The Nasdaq closed at a new high, Tesla rose more than 6%, Nvidia fell 3.8% and then turned up, U.S. bonds fell again, and oil prices rose 2%

Wall Street Sights

2024-07-02 05:12Wall Street News Official Account

The ISM manufacturing index in the United States in June fell short of expectations and contracted for three consecutive months, the employment index also contracted, and the price indicator fell by the most in more than a year, which once pulled down the US Treasury yield and the dollar in the short term. U.S. construction spending fell in May instead of rising, and it was less than expected.

Traders are betting that the probability of a Fed rate cut in September remains high at 64% for several days, up from 55% a month ago, and two rate cuts this year remain the mainstream expectation. Keep an eye on Fed Chair Powell's speech on Tuesday and Friday's June nonfarm payrolls data.

Inflation in Europe is also declining, with the top two economies, Germany and France, both showing a preliminary year-on-year preliminary value of 2.5% year-on-year in June, both of which are lower than the previous value. The head of the Central Bank of Lithuania said in a dovish statement that the ECB may also cut interest rates twice in 2024 if the data is in line with expectations.

According to CCTV News, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Trump is not entitled to immunity from prosecution for private actions, but can obtain immunity from criminal prosecution for some actions taken towards the end of his presidency, almost ensuring that he will not be tried before the presidential election in November, pushing up the dollar and long-term U.S. Treasury yields, Wall Street suggested a layout for the prospects of Trump's election.

Thursday is the Independence Day holiday in the United States, and the U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed for the day. European stocks rose as much as expected in the far-right primary, with French stocks rising as much as 2.5% intraday, and the 10-year German bond yield rose about 11 basis points as safe-haven demand cooled.

The Dow closed up in late trading, the Nasdaq closed at a new high, Tesla rose more than 6% to lead the "Seven Sisters of Technology Stocks", and Nvidia also rose

On Monday, July 1, the curtain of trading in the second half of the United States officially opened, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively opened slightly higher and then turned down at the beginning of the session, the S&P 500 index and the Dow followed the Nasdaq at noon, and the Nasdaq, which is dominated by technology stocks, rose relatively first, but small-cap stocks fell nearly 1%.

As of the close, the S&P market re-pushed a one-week high, the Nasdaq hit a new closing high, the two major indexes hit an all-time high in Europe on Friday but then turned down, the Dow Jones was the highest in a week, and Russell small-cap stocks stopped a two-day winning streak and came out of a more than two-week high:

The S&P 500 closed up 14.61 points, or 0.27%, at 5,475.09. The Dow closed up 50.66 points, or 0.13%, at 39,169.52. The Nasdaq closed up 146.70 points, or 0.83%, at 17,879.30.

The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7% to close to a new high, while the Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of the Nasdaq 100 technology constituents, rose about 1% to a two-week high. Russell 2000 small-cap stocks fell 0.9%, and the "fear index" VIX fell 1.8% to 12.22.

Only the small-cap index of the U.S. stock index closed lower, and the Nasdaq closed at a record high

Most of the 11 S&P sectors closed lower, but the technology sector closed up 1.3%, consumer discretionary rose more than 0.7%, financials rose more than 0.2%, and telecommunications and energy rose as much as 0.1%. Raw materials fell more than 1.5%, and the real estate and industrial sectors fell about 1%.

Star tech stocks rose. "Metaverse" Meta rose slightly after falling more than 2%, Netflix was close to recovering a 1.6% decline, Amazon rose 2% to approach the highest in history, with a market value of $2.10 trillion, and Google A turned up 0.5% to regain the highest; Apple rose nearly 3% to the highest closing point in history, with a market capitalization of $3.38 trillion, ranking second among U.S. stocks, while Microsoft rose more than 2% to a record high, with a market capitalization of $3.44 trillion, making it the largest U.S. stock market. Tesla rose more than 6% to hit a more than five-month high, rising above the key technical level of the 200-day moving average for the first time since January.

