Author丨Huai'an
Editor丨Tangerine
Thirty and stand, forty is not confused. Suntory, which has been in China for 40 years, is it "anxious" or "not confused"?
Suntory's "stability"
A few days ago, Suntory (China) Investment Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Suntory) held a press conference in Shanghai. He told the media and the industry a story of "Suntory's beverage business in China". This year marks the 40th anniversary of the 125-year-old company's entry into the Chinese market, and this is the first time that such a public appearance has been made.
Insiders do not speak outside the circle, and the scene inevitably emphasizes that its focus in China will be on building a sugar-free tea brand matrix, how important the Chinese market is, and so on. But if you look into it carefully, you haven't shared any specific data about the Chinese market, and what you can come up with is also a number that you need to make up or estimate by yourself.
"I've started the battle and talked about it, but I still don't understand it, and I still hold the pipa and half cover my face." In this regard, an industry insider commented.
For example, Suntory shared a set of data on the same day, and in 2023, Suntory Group's global sales will reach about 150 billion yuan. Excluding Japan, Asia and Oceania accounted for about 20% of total sales. In other words, the revenue of 30 billion yuan is contributed by the "Asian and Oceania market" except Japan, so how much does the Chinese market contribute?
Again, its official shared on the same day, "In 2020, the overall sales of food and non-alcoholic beverages in the Suntory Group in the Asian and Oceanian markets excluding Japan were about 260 billion yen; In 2023, this figure will reach 370 billion yen, or about 17 billion yuan; The three-year compound growth rate is more than 10%. The Chinese market has made an important contribution to this growth trend. ”
Strictly speaking, neither of these two sets of data is valid data, let alone a horizontal and vertical comparison of Suntory's sugar-free tea in the Chinese market. Of course, the Suntory Group is a family-owned company that is not publicly traded and has no "obligation" to disclose data.
I always feel that Suntory's "appearance" is extraordinary, after all, the senior management team is collectively present. As a result, Nei Sanjun asked the offline retail monitoring company to immediately win and help capture the data in a set of sugar-free ready-to-drink tea categories - the stores are working hard.
First of all, to explain, the definition of the average sales power of the store is in the sample stores, the average sales power of the store = the total sales of the brand / the number of stores on sale of the brand. The data time covers April 1 to June 23 in 2023/2024 (the consideration here is that April to June is the small peak season for ready-to-drink products, the real peak season is from July to September, and it is time to deal with the expiration date and inventory in October), however, June has not yet ended, and the data can only be caught from April to June 23 (the end of the third week of June 2024).
According to the data, compared with the same period last year, from April 1 to June 23, 2024, Suntory's "average store sales power" in the sugar-free ready-to-drink tea category decreased by 37.1%, while Oriental Leaves increased by 18.3% in the same period.
Not only that, Nei Sanjun in the north and south of the Greater China market each chose a down-line market, the performance of these two micro markets sugar-free tea is that the dealers in northern Hebei feedback, on the sugar-free tea category, Oriental leaves comprehensively crush similar competing products, salesmen basically do not mention the news of competing products. Southern, Hunan lower-tier cities, "In the first half of this year, each salesman sold 8,000 boxes, Suntory? The sales volume is much less than the Oriental leaves......"
Looking at the experience of people in the industry, whether it is a well-known beverage company or a manufacturer of a strong regional brand, the evaluation of Suntory is: "stable"; "They have fewer dealers and fewer business personnel......"; The market rate in high-tier cities is very high...... "Regardless of the outside world, regardless of whether the category is good or bad, whether the competition is fierce or not, Suntory only bows its head and does its own thing......"
In his opinion, Suntory's "popularity" in the sugar-free tea category today has its premise of diligence and deep cultivation, but it also has the "unexpected joy" brought about by the development and change of the Chinese market.
To sum up, it seems that Suntory should stand up and say, "We will continue to strengthen investment in the Chinese market" and "We are confident in the sustainable development of the Chinese market".
As one of the earliest companies to deploy sugar-free tea in the Chinese market, Suntory launched Suntory Oolong Tea in China in 1997, many years earlier than Nongfu Spring's Oriental Leaves.
