Iron ore: hot metal production was flat month-on-month, downstream steel mill blast furnace started to continue to rebound slightly, short-term demand to maintain a certain level close to the same period, the price ushered in a rebound after a continuous callback, but the short-term rebound space is not large, the upper pressure, the operation is recommended I2409:820-850 interval operation.
Hot coil: the fundamentals failed to continue to improve month-on-month, this week by the cost support of the upward impact of the price rebound slightly after the short-term is expected to be dominated by the short-term shock trend, the day is recommended 10 contracts 3700-3800 range operation.
Thread: Weak reality continues, the price has eased after a continuous pullback, the upstream cost support has driven the price of finished products to rebound at a low level, and it is expected that the short-term rebound space is limited and the upper pressure is limited, and it is recommended that the 10 contract 3500-35800 range is short.
Coking coal: Under the high start of coking and steel enterprises, the demand for coking coal is not reduced, but due to the deepening of the off-season, poor transaction of building materials, and low profits of coking steel, the downstream is still cautious about coking coal procurement, mostly on demand, and it is expected that short-term coking coal may temporarily run steadily. Coking coal 2409: 1580-1630 operation.
Coke: At present, coke enterprises still have small profits, and production enthusiasm has rebounded, but some coke enterprises have slightly adjusted their output due to their own maintenance, and production has been slightly disturbed, and the coke inventory in the plant is mostly running at a low level, while the downstream market demand is still strong, and there is still a demand for coke replenishment, and it is expected that short-term coke may temporarily operate steadily. Coke 2409: 2280-2330 interval operation.
Stainless steel 2409: Bears are slowly out, wait and see.
Glass: The supply of glass is declining, the demand is weak, the inventory is stable and rising, and the short-term is expected to fluctuate and run in the air. FG2409: Intraday bearish operation in the range of 1520-1570
PVC: The cost support of the calcium carbide method is stable and weak, and the cost of ethylene method is lower due to the decline in crude oil prices, and the overall cost support remains stable; Maintenance will also increase in July, and the overall supply will decline; Upstream enterprises have accumulated slightly, and downstream social inventories have increased slightly, and the overall situation has remained at a high level; Domestic demand has not improved; Exports are supported by high freight rates, but the overall demand is still weak, and the market is expected to remain volatile and adjustable.
Asphalt: According to the current high level of profit difference between asphalt and coking materials, the output of the refinery will remain high; The rainy season is approaching, and demand may be further constrained; The social inventory is still high, and the inventory in the factory and the port have been transferred to the warehouse, and the overall level is close to the historical average; Crude oil rebounded again, and cost support rebounded slightly. At present, it is supported by the rebound in costs to stabilize, and in the context of poor demand, it is expected that the short-term market may adjust in a narrow range.
Plastics: The main contract is volatile, the cost support returns, crude oil rises, the inventory is neutral, and the PE trend is expected to be strong today, and the 8460-8730 shock in L2409 is more than operational
PP: The main contract is volatile, the cost support returns, crude oil rises, the inventory is neutral, and the PP trend is expected to be strong today, and PP2409 intraday 7670-7920 shocks are more operational
Urea: The main contract is volatile, industrial demand is falling, agricultural demand is improving, export profits are better, but export legal inspection is stopped again, UR is expected to fluctuate today, UR2409 intraday 2050-2150 shock operation
Tianjiao 2409: sell short on high prices, break 15200 stop loss; Standard rubber 2408: short on the high, break 12600 stop loss; Synthetic rubber 2408: short on the high, break the 15200 stop loss
Fuel oil: Oil prices have rebounded on the cost side, fuel fundamentals are stable, and fuel shocks are expected to be more mainstay. FU2409: Intraday operation in the range of 3530-3590
Oils: Prices fluctuate, domestic fundamentals are loose, and domestic oil supply is stable. The U.S. soybean stock-to-sales ratio remains around 5%, the supply is tight, and the USDA Brazilian soybean production reduction in 23/24 is basically finalized, but the overall supply in South America is relatively loose. The production increase of U.S. beans is expected to be strong, and we will continue to pay attention to it. The inventory pressure of horse palm has decreased, and now it has entered the production increase season, and the weak demand has also improved, but the trend of accumulation has suppressed oil prices to a certain extent. The domestic oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable.
