2nm demand is strong, and TSMC's capital expenditure next year may reach $36 billion

Xinzhixun

2024-07-01 13:36The official account of Xinzhixun

On July 1, according to Taiwanese media "Economic Daily", recent industry rumors have shown that TSMC is expected to increase its capital expenditure in 2025 by 12.5% to 14.3% year-on-year to $32 billion to $36 billion due to continuous increase in the research and development of cutting-edge processes such as 2nm and expansion of production capacity, reaching the second highest in history.

Rumors point out that the demand of TSMC's 2nm customer base is stronger than expected, and the relevant expansion capacity plan is also rumored to be introduced into the Nanke plant to make room for process upgrades. In addition to Apple, which previously took the lead in contracting the first batch of TSMC's 2nm production capacity, other customers are also actively planning to adopt AI due to its vigorous development.

In this regard, TSMC's 2nm production capacity construction is estimated to be further expanded, Zhuke Baoshan can cover the fourth phase, Kaohsiung Phase II, in addition to the relevant planning of the Nanke plant, if it comes true, it is estimated that it will help TSMC's 2nm family sprint to at least eight phases of eight factories production capacity.

TSMC continues to promote the goal of mass production of 2nm in 2025, in addition, the 2nm Baoshan first plant will enter the factory in April 2024, and the follow-up Baoshan second plant will also maintain the progress, and the Kaohsiung plant plans to expand 2nm production, and it is expected that related equipment will enter the factory in the third quarter of 2025 at the earliest, and if the Nanke plant also joins the production of 2nm, it will continue to expand mass production from the end of 2025 to 2026.

Against this backdrop, TSMC is likely to further increase capital spending in 2025. Market rumors point out that semiconductor equipment manufacturers such as ASML and Applied Materials will be the winners of TSMC's capital expenditure growth, and related co-factories are also expected to grow simultaneously.

TSMC said it would not comment on market rumors, reiterating that the capital expenditure and 2nm progress were mainly based on the content of the legal conference in April this year.

TSMC emphasized at the previous April conference that capital expenditure and capacity planning are based on long-term structural market demand. Capital expenditures in 2024 are expected to be between $28 billion and $32 billion. 2nm is expected to enter mass production in 2025 as scheduled, and the mass production curve is expected to be similar to that of 3nm.

TSMC Chairman Wei Zhejia pointed out in response to media questions after this year's shareholders' meeting that the three-year investment plan of 100 billion US dollars for TSMC was truly achieved last year, and the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has made TSMC have a bright future.

Editor: Xinzhixun-Lin Zi

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