Nei Sanjun has gone through several stages in the development of Suntory sugar-free tea in the Chinese market; market share; How to view the competitive landscape of sugar-free tea in the Chinese market, and whether the sugar-free tea category has cooled down this year; the development status and layout of Suntory's other brands; and whether Suntory will participate in a substantial "price war" in the sugar-free tea category, but has not received a reply as of press time.
The "roll" of sugar-free tea
Regarding the rolls of sugar-free tea, it seems to be a thing that everyone on earth knows. The latest company to be involved is Dayao, and on June 28, it officially announced the launch of its new sugar-free tea. Previously, those large factories and small factories will not repeat the "volume of one volume".
At the beginning of June, a special research report "In the early summer of 2024, sugar-free tea staged "Three Kingdoms Killing", in fact, at this stage, this category is about to catch up with the "Hundred Schools of Thought".
It can be seen that the row of sugar-free tea on the shelves is getting wider and wider, and there are more and more new flavors; What is invisible is the "sigh" of the front-line business and some dealers. New entrants outside of strong brands, or challengers who are familiar with Zhuruzi, without exception, are asked about a core point of view - "Alexander". There is also a cutting-edge brand that claims to achieve a sales target of 2 billion this year, which is simply not too much.
There are many entrants, and new products are promoted and given away after they are put on the shelves; CVS channel "requires" buy one get one free, one yuan exchange, etc., whether passive or active, competing products are out, do you, do you follow?
Many people in the industry do not think that the price drop brought by this kind of promotional activities or channel activities is a price war. After all, "if the manufacturer's price has not changed, it is not a price war," said the dealer of Nongfu Spring.
In high-tier cities, CVS and even small stores bought and delivered, trade-in, and three bottles for 10 yuan, etc., and the head brands Oriental Leaf and Suntory were all swept away. Even, in the offline market in northern Hebei, Oriental leaves are also 10 yuan for three bottles, and some industry insiders have feedback, "Farmers' goal this year is to double compared with last year, even in small areas such as Tangshan." ”
Let's just say, the head brands are all so rolled, can they fall behind? It's just that who pulls who goes down to the pit may not be clear for a long time. Those who are in it are busy selling goods and delivering goods. Those who stand outside the circle can also watch coldly.
Although some people in the industry think it is normal, they are particularly emotional. A rather vivid evaluation is - "Originally, there were still a few seedlings growing under the forest, but this roll has rolled up all the seedlings." Individual companies can take advantage of the chaos to make some money, and more are ...... loss"
"Whether it's a price war or a very volatile volume, these are normal things in the fast-moving consumer goods industry where there is no shortage of changes. Once every few years, last time, sparkling water, coconut water; Further on, cocktails; The point is, whether you are actively involved in it, or the companies that are coerced into the game, can you have a clear strategic positioning in this melee? That is, no matter how to promote, how to move, in some of the established strategies of the enterprise and the company, will not be led astray by this price war or melee, and can go along their own established route, which is the most important. An industry observer said to the internal staff.
In his opinion, this sugar-free tea scuffle, from another level, will quickly squeeze out the bubble in this category, and wait until October, when the peak season is over, and when you need to deal with inventory and futures, see how many more can smile.
"If it's fast, by next year, there may be a lot fewer sugar-free tea brands you can see." Another person in the industry said to Nei Sanjun.
He believes that sugar-free tea is a small category after all, and everyone saw that last year's sugar-free tea exploded and followed up, but no one reflected on how many years Suntory and Nongfu Spring have been arranged. What's more, health drinks are not "popular" enough after all, which means the size of the market share, and it also means real money.
Turning our attention back to Suntory, a company that has been low-key in China for 40 years and still does not plan to build a factory in China, how to focus on its layout? In the peak season last year, Suntory's sugar-free tea was out of stock for a while, and "there was no rush to production", will this kind of pomp and circumstance happen again in the next three months?
Those large factories and small factories with their own beautiful "small goals", and when it is over in September, we will have another plate.