Chip stocks pulled back, but the decline narrowed significantly after midday. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index edged up after falling 1.8%, hovering at a new one-week high, and the industry ETF SOXX fell slightly. Nvidia rose 0.6% after falling 3.8%, stopping a two-day losing streak and still hovering at a one-week low, with a market capitalization of $3.07 trillion ranking third in U.S. stocks, and Nvidia's double-long ETF rose 1% after falling 7.6%; Broadcom rose more than 2% to the highest in more than a week, Qualcomm rose 0.4%, ARM closed down nearly 3% after falling 6.8%, TSMC U.S. stocks closed down 0.9% after falling nearly 2%, Applied Materials fell more than 1% and then rose 0.6%, Micron Technology was close to recovering 3.2% of the decline, Intel fell 0.4% out of a one-week high, and AMD fell 2.8% to approach a two-week low.

Tesla rose more than 6% to lead the seven sisters of technology, and Nvidia closed up after falling 3.8%.

AI concept stocks rose more and fell less again. CrowdStrike rose more than 2% to hit a record high, Oracle rose 1.3% to approach a new high, SoundHound.ai and C3.ai fell more than 1%, BigBear.ai fell more than 3%, Snowflake rose 5.7% to further off the 17-month low, Palantir rose more than 2%, Adobe rose 0.8%, Dell rose 3.6%, Supermicro Computer closed down nearly 1% after falling more than 5%, and IBM rose more than 1%.

On the news, the French antitrust regulator is preparing to sue Nvidia for anti-competitive practices. The European Union will accuse Meta Platforms of violating digital rules, after a similar lawsuit was filed against Apple a week ago. ASML's U.S. stocks rose nearly 2% before trading, TSMC raised capital expenditures more than expected, and ASML lithography machines may earn.

The Chinese concept stock index chased the broader U.S. stock market. The China Internet Index ETF (KWEB) narrowed its gains to 0.3%, the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) rose 1.6% before closing up 0.8%, forcing 5,800 points to break the lowest in nearly five months.

Among the popular stocks, JD.com and Baidu both rose by about 1.4% and then fell by more than 0.2%, and Pinduoduo fell by more than 2% and then turned up. Alibaba closed up 0.3% after rising 1.4%, Tencent ADR closed up 0.2% after rising 1%, Station B rose nearly 3% and then fell about 1%, Weilai and Li Auto rose 6.7%, Xiaopeng Motors rose 5.2%, Zeekr closed down more than 3% after falling 10%, Li Auto delivered more than 40,000 vehicles in June, returning to the sales crown of new forces, and Weilai and Zeekr both delivered more than 20,000 in a single month, both hitting a record high.

Retail investors huddle stocks move again:

Pet supplies e-commerce company Chewy opened 10% higher and then fell 6.6%, and "retail investors take the lead Big Brother Roaring Kitten" disclosed that it had invested 9 million shares, accounting for 6.6% of the shares to become the third largest shareholder, with a shareholding value of more than $245 million.

But he was confronted with a new class action lawsuit alleging that he used his online influence to manipulate the game's stock price in May and June, alleging securities fraud. GME, the leading retail stock, closed down 5.5% after falling more than 9%, erasing all gains since June.

France's far-right primaries were less than expected, and European stocks rose. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed up 0.31%, halting a four-day losing streak and off a two-week low. Italian stocks rose 1.7% to lead major national indexes, the banking index rose more than 3.8%, and French stocks jumped 2.5% before closing up 1%.

According to some analysts, the first round of voting in the French parliamentary election on Sunday showed that the far-right party coalition led the vote in the election, but did not reach an absolute majority, and the suspension of the parliament may be the final result, and the country's tax and immigration policies may maintain the status quo, which is also the most popular in the market.

Earlier, economists at Citigroup and other institutions warned that given the tax and spending plans of a coalition of far-right or left-wing parties, a resounding victory in the election could trigger a severe market shock and could turn into a debt crisis.

