The SCO summit in Kazakhstan will soon be held, and the top leaders of the SCO countries have already confirmed their personal participation. But now, there is news from the Indian side that Indian Prime Minister Modi will be absent from the SCO summit for some reason, and Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar will attend on his behalf. At present, the Kazakh side has proposed that Modi should participate in the summit at least by video link.
Although this has not been confirmed by the SCO, it has already been disclosed by the Indian media, so it is very likely to be true. Outside analysts pointed out that Modi's absence from the SCO summit is likely to be related to India's reluctance to have too many contacts with China and Russia, two important members of the SCO.
Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India has gained a lot of benefits by acting as an energy "intermediary" between Russia and Europe, but Russia and India, which have interacted frequently in the past, have seen a lot less diplomatic exchanges. For example, Putin and Modi have hardly seen each other in the past two years, and now at the SCO summit, Modi may be absent when Putin has confirmed that he will attend the meeting, which is likely to show that Modi is not willing to meet with Putin right away. It is very likely that the reason why India has such an attitude is to show goodwill to the United States and the West by "keeping a distance" from Russia and even Putin himself.
In fact, there have been some changes in Sino-Indian relations during this period, mainly due to India's frequent deliberate provocations on the Sino-Indian border, which has triggered tensions on the Sino-Indian border. Although the Chinese side has repeatedly stated that the border is not the whole of China-India relations and that China and India should work together for common development, the Indian side has not only frequently provoked on the border, but also sent wrong signals on Taiwan-related matters. Therefore, in this case, Modi does not seem to have the idea of meeting with the Chinese side.
In fact, if Modi does not miss the SCO summit, it will be a sign that India is making a statement between East and West. You know, not long ago, Modi went to Italy to participate in the Western-led G7 summit, and now Modi wants to be absent from the SCO summit for an excuse, which is obviously a bit of a "favoritism". While India deliberately keeps its distance from the SCO, it is likely that it is actively moving closer to the West in order to show goodwill to the United States and the West.
Because we all know that although the SCO has always been a regional cooperation organization focusing on economic cooperation and trade cooperation, the United States and the West have always regarded the SCO as "colored glasses" and openly and covertly believe that the SCO is "competing" with the United States and the West. Moreover, China and Russia are the main members of the SCO, and under the premise that the United States is now openly attacking Russia and vainly trying to contain China's development, it is understandable that the United States and the West are wary of the SCO. Therefore, in this case, India's choice to treat the SCO activities coldly is to show its attitude to the United States and the West, which is consistent with the reason why Modi and Putin have reduced their "interaction".
The SCO is now a thriving regional organization with nine member states, three observer states, and 14 dialogue partners, as well as a large number of countries wishing to join the SCO (one of the topics of the SCO summit is said to be the possibility of including Belarus as a full member). Therefore, even if India treats it negatively, the overall development of the SCO will not be affected. On the contrary, in the context of the growing influence of the SCO, many Central and South Asian affairs will be discussed within the framework of the SCO, and if Modi is absent, India will be "left behind" in these discussions, and in this sense, India is actually narrowing its own path.