High-dividend concept stocks, the rise is amazing!
On July 1, a lot of funds poured into dividend assets, and high-interest concept stocks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank, CNOOC, China Shenhua, and Shaanxi Coal Industry hit record highs. Driven by the above-mentioned stocks, the Shanghai Composite Index rose nearly 1% on the day, approaching the 3,000-point mark. Since the beginning of the year, CNOOC has risen by more than 62%, China Shenhua has risen by more than 40%, Agricultural Bank of China has risen by nearly 30%, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has risen by more than 20%, and China Construction Bank has risen by more than 16%.
On the same day, the real estate sector, which had been adjusted for nearly one month, also rose by nearly 5%, and many real estate stocks such as Binjiang Group, Urban Construction Development, and Zhongzhou Holdings rose by more than 5%, and Vanke A also rose by more than 5%.
Why are dividend assets and property stocks strengthening at the same time today?
Dividend assets soared
On July 1, the three major A-share indexes diverged, and dividend assets strengthened again, as of the close, the Wind Dividend Index and the CSI Dividend Index both rose by more than 2%, significantly outperforming the broader market index.
More than 20 stocks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of Communications, China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, CNOOC, Guodian Electric Power and Yangtze River Electric Power hit a record high in the intraday. As of today's close, the coal sector as a whole rose by more than 3%, and the oil and banking sectors both rose by more than 1%. Among them, Shaanxi Coal Industry rose more than 4%, CNOOC rose more than 3%, China Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China rose more than 2%, and Agricultural Bank of China rose 1.83%.
Guosheng Securities analysts Lin Zhipeng, Ma Tingting and others pointed out in the research report that the banking sector has a strong correlation with economic expectations, and since mid-May, real estate support policies have been implemented, and the demand side and supply side are multi-pronged.
Wu Kaida, chief analyst of strategy at Tianfeng Securities Research Institute, said that he is optimistic that the follow-up high dividend style will continue to be deduced, and a new round of diffusion within the dividend sector. Wu Kaida pointed out that the new "National Nine Articles" mention "market value management" and "improve the return on investment in the secondary market", and under the resonance of policy logic and market logic, high-dividend assets with monopoly and scarcity are expected to obtain value revaluation.
Guosen Securities analysts Chen Kaichang and Wang Kai pointed out that from the perspective of long-term winning rate, dividend assets are still a stable choice for bottom position allocation. Companies with higher dividend yields tend to accept their own weakness in the economy, and after entering the mature period, they tend to increase shareholder returns in the form of dividends, and such companies will not have a radical turn in the follow-up business model, and the stability of ROE is also guaranteed, and the effectiveness of the ROE low volatility strategy has continued to rise in the past two years, and such factors are still effective in the short term. Since June, A-share listed companies have continued to complete ex-rights and dividends, the value of dividends has flowed out, and the valuation stock price has been revised down synchronously, accumulating new undistributed profits in the next six months to eight months.
Property stocks strengthened
Today, real estate stocks are also relatively strong, with the real estate sector as a whole rising nearly 5%. In terms of individual stocks, Debe Group, Binjiang Group, Huafa Shares, I Love My Home, Urban Construction Development and other shares rose by the limit, Xincheng Holdings, China Merchants Shekou, Gemdale Group, etc. rose by more than 7%, Poly Development rose by more than 6%, and Vanke A rose by more than 5%.
Judging from the news, the real estate industry has ushered in a number of good news in recent days. On June 28, the central bank announced that the Monetary Policy Committee of the central bank recently held a regular meeting for the second quarter of 2024. It is pointed out that it is necessary to fully understand the new changes in the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market, conform to the new expectations of the people for high-quality housing, and strive to promote the implementation of the introduced financial policies and measures to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. Increase financial support for the "market + security" housing supply system, and promote the acceleration of the construction of a new model of real estate development.
In addition, at the end of last week, data released by the China Index Research Institute showed that in the first half of 2024, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies will be 2,083.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.6%, and the decline rate will continue to narrow by 3.8 percentage points compared with the previous month. Among them, the monthly sales of TOP100 real estate companies in June decreased by 19.55% year-on-year and increased by 26.05% month-on-month, both of which were better than those in May.
According to the analysis of the China Index Research Institute, looking forward to the future, on the whole, the implementation of a package of real estate policies on May 17 has a good role in boosting market confidence, and the activity of the short-term core first- and second-tier cities is expected to continue for a period of time, thereby bringing some support to the national market, but the overall pace of market repair still depends on the improvement of residents' income expectations, and the national new housing market may still be in the bottoming stage in the short term. In terms of destocking, all localities may speed up the detailed implementation of policies such as the acquisition and storage of unsold new houses by local state-owned enterprises and the acquisition of stock land, so as to help real estate enterprises speed up the recovery of funds and help resolve industry risks. It is expected that with the optimization of both supply and demand at the same time, the real estate market will accelerate its stabilization and recovery, and the sales of real estate companies will improve.
Donghai Securities also pointed out that since the implementation of the "5.17 New Deal" for more than a month, the sales of new houses in some high-energy cities have improved to varying degrees. From May 17 to June 25, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities increased by 12.7% month-on-month, with the second-tier cities improving the most (15%). From the perspective of representative cities, Hangzhou, Wuhan, Qingdao, Guangzhou, and Suzhou have rebounded significantly, of which Hangzhou has risen nearly 1 times month-on-month, and Wuhan has risen by more than 4% month-on-month. The new policy has lowered the threshold for buying a house and the burden of loan repayment, promoted the effective release of potential housing demand, and has a positive effect on the improvement of the real estate market, but the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities still fell by about 30% year-on-year. In June, the National Standing Committee mentioned that "we will continue to study and reserve new policy measures to destock and stabilize the market", and if the policy effect gradually weakens and new home sales fail to stabilize and rise, there may be successive policy measures in the future.
In addition, on June 26, Beijing issued a new real estate policy: adjusting the minimum down payment ratio and interest rate limit of commercial housing loans, adjusting the minimum down payment ratio of provident fund loans, supporting the needs of families with many children to improve housing, and organizing housing "trade-in" activities. Like Shenzhen, Beijing's policy optimization is mainly reflected in the credit side, and does not involve the purchase restriction policy. Huatai Securities believes that the implementation of the Beijing policy is a response to the "5.17 New Deal", which reflects the continuous implementation of the regulator's clear demand for "stabilizing real estate" at the practical level, which is expected to promote the restoration of confidence in the real estate market and build the bottom as soon as possible, providing valuation repair space for the sector.
Editor-in-charge: Wang Lulu
Proofreading: Tang Haocheng