Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made the decision not to participate in this year's SCO Heads of State Council, with Indian media saying the main reason is "conflict with the domestic agenda".
The SCO Heads of State Council is scheduled for July 3-4. Modi was absent because on July 2 and 4, he needed to go to the Lok Sabha and the Council of States to answer the debate on the presidential motion of thanks. In a trade-off, Modi decided that the internal agenda should be given a higher priority than the SCO summit.
India's downgrade to the SCO summit is also in stark contrast to Modi's previous high-profile attendance at the G7 summit, and the diplomatic calculations behind this are by no means simple.
(Modi gave a speech to supporters in the previous election)
Modi has just begun his third term as prime minister, and at this time, he has put the domestic agenda at the top of his list, apparently prioritizing the stabilization of the BJP's base and the pacification of the ruling coalition. It may not have been necessary in the past, but why should Modi's third term be taken seriously? It can only be said that the BJP did not perform as expected in the last "marathon election" and only narrowly won against the Congress Party.
Compared with previous years, the BJP won only 240 seats in the Lok Sabha in the recent Indian general election, far lower than the 282 seats in 2014 and 303 seats in 2019, and did not reach half of the total 543 seats in the Lok Sabha.
This is the first time since the BJP came to power that it has not won an absolute majority. So he had to form alliances with small and medium-sized parties to keep Modi re-elected. So it is not surprising that he sees the consolidation of the ruling coalition as his first priority.
In addition, India's long-standing negative attitude towards the SCO is also obvious. The absence of India's leader from the SCO summit may also be due to geopolitical considerations about China. Since the Modi government came to power, India's foreign policy has undergone great changes, especially its policy toward China.
As far as the SCO is concerned, India does not want to become too involved in a Chinese-led multilateral cooperation platform that would dilute its presence, which would run counter to the Modi government's "dream of becoming an Indian power".
(Whether it is the border or India's large-scale China policy, India is now "wary" of China)
India's current mentality toward China can be described in two words: "beware". In addition to the contradictions between China and India on the Line of Actual Control, India's great power strategy also regards China as a competitor, which is the result of India's accelerated negative perception of China in recent years.
After Modi came to power, India's China policy has undergone tremendous changes, from the previous pragmatism of "balance + engagement" to the extreme policy of "containing China, containing China", and even "confrontation". In recent years, India's provocations in the diplomatic, economic, trade, and military fields have become more and more obvious, resulting in rising strategic risks between China and India.
Not to mention the foreign policy of the Modi government, which also shows an acceleration of moving closer to the United States, opting for high-risk opportunism in the strategic competition between China and the United States.
It can be considered that at least during Modi's tenure as Prime Minister of India, India's foreign strategy of "moving closer to the United States and dealing with China" will not be easily changed, as can be seen from Modi's high-profile participation in the Western-led G7 summit but his negative attitude towards the SCO summit.
(India's foreign minister will replace Modi at the SCO summit)
For the upcoming SCO summit in Kazakhstan, the heads of state of the other eight member states, including China and Russia, will actively attend the summit. India is the only one who wants to be the exception to that out-of-fit, sending External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar to appear in place of Modi, making it clear that it is a de-escalation of participation.
Most importantly, if the SCO summit is to discuss major issues, Jaishankar, as foreign minister, may not be able to unilaterally take up ideas on many issues. Therefore, Modi's absence from the SCO summit has a great impact on India.
As for the arrangements on the Indian side, Kazakhstan, as the host, has already sent a request to Modi to attend virtually during the summit. After his re-election, Modi also spoke with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, when Modi said that he fully supported the success of the SCO summit, and now he is absent from the summit.
What will Kazakhstan and other SCO member states think about such "duplicity"? Is India deliberately "dragging its feet" on the SCO?
It is understood that the SCO summit plans to discuss the development plan for the next 10 years, as well as hot topics such as the situation in Afghanistan and the conflict in Ukraine, as well as important issues such as how to strengthen security cooperation among member states, which are of great importance to regional security and stability. Modi, as the head of the Indian government and the leader of the real power, did not participate in these discussions, but instead sent a foreign minister to be perfunctory, which will only have a negative impact on the subsequent multilateral coordination of the SCO.
(In previous SCO summits, Modi usually attended, but this absence is rare)
Combined with Modi's foreign visit itinerary since taking office, we can see more doorways. He first attended the G7 summit in a high-profile manner, which was warmly welcomed by Western countries, and then he will visit Russia to deepen India's "privileged partnership" with Russia, but he will find an excuse to be absent from the SCO summit.
It is hard not to suspect that India has mixed strong "selfishness" in its multilateral diplomacy and unilaterally brought the contradictions between China and India into multilateral cooperation under the SCO framework. But this would only backfire, would not improve India's geopolitical position, and could even accelerate its own isolation. Both China and Russia now attach great importance to cooperation within the framework of the SCO, and neither side will allow India to drag the SCO back.