After the European Parliament elections, Macron's ruling Ba'ath Party suffered a crushing defeat to the far-right party "National Alliance". Because once the bet is lost, France will reappear in the situation of "left and right co-governance", and it is still two extremely opposing camps, Macron will not be able to move an inch in domestic reform affairs, and France will also fall into turmoil. Judging by the results of the first round of voting, this time Macron not only lost, but is likely to lose badly.
Macron
According to a report by the Observer on July 1, the results of the first round of voting were very close to the previous poll predictions, with the "National Alliance" leading the way with 34.2% of the votes, and Macron's camp coming in third with 21.5% of the votes, even behind the "New Popular Front" composed of the far left and the left. According to French election rules, no party received a majority of the vote in the first round, so it will move on to the second round of voting.
At present, it should not be difficult for the "National Alliance" to win a majority, which is already a victory for the far right, but it is still difficult to gain an absolute majority. Macron's response now is to call on the opposition to the far-right parties to remain united as much as possible and block the "national coalition" in the second round of voting. Left-wing leader Mélenchon has made it clear that if he comes third in the second round of voting and the "National Alliance" maintains the lead, he will withdraw his candidacy to avoid splitting the votes and allowing the far right to succeed.
Mei Langxiong
If the "National Alliance" wins the final victory, it will have a huge impact on French and European politics, and it is not an exaggeration for the French media to say that France is now standing at a crossroads in history. The National Alliance won a majority, even an absolute majority, and the elected Baldera will become the prime minister of France, and the rising political star is only 28 years old this year. Of course, age is not the focus, the focus is on domestic affairs, Macron will be greatly constrained, and domestic reforms will not be able to move forward.
In foreign and security affairs, although Macron is still the top decision-maker, he is bound to be held back by the far right, and France's domestic and foreign policy may fall into chaos. For some time to come, France will focus more on domestic political struggles. France is the most core member of the European Union, although far-right leader Marine Le Pen has made it clear that she will not leave the European Union. But before the far right comes to power, the process of European integration will be seriously affected.
Baldra
In fact, this change is not surprising. Over the years, Europe's rulers have overemphasized "political correctness" and lacked pragmatism. Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the epidemic and other factors, coupled with the existing immigration and other problems, the French people are becoming more and more dissatisfied with the current government, which gives the far right an opportunity to rise. In fact, not only France, but the whole of Europe is clearly turning to the right.
For China, the far-right's stance on China can actually be glimpsed from Le Pen's many statements during the 2022 French election. Overall, it is both an opportunity and a challenge. Le Pen is anti-EU, repulsive to NATO and the United States, and advocates rapprochement with Russia. When it comes to China, she doesn't have a friendly attitude, but he thinks the United States is too aggressive toward China and France should not follow suit. Therefore, if the "National Alliance" wins this parliamentary election or even Le Pen wins the next presidential election, Russian-European relations will be relaxed, but Sino-French relations may be adjusted.
Le Pen
However, the situation is stronger than people, and regardless of Le Pen's political stance, she needs to act in light of the actual situation in France at the moment. It is as if the German Green Party is full of prejudice against China, but German Vice Chancellor Habeck still wants to visit China to seek cooperation. In France, too, in international affairs and bilateral trade, China and France are cooperative relations, which is the result of the efforts of China and France in the past, and no political party in France can ignore the importance of cooperation with China.
As for the European Union, China has long been laid out in advance. In the past, in cooperation with the EU, China has placed more emphasis on direct communication with specific member states. On the one hand, it's more efficient. On the other hand, it will ensure the long-term stability of China-EU relations. When dealing with foreign affairs, the Chinese side will not pin its hopes on the other side. The current situation is that all countries need to take the initiative to maintain cooperation with China, and the United States is no exception.