In the week of June 24, the London gold price opened at $2,321.1 per ounce, reached a high of $2,339.8 per ounce, had a low of $2,293.6 per ounce, and closed at $2,326.6 per ounce. According to a survey by the Beijing Gold Economic Development Research Center, market participants believe that international gold prices may be guided out of the shock range this week. According to the poll, 51% of readers are bullish on gold prices this week, 26% are bullish on volatility, and 23% are bearish.
Wu Di, an independent analyst, has a long-short watershed of $2,320 this week
On the fundamental front, the market began to speculate about the possibility of Trump winning the US presidential election, and the pressure on the Democratic Party to replace him has increased sharply, bringing uncertainty to the market. Fed officials will speak this week, the Fed will also release the minutes of its meeting, and the US market will reopen on July 5 with the non-farm payrolls report on July 4 due to the Independence Day holiday. Against the backdrop of a further deceleration in inflation, more evidence of a weaker job market could pave the way for the start of a rate-cutting cycle in September.
This week's long-short watershed of $2,320 / ounce, currently hovering near the watershed, also shows that the current market direction is still unclear, pay close attention to the competition for the long-short watershed. On the upside, pay attention to the first resistance of the week near $2,347 / ounce, if the international gold price effectively breaks through this position, the resistance will be adjusted to near $2,368 / ounce. On the downside, focus on the first support of the week near $2,300 per ounce, and if it effectively falls below this level, the support will be adjusted to around $2,273 per ounce.
Li Yuefeng is a researcher at Beijing Gold Economic Development Research Center
Gold prices may be out of the shock range
Fed officials expect a 25 basis point rate cut this year, according to the latest dot plot for June, with many market participants believing the Fed will start a rate cut cycle in September. According to the Fed, to see evidence of declining inflation over several months, the fall in single-month inflation data is not enough for the Fed to start a rate cut cycle. In addition, after the debate between Biden and Trump, the market began to price in the possibility of Trump winning the US presidential election, which also put pressure on US stocks and US bonds.
Technically, the international gold price still has signs of continuing to decline, with the upper resistance level of $2335 ~ $2350 / ounce area, and the strong resistance at $2370 ~ $2390 / ounce area. The support level is $2310~$2300 / ounce area, if it breaks, it may test the $2275 ~ $2250 / ounce area.
Hong Jie, a registered senior gold investment analyst, may maintain short-term volatility in the international gold price
Judging from the news, this week focuses on the U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate in June, the market expectation is not high, the probability of the dollar is large, and there may be some pressure on international gold prices in the short term.
From a technical point of view, the international gold price still maintains a volatile trend in the short term, and there is still a need for further correction after the rise. Focus on the impact of the international situation, the lower support of $2280 ~ $2250 / ounce area, below the breakout of the support, the short-term is expected to usher in a new round of decline, the upper focus on the $2380 ~ $2410 / ounce area pressure.
Zhou Zhicheng, a precious metals researcher at Guantong Futures, expects international gold prices to fluctuate and rebound this week
The U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for May slowed to 0% m/m in May on June 28 from 0.3% in April, the lowest since November 2023 and in line with market expectations. The year-on-year growth of the core PCE price index in May hit the lowest level since March 2021, falling to 2.6% from 2.8% in April, also in line with expectations. International gold and silver prices fell after opening with a gap for two consecutive days, indicating that the data did not support a smooth rebound in international gold and silver prices in the second half of the year.
Technically, the upper resistance of the international gold price is at 2370 US dollars / ounce, 2400 US dollars / ounce, 2450 US dollars / ounce, and the lower support is at 2300 US dollars / ounce, 2270 US dollars / ounce and 2017 US dollars / ounce. This week, the international gold price is expected to fluctuate between 2310 US dollars ~ 2390 US dollars / ounce, as the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will make a speech this week, and at the same time usher in the June non-farm and unemployment data, the international gold price is likely to fluctuate unexpectedly. This week, the international silver price is expected to fluctuate more in the range of 28.7 US dollars ~ 30.9 US dollars / ounce.
Liu Shikai recruited gold refining
Gold prices may continue to fluctuate and wait for information guidance
The results of the first candidate TV debate in the 2024 presidential election in the United States showed that 67% of viewers believed that Trump won the debate, which increased the uncertainty of the election outcome and also raised the risk sentiment in the market. Fierce competition between the two parties and uncertainty over the outcome of the election are expected to provide support for international gold prices.
On the whole, the current fundamentals show a situation of intertwining long and short, lack of clear directional guidance, and market funds tend to be cautious. Technical analysis shows that the short-term moving average sticks flat, the fast and slow short-term lines of the similarity and difference moving average stick near the zero axis, and the green kinetic energy column shrinks to near the zero axis, indicating that the international gold price may continue to fluctuate in a wide range of high levels in the short term, and the operating range refers to 2380 US dollars ~ 2280 US dollars / ounce.
This week, the market will focus on the release of the US non-farm payrolls data for June. As one of the important bases for the Fed to assess the economic situation and determine the direction of monetary policy, the quality of the non-farm payrolls data will have a direct impact on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. The market expects the June non-farm payrolls data to decline from May, and the unemployment rate to remain at 4%. The release of this data will undoubtedly bring new volatility to the international gold price, and investors need to pay close attention to its changes to see if it can break through the current wide range.
(The above content does not constitute investment advice or operation guide, it is the author's own point of view, and does not represent the position of this platform)
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