will create a "triangle" in the South China Sea, and then it will establish a "triangle air defense" zone with nearby Woody Island and Fiery Cross Island.
If the mainland builds an airfield here and deploys fighter jets, it will take less than 10 minutes to take off from Scarborough Shoal to reach the Philippine airspace, which is equivalent to deploying military forces in the back garden of the Philippines, which the Philippine side does not want to see.
Once this triangular air defense ring is established, any country that wants to carry out activities near the South China Sea in the future will have to obtain permission from the mainland.
Therefore, if the Philippines really unscrupulously provokes the waters around Scarborough Shoal, then forcing the mainland to adopt the method of reclamation to make Scarborough Shoal a strategic zone on the front line of the South China Sea, then I am afraid that only the Philippines will be uncomfortable.
In addition, in addition to Scarborough Shoal, the Philippines has also expressed concern about possible economic sanctions imposed by the mainland, after all, since the beginning of this year. Bilateral trade between the mainland and the Philippines has reached nearly $90 billion, and China has been the Philippines' largest trading partner for seven consecutive years.
Although in terms of numbers, the Philippines' profits in Sino-Philippine trade are relatively small, it does not prevent the Philippines from being very dependent on the mainland in terms of industrial chains.
First of all, China is currently one of the largest trading partners and investors of the Philippines, all of which stemmed from the fact that the previous president of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, shelved the disputes in the South China Sea and tried to establish good relations with the mainland during his political tenure.
The Philippines not only imports large-scale mechanical parts and industrial products to the mainland, but also has reached large-scale projects such as national power grid and bridge construction with mainland enterprises.
In terms of agricultural and sideline products, although the Philippines is a Southeast Asian country and does not lack fruits, they still import a large number of fruits, crops and other products from the mainland, in addition to industrial rubber raw materials and other products, the Philippines also imports a lot, basically these trades are related to the field of people's livelihood, and the two countries can be said to be mutually beneficial here.
On the other hand, the mainland's total exports this year have reached an astonishing 6.3 trillion yuan, of which the Philippines' contribution only accounts for less than 2 percent, that is to say, even if the relationship between the mainland and the Philippines continues to be bad and economic sanctions are to be taken, then the mainland will only lose 2 percent, and the Philippines cannot say that it will not survive after losing the mainland, a trading partner, but it will definitely not find a trading partner with such a high cost performance.
Given the current situation, is it necessary for the mainland to take a two-pronged approach and let the Philippines try China's strength?
In fact, it really hasn't come to this point, as far as the current point of view, the Philippines has not said that it completely ignores the advice of the mainland to go to the black, so there is no need for us to use the final killer move, because once the hole cards are used, the result may not be as we want, but will force the Philippine dog to jump off the wall.
Moreover, now we compare the two Philippine governments, former President Duterte obviously put the interests of the Philippines first, focusing on economic construction, rather than trying to engage in confrontation, on the other hand, the current President Marx Jr. is completely different, he has his own careful thoughts, many people may not know, Marx Jr.'s family has a lot of interests abroad, especially in Western countries, so in the case of considering the interests of his own family, he has to sacrifice the interests of some countries and is willing to act as a pawn of the United States. If there is no family interest, he may be like Duterte, and he does not have to think too much about it.
Therefore, in view of the current complex factors in all aspects of Sino-Philippine relations, the mainland has not adopted a two-pronged approach to stop the Philippines, but if the mainland really uses these means, it is probably a big question mark whether the regime of Marx Jr. can continue to govern in the Philippines.
Resources:
"The Philippines' Claim to China's Scarborough Shoal, a Farce from Scratch", Global Times
"Philippine official: Philippines should not boycott commercial cooperation with China, must protect the economy at all costs" Global Times