Recently, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the passenger association, said that the revenue of the automobile industry in the past 1-5 months was 3.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%. However, the profit of the industry is only 204.7 billion yuan, and the profit margin is 5.3%, which is obviously low compared with the average profit margin of 6.1% of downstream industrial enterprises.
The industry is not having a good time, and the most direct response is the terminal dealer. According to the latest "China Auto Dealer Inventory Warning Index Survey" VIA released by the China Automobile Dealers Association, the inventory warning index of dealers in the past 6 months was 62.3%, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year and 4.1% month-on-month!
The inventory warning index of 62.3% shows how much pressure dealers have! Although the impulse of car companies in the middle of the year will put greater target pressure on dealers, judging from this year's market performance, the pressure can no longer become a driving force, but may become the straw that overwhelms distribution.
According to the forecast data of the China Automobile Dealers Association, the terminal sales of passenger cars in June may only be about 1.75 million units. The target pressure is greater, but the actual market has not improved, and the situation of the big outbreak in the middle of the previous year has not appeared.
Affected by market conditions, in the first half of this year, only 18.4% of dealers have completed sales tasks, and the proportion of dealers with a completion rate of less than 50% has reached 13.5%! If the sales target is not met, it not only means that the income is reduced, but also that policies such as factory subsidies may mean that there is no chance, no wonder the car market is wailing now.
Why is it that in today's environment of general sharp drop in car prices, the sales of the car market have not improved significantly? In this regard, 51 Jun believes that there are two major factors affecting sales, consumer confidence and interest exchange, and there is a problem.
The economic downturn is inevitable, and the price war is also worrying. In addition to independent brands, major joint venture brands are also caught in the whirlpool of price wars. For example, Accord, which has a guide price of 197,800 yuan, has recently officially launched a comprehensive discount of 50,000 yuan, which is only 147,800 yuan! The sharp drop in prices has led to a stronger wait-and-see mentality among consumers.
However, judging from 51 Jun's recent visit to the market, there is no room for preferential basic prices for products that have been officially discounted. For example, BYD Han series products, there is no discount at all. The discount of the Song PLUS series is only a few thousand yuan.
There is no room for discounts, which is obviously contrary to the consumption habits that have been cultivated over the years. In the past, when buying a car, the basic actual selling price was lower than the guide price, and what consumers cared about was not only the real discount, but also the psychological enjoyment of "taking advantage". On the other hand, looking at the current market situation, there is no room for concessions, which is unacceptable for many consumers for a while.
In such an industry context, consumers who do not just need it might as well wait. I don't know how many readers, like 51 Jun, believe that at the end of the year, there may be another wave.
As a result, whether it is a luxury brand, a joint venture brand or an independent brand, they are all facing the cruel status quo of high-pressure inventory. Even according to the statistics of the China Automobile Dealers Association, the inventory index of luxury and imported brands is as high as 66.4%! Even rich people who don't worry about money don't want to complain anymore, let alone ordinary consumers?
When the market itself lacks vitality, good policy incentives are needed. However, this year's "trade-in" policy is obviously not as attractive to consumers as other policies in the past. According to the feedback from dealers, less than 20% of consumers enter the store information "trade-in" policy, and the actual transaction ratio is less than 10%! It can be seen that the scope of influence of this policy is narrow.
If the results of the "trade-in" are counted according to official data, it is even more pessimistic. In the two months since its release at the end of April, just over 110,000 vehicles have submitted applications for scrap subsidies nationwide. Compared to the sales of several millions, it is obviously not worth mentioning.
Why is this happening? The core reason is still the lack of attractiveness. Compared with the direct cash policy, the "trade-in" is seen more as a fringe benefit of car purchase. I don't know if readers agree, welcome to leave a message to share.
Entering July, the enthusiasm of various car companies to release sales has also weakened a lot. As of the time of writing, only 8 new forces have announced sales results. Among them, only Li (47,774 units), NIO (21,209 units), and Zeekr (20,106 units) can sell more than 20,000 units. As for the rest, they are still struggling in the wind and rain.
Entering July, it also means the arrival of the traditional sales off-season. For major car companies and dealers, they may wish to take this opportunity to reorganize their own operations and how to boost their brand reputation and influence, which is the crucial core of the decisive battle in the second half of 2024. Finally, what do you think will be the performance of the auto market in the second half of the year? Welcome to leave a message to share.
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Legal adviser
Beijing Weiheng (Fuzhou) Law Firm, Lai Chenglong, lawyer