According to the NDRC's plan, the mainland will build more than 19 urban agglomerations by 2025, and conservatively estimates that six of them will accommodate more than 50% of China's population in the future.
This makes one wonder that China has already achieved an urbanization rate of 65% as early as 2022.
Is it necessary to form an urban agglomeration with such a high proportion of cities and towns, so what is an urban agglomeration?
Compared with traditional cities, what are the reasons why urban agglomerations have to be formed?
1. Urban clusters, international trends
As the name suggests, an urban agglomeration is a cluster of many cities.
They are integrated with each other, help each other, and have greater stability than traditional cities.
It's like a family of three, if the roof collapses, the family will be wiped out.
And if thousands of families make up the country, it will be easier for one family to get through the hard times with the help of other families.
Urban agglomerations, specifically, are born out of the search for urban stability.
There are many examples of successful urban agglomerations in the world, the closest to us are the Pacific coast of Japan's Tokai Island, and a little further afield is the northwestern European agglomeration.
The United States has urban agglomerations along the eastern Atlantic coast, which have maintained their vitality since their formation.
Although urban agglomerations are the product of the city's pursuit of stability, they have also taken on a symbolic meaning beyond functionality when they have developed to the present.
One is a sign of national prosperity, and a prosperous country is equipped with urban agglomerations; The other is the trend of national development, and urban agglomerations are indispensable if they want to become developed countries.
China, a rising star dark horse, wants to stand on the top of the world's nations, stable development is the top priority, and the formation of China's urban agglomeration is very necessary.
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According to an article published by the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in February 2020, it is not difficult to find that the concept of "urban agglomeration" was first proposed in the mainland in the 80s of the last century.
Due to constraints, it took China a full 30 years to truly realize the urban agglomeration.
By 2012, China's Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration had successfully squeezed into one of the world's six largest urban agglomerations.
The success of the example of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration has shown countless Chinese that it is not without hope to form a Chinese urban agglomeration in batches.
As a result, in 2018, the State Council issued the Opinions on Establishing a More Effective Regional Coordinated Development.
It is clearly pointed out that 19 urban agglomerations in China will be established, including six major urban agglomerations: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Chengdu-Chongqing, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and the Central Plains.
According to the data of the seventh national census of the National Bureau of Statistics, the two major urban agglomerations of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the Yangtze River Delta alone have a population of nearly 400 million.
If Chengdu-Chongqing, the Greater Bay Area, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the Central Plains are added, the future six major urban agglomerations will be more than enough to accommodate 50% of the population.
Therefore, many believe that at least 50% of the Chinese population will gather in these six major urban agglomerations in the future.
Second, the benefits are numerous
Although urban agglomerations are a recognized international trend, China's situation is relatively special, with a large land and a large population.
The bottomless investment of the 19 urban agglomerations is bound to spark a lot of controversy.
Therefore, it is necessary to clarify in advance what are the benefits of urban agglomerations taking root in China.
In July 2023, the National Development and Reform Commission published an article on its official website titled "Focusing on Urban Agglomerations to Accelerate the Construction of a Unified Market".
It describes the three benefits of urban agglomeration in China, including enriching the content of administrative divisions, building a coordinated development pattern of large, medium and small cities, and radiating and driving the surrounding industrial chain.
In addition to these obvious benefits, the emergence of urban agglomerations can also improve the resilience of cities and avoid the old path of northern industrial cities.
The history of northern industrial cities has always been a painful lesson for Chinese.
In February this year, the official announcement of the city's GDP for 2023 showed that only six of the top 23 northern cities were shortlisted, including cities with a special status such as Beijing.
In other words, the northern cities have been taking the route of decline, and the old industrial cities in the north have been falling step by step, which is really embarrassing.
Of course, there are many reasons why they have fallen, but the main reason is that the industrial structure is too simple.
If the northern industrial cities had developed their own industrial chains such as light industry, manufacturing, and tourism in addition to industry, they would not have had the bleak scene they have today.
In addition, in addition to preventing the old path of northern industrial cities, urban agglomerations in China also play a more obvious role in helping cities relieve financial pressure.
The phrase that the first rich lead the latter to become rich has long been integrated into the bones of every Chinese.
In urban construction, the mainland also has a special policy of transfer payment, commonly known as the urban version of the first rich to drive the later rich.
That is, well-developed cities will use their surplus finances to help other poorly developed cities, so that the development gap between large, medium and small cities will not be too large.
However, under the influence of the siphon effect, the easier it is for a well-developed city to absorb excellent talents.
The more talents, the easier it is to give birth to profitable industries, and then have a greater attraction to talents, so that the cycle continues, and the rich cities will only get richer.
Cities that are not well developed are in a situation of the opposite, where industrial talents are already scarce, and a large number of talents flow into wealthy cities every year, and they will become poorer and poorer.
Therefore, under the pressure of reality, cities with poor economies will only become more financially dependent on cities with good economies.