Long-term bond yields in Europe and the United States both jumped in double digits, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rising 15 basis points to a one-month high

Wall Street is proposing to lay out the prospect of stubbornly high inflation and Donald Trump being elected president this year, and US Treasury yields have resumed their rally and expanded, and long-term bond yields have jumped by double digits, with the increase significantly larger.

The yield on the two-year Treasury note, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, rose by more than 7 basis points and pushed up 4.80% to a three-week high. The yield on the 10-year bond rose as much as 15 basis points to 4.49%, and the yield on the 30-year bond also rose nearly 15 basis points to 4.65%, both to the highest in a month since May 31.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose 15 basis points to a new one-month high

Some major investment banks believe that rising long-term Treasury yields and a steepening of the yield curve are inevitable. Morgan Stanley said Trump's rising approval ratings in the polls mean investors must consider economic policies that could lead to further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as well as fiscal expansion following a Republican victory. Barrona also said that the best response to the prospect of Trump's victory is to hedge against inflation.

Wall Street is proposing to trade the possibility of Donald Trump being elected president, and the U.S. Treasury yield curve is steepening

The yield on the 10-year German bond on the eurozone benchmark rose about 11 basis points in late trading to break above 2.6% for the first time since June 12, rebounding about 26 basis points from the bottom on June 14. The yield on the 10-year bond rose 5 basis points to a seven-month high, and the spread with German bond yields narrowed after hitting a 12-year high on Friday.

With the UK general election just around the corner, medium- and long-term Treasury yields rose by 11 basis points, and the 2/10-year Treasury yield spread turned positive for the first time in 13 months. Some analysts said that there was little suspense that the main opposition Labour Party would come to power, and the news was digested and welcomed by the market.

Oil prices rose about 2% to a two-month high, with U.S. oil rising more than $2 intraday and U.S. natural gas falling 5% to a one-month low

Oil prices refreshed their two-month highs since late April. WTI crude oil futures for August delivery closed up $1.84, or nearly 2.26%, at $83.38 a barrel. Brent September futures closed up $1.60, or more than 1.88%, at $86.60 a barrel.

U.S. oil WTI rose as high as $2.08 or 2.6% intraday, rising above $82 and $83 in succession, the highest in more than two months since April 26. International Brent rose as high as $1.87 or 2.2%, rising above $86 and hitting a two-month high.

Oil prices rose about 2% to a two-month high

At present, both oil prices have risen for three consecutive weeks, with U.S. oil rising 6.3% in June and 13.7% in the first half of the year, and Brent oil rising 4.8% in June and more than 12% in the first half of the year, mainly due to concerns about the further expansion of the conflict in the Middle East and the expected higher demand for fuel in the summer. TD Securities noted that speculators in the oil market increased their long positions, betting that oil prices would continue to rise as tensions between Israel and Lebanon escalated.

TTF Dutch natural gas futures for the European benchmark fell nearly 3% to a three-week low, while ICE UK futures fell nearly 4% at the end of trade. The U.S. natural gas August contract fell 5% and fell to a one-month low of $2.50, turning lower for the year. U.S. gasoline futures are still up 20% this year.

The dollar turned lower after updating its daily high, with the euro rising 0.6% to a two-week high and the yen falling to 161.74, its lowest since 1986

DXY, a basket of U.S. dollar indexes against six major currencies, rose 0.1% at midday and pushed above the 106 mark, before giving up gains and turning lower in late trading, hitting an eight-week high since May 1 last week and rising for four consecutive weeks, rising more than 3% in the first half of the year.

As the dollar refreshed its daily high, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in favor of Trump's presidential campaign. JPMorgan Chase & Co. said the dollar should remain elevated in the second half of the year, given higher US Treasury yields, economic growth and the risk of the November election. The Fed's moderate monetary policy easing is not enough to cause a "significant weakening of the dollar", and a pick-up in economic growth outside the US will weigh on the dollar significantly.