Soybean oil Y2409: 7400-8100 near high throw low suck
Palm oil P2409: 7400-8000 near high and low suck
Rapeseed oil OI2409: 8100-8700 near high throw low suck
White sugar: Zheng Sugar's main 09 fundamentals are neutral, the disk is unlikely to rise and fall, 09 contracts maintain a range of 6000-6300 shocks, and currently rebound to the middle of the range, and the low position is mainly based on high profits and reductions.
Cotton: Zheng Mian's main force 09 continues to be in the stage of shock rebound. In the process of technical rebound, aggressive investors can consider taking a short position.
Soybean meal: There are still uncertainties in short-term South American soybean exports, and driven by the trend of U.S. soybeans, the short-term shock of domestic soybean meal is weak.
Soybean meal M2409: intraday range of 3320 to 3380, options wait-and-see.
Rapeseed meal: rapeseed meal short-term bean trend driven by weak shocks, but rapeseed meal demand is at the bottom of the peak season to support prices, and the fundamentals of supply and demand are gradually biased towards bullishness.
Rapeseed meal RM2409: intraday range of 2600 to 2680, options wait-and-see.
Soybeans: The cost-effective advantage of domestic soybeans over imported soybeans supports the bottom of the disk, but the arrival of imported soybeans into the peak season and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppress the disk.
Douyi A2409: Intraday range of 4600 to 4700, options wait-and-see.
Shanghai Nickel 2409: Bears are slowly taking profits, intraday trading or waiting for performance near the 20 EMA.
Zinc: LME inventory warehouse receipts remain high; The warehouse receipts of the previous period also remained high; Shanghai Zinc ZN2408: Short Position.
Copper: At present, the overall macro sentiment has improved to support copper prices, due to the rapid decline in processing fees led to the joint reduction of domestic smelters, resulting in copper prices rising, long short-term sentiment falling, copper prices have stabilized after the fall, Shanghai copper 2408: short on highs, stop loss 80,000.
Aluminum: carbon neutrality has prompted changes in the aluminum industry, long-term positive aluminum prices, poor domestic consumption, short-term macro expectations have improved, aluminum capacity supply has tightened, sentiment has fallen, aluminum prices have been adjusted, Shanghai Aluminum 2408: wait and see in the day.
IF2407: 3410-3475 operation, IH2407: 2350-2395 operation, IC2407: 4880-5030 operation, IM2407: 4800-4970 operation
Bonds: The manufacturing PMI fell below the boom and bust line for two consecutive months in June, the CPI rebounded moderately in May but was slightly weaker than expected, and the decline in PPI improved; In May, the new social finance turned positive, and M1 fell sharply year-on-year due to the impact of the central bank's crackdown on manual interest discounts; The economic data in May was slightly lower than expected, of which the weak demand side continued, the profit growth of industrial enterprises declined, and the downward trend of real estate did not change. Yesterday, the central bank announced the launch of treasury bond borrowing operations, and the sentiment of futures bonds reversed sharply in the intraday, and the follow-up attention to further changes in interest rates.
Industrial silicon: due to the downward impact of electricity price costs during the supply harvest period, the supply growth may be considerable; Demand shows no signs of recovery; Polysilicon continued to lose money, but production scheduling is expected to resume from next month, polysilicon inventory pressure has rebounded, wafers continue to go to stock, and cell and module are still weak, with limited support. Costs may remain low; The current market price is still below the cost line; As the supply continues to increase, the market will still be adjusted by bearish shocks in the short term.
Lithium carbonate: On the supply side, affected by the recovery of ore production and the gradual arrival of imports, imports increased by 15.9% month-on-month in May, and imports are expected to remain at a high level in June. Downstream demand is insufficient, power batteries and energy storage battery production continued to decline in June, but there may be a rebound in July, Europe further increases tariffs or suppresses terminal demand, pay attention to the results of tariff negotiations in early July; There was a pullback in the market yesterday, but it is expected that the market will maintain a narrow range of shock adjustment in the short term.