Editor: Liu Koushui shared things
As the saying goes, "pig food is safe in the world", and the fluctuation of pork prices always affects the hearts of hundreds of millions of families.
In June 2024, the domestic pig market staged a "tail-lifting" drama, and pig prices suddenly bottomed out after a period of downturn, bringing a touch of warmth to the market. But behind this, there is the bitterness of farmers and the complex emotions of the market. Every beating of the pig price is like plucking the strings of the market, playing a melody of joy or sorrow. So, is this wave of pig price rise a natural adjustment of the market, or is there another mystery?
The rise in pig prices is first due to the persistence of farmers and the self-regulation of the market. During the period of falling pig prices, farmers' profits shrank significantly, but many did not give up because of this, but chose to stick to it. They know that the cold winter of the market will always pass, and spring will come. With the improvement of the enthusiasm of the tour capital and the second breeding, the supply of suitable weight pigs in the market began to decrease, and the procurement difficulty of slaughtering enterprises also increased. This subtle change in the relationship between supply and demand has provided strong support for the rise in pig prices.
On July 1, pig prices ushered in a "good start", and the average price of live pigs in the north and south regions broke through the 18 yuan/kg mark, and the market showed a prosperous scene. However, behind this prosperity, there are many hidden dangers. The arrival of the rainy season has brought great challenges to the prevention and control of diseases in pig farms. The environment of high temperature and humidity is very easy to induce epidemics and affect the price mentality of the breeding end. In addition, the demand of the pork consumption market has not improved substantially, the hot weather has put pressure on the demand for pork, the purchase and sales of the downstream market appear cold, the goods of white meat are not smooth, and the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises is low, and the losses are serious.
In such a market environment, farmers and slaughterhouses are facing tremendous pressure. On the one hand, farmers are worried about the risk of epidemic diseases and are eager to slaughter medium and large pigs with appropriate weight to reduce losses; On the other hand, due to the lack of orders, slaughtering companies have resisted the high-priced pigs. This delicate equilibrium in the market seems to be about to be upset at any moment.
This is also confirmed by the performance of the overnight market. Although the procurement difficulty of slaughtering enterprises has been reduced, the ex-factory quotation of white meat has shown signs of stability and weakness. The quotations of Shandong Huabao and Henan Muyuan both show the uncertainty of the market. With the decline of the enthusiasm of the second breeding, the rhythm of pigs in the slaughtering enterprises in the north and south has improved, and the pressure of lack of pigs has been alleviated to a certain extent.
In such a market background, it is expected that the pig price on July 2, 2024 may have an "overnight abrupt change", the price is booming and declining, and the quotations of large factories in the north and south regions may show a narrow and weak trend. Market volatility seems inevitable.
The fluctuation of pig prices is like a war without gunpowder, and farmers, slaughtering companies, consumers, and every market participant plays a different role in it. Every rise and fall of the market is a test of the wisdom and courage of the participants. Although the market demand is not good in the short term, and there is a sentiment at the breeding end, we should also see that the domestic pig production capacity is gradually reducing the supply pressure of standard pigs. It is expected that the market in July will be dominated by both supply and demand, and prices will show a trend of ups and downs.
In this market game, we need not only keen insight, but also a cool head and firm belief. As the ancients said: "If you lose your horse, you will not know whether it is a blessing", every fluctuation in the market may be the beginning of a turnaround. Let's wait and see how pig prices deduce their own wonderful chapters in the tide of the market.
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