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled in favor of Trump's campaign, and the U.S. dollar refreshed its daily highs

EUR/USD rose as high as 0.6% to its highest in more than two weeks, holding above 1.07 throughout the day, further off the lowest intraday since May 1, which fell last week, but fell more than 1% in June, the biggest drop since January, dragged down by political turmoil in France's snap parliamentary elections.

However, some analysts warn that the results of last Sunday's first round of elections do not determine the final composition of the French parliament, and that this Sunday's second round of voting is the biggest risk event, and the possibility of a far-right coalition winning a majority remains, or limiting the euro's rally in the coming days.

The pound rose 0.6 against the dollar at the beginning of the session and briefly rose above the 1.27 mark, and U.S. stocks turned lower after midday, hitting a six-week low since mid-May last week. The offshore renminbi fell 100 points against the dollar to trade at 7.3050 yuan, hovering at a seven-month low and falling 1.8% in the first half of the year.

The yen fell as much as 0.6% against the dollar to 161.74, the lowest in nearly 38 years since the end of 1986, and the European stock market once rose above the 161 mark during the European stock session, and the Japanese economy shrank more than the preliminary value in the first quarter, increasing the uncertainty of the Bank of Japan's next interest rate move.

Mainstream cryptocurrencies rallied en masse. Bitcoin, the largest leader by market capitalization, rose 5% and rose above $62,000 over the weekend, and rose another 1.6% to $63,000 on Monday, reaching its highest level in more than a week. Last Monday, it fell below the psychological round figure of $60,000 for the first time since May 3, and once fell below $59,000, the lowest since May 1. Ethereum, the second-largest Ethereum, also rose nearly 2% and pushed $3,500.

Bitcoin fell 10% in the second quarter, the worst month since April and the second in three months, and last week had the second-largest weekly decline of the year, but historical data shows that Bitcoin is generally strong in July, but some analysts are worried about the collapse of Japanese trader Mt. Mt. Gox is on the verge of repaying $9 billion worth of Bitcoin to thousands of users, potentially triggering a sell-off.

Bitcoin rose above $63,000

After a sharp rally in the first half of the year, spot gold rose narrowed and hovered at $2,330, while London copper fell 0.3% but fell off a two-month low

Waiting for U.S. jobs data, the U.S. dollar moved lower, but COMEX gold futures for August delivery turned as much as 0.1% to $2,338.30 an ounce, and COMEX silver futures for July delivery rose as much as 0.1% to $29.575 an ounce.

Spot gold rose 0.5% or nearly $12 in the premarket of U.S. stocks, again pushing up to $2,340, and U.S. stocks erased most of their gains to $2,330 in late trading, after falling below $2,300 to a three-week low last Wednesday. Spot silver halved its gains after rising more than 1%, standing above $29, off the low since mid-May set last week. Gold and silver rose nearly 14% and nearly 26% respectively in the first half of the year.

Some analysts said that the lower dollar prompted some precious metals investors to cover their shorts, while traders in the spot market were buying the dip, and the focus turned to the US employment data due later this week, which could provide more clues about the timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts.

After a sharp rise in the first half of the year, spot gold rose narrowed and hovered at $2,330

U.S. Treasury yields moved higher and lower prices of industrial base metals in London. The economic bellwether "Dr. Copper" closed down $31, or 0.3%, but rose above the $9,600 integer level, off a ten-week low since mid-April. London aluminum fell slightly, standing above $2,500 and off a two-month low. London zinc and London lead both fell slightly, London nickel rose 0.4% to further break away from the lowest since early April, and London tin rose 0.5%.

Among agricultural futures, ICE white sugar futures fell more than 2.4%, and New York cocoa fell about 5.3% to the psychological integer level of $7,000 per ton. Chicago wheat futures rose more than 2.7%, and soybeans fell below $11 for the first time in nearly three years, down more than 9% recently.

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