As a result, the pressure on transfer payments for the former will also increase.
Once an urban agglomeration is established, many cities will be twisted together like hemp ropes, you have me, I have you.
Even if the huge urban development gap cannot be eliminated for a while, at least in the industrial chain, poor cities will not be left behind, and development is only a matter of time.
The above is just a discussion of the benefits of urban agglomerations from an economic point of view.
In fact, in terms of organization and management, human environment, etc., urban agglomerations can bring a lot of contributions, and it can be said that there are many benefits, and the list is endless.
Of course, if the establishment of urban agglomerations had only benefits and no disadvantages, there would not be a phenomenon in which only a few countries have urban agglomerations.
Therefore, after talking about the benefits of urban agglomerations, we have to talk about the possible hidden dangers of urban agglomerations.
Third, the risks are not small, and there are many difficulties
The NDRC has also discussed the risks involved in the formation of urban agglomerations, and in the aforementioned article on the benefits of urbanization, the NDRC also raised three risks.
Including the obvious shortcomings of the basic market system, the obstacles to the smooth flow of key elements, and the gap between the construction of international high standards.
If you are interested in the specific details, you can go to the official website of the NDRC to view, and what I want to talk about here are the risks and challenges that the NDRC did not mention in the article.
The risk of urban agglomeration is closely related to the formation of cities.
According to the thinker Spiro Kostov in his book The Making of the City, the city is not the result of irresistible material manipulation.
Rather, it was built by accident by many ordinary people, and in layman's terms, cities are formed mainly by chance.
Just like the urbanization of rural areas, if this part of the countryside itself is easily accessible and has industries such as fishing, textiles, and even agriculture, then it is more likely to evolve into cities than other rural areas.
As merchants continued to travel between the countryside and the city, more settlements were added to the countryside, and this was the prototype of the city.
If the rural areas themselves do not have the conditions for development, even if they are forcibly developed by administrative force, in the end they will only confirm the idiom -- pulling out the seedlings to help them grow.
The same is true for urban agglomerations, which are quite prosperous abroad, but don't make a mistake about cause and effect.
Because they have prosperous cities first, they have common needs to expand the industrial chain, so they will spontaneously form urban agglomerations.
And if there are urban agglomerations first, and then find a way to achieve prosperity, it is not that it is impossible.
It can only be said that there are no ready-made examples in the world, and we need to cross the river by feeling the stones, and the risks will rise.
Of course, where there is risk, there is opportunity, and the greater the risk, the greater the gain.
As long as China can find its own road to urban agglomeration with Chinese characteristics, it will not be a problem to overtake in corners and set an example for the world.
In addition, among the multi-risk problems of urban people, in fact, everyone is most concerned about money-related issues.
Nineteen urban agglomerations, such a huge project, the initial investment is certainly not a small amount.
Although we do not yet know the exact amount, it is certainly a challenge for the central government.
Therefore, if the urban agglomeration can be successfully formed according to the plan of the National Development and Reform Commission, it is possible to fully recover these investments in the future.
Even if it can be recovered, how long will it take? This is also a problem that has to be solved.
In addition to the problems mentioned above, there are bound to be many problems that people cannot anticipate in the process of forming urban agglomerations.
For ordinary people, they are just a matter for people to discuss, but for the NDRC and the whole of China, this is a challenge they have to face.
For now, it remains to be seen whether China will be able to overcome these challenges perfectly, and all the answers will not be revealed until the time comes.
epilogue
Overall, the benefits of urban agglomerations outweigh the disadvantages, not only in terms of improving China's international image, but also helping to reduce the wealth inequality of cities by keeping them alive and not falling behind in the years of development.
But at present, we are still a certain distance from the urban agglomeration of our dreams.
The risks are still very high, and there are still many difficulties, and as long as these difficulties can be solved, China has a lot to do.
Finally, believe in Chinese wisdom!
Resources:
Institute of Industrial Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, 2019 Review and Prospect of the Development of Urban Agglomerations in the 70 Years of New China
The Paper, March 15, 2022 "National Development and Reform Commission: Substantial Breakthroughs in the Urbanization of Wuhan, Changsha-Zhuzhou-Zhuzhou-Tan and Other Metropolitan Areas in 2025"
National Development and Reform Commission February 15, 2022 Notice of the National Development and Reform Commission on Printing and Distributing the Implementation Plan for the Development of Urban Agglomerations in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River during the 14th Five-Year Plan
Baidu Encyclopedia "City Agglomeration"
National Development and Reform Commission 2023.7.28 "Focus on Urban Agglomerations and Accelerate the Construction of a Unified Market"
Qiushi.com 2021.8.16 Statistical Chart of Economic and Social Development: Population of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Economic Belt, and Yangtze River Delta in the Seventh National Population Census
The Paper2020.7.29 "Passive Planning|Understanding the Logic of Urban Growth"