This morning, the main 30-year and 10-year contracts of Treasury bond futures hit new highs. Wind data shows that as of 11:30, the main contract of 30-year treasury bond futures rose 0.36% to 109.99 yuan, the highest intraday price of 110.05 yuan, and the main contract of 10-year treasury bond futures rose 0.10% to 105.47 yuan, and the highest intraday price was 105.50 yuan, both of which hit new highs.
At 1:10 p.m., the central bank posted a message on its official website: in order to maintain the steady operation of the bond market, on the basis of prudent observation and evaluation of the current market situation, the People's Bank of China has decided to carry out treasury bond borrowing operations for some primary dealers in the open market in the near future.
As soon as the news came out, Treasury bond futures suddenly dived. The 30-year main contract ended up falling by more than 1%, the 10-year main contract fell nearly 0.4%, and the 5-year main contract fell by more than 0.2%. At the same time, yields on major interbank interest rate bonds mostly climbed.
Why did the central bank act intraday? Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that the treasury bond market has come out of a unilateral unexpected market. Since the beginning of this year, the bond market has performed well. In the first half of the year, the bond market showed a bull market, and bond prices went all the way up. At the same time, bond yields continued to fall, with ultra-long-term Treasury yields recently falling below 2.5% and 10-year Treasury bonds briefly touching 2.2%. Funds flocked into the bond market and frantically snapped up bond funds.
Previously, in the face of debt bulls, the central bank had shouted many times. The latest is at the recent Lujiazui Forum, the governor of the central bank Pan Gongsheng said that the central bank needs to observe and assess the situation of the financial market from a macro-prudential perspective, timely correct and block the accumulation of financial market risks, and at present, it is especially necessary to pay attention to the maturity mismatch and interest rate risk of some non-bank entities holding a large number of medium and long-term bonds, maintain a normal upward slope yield curve, and maintain the positive incentive effect of the market on investment.
At the same time as the treasury bond futures plunged, the market expected that funds would flow to A-shares, so A-shares fluctuated higher in the afternoon, and the Shanghai Composite Index challenged 3,000 points. From the perspective of the disk, the hot spots throughout the day are the high-dividend sectors, Agricultural Bank of China, Yangtze River Power, Nanjing-Shanghai Expressway, China Mobile, CNOOC, and Shaanxi Coal Industry hit a record high. It is worth noting that when treasury bond futures plunged today, the high-dividend sector also fluctuated downward, and from the perspective of investment logic, they have certain commonalities, and they are all hedging options for funds.
In addition, the real estate sector saw an outbreak today. Driven by a series of policies, the transaction volume of the property market is expanding. As of June 29, the total transaction volume of second-hand houses in Shanghai has reached 25,319 units, exceeding 25,000 units for the first time since June 2021, setting a record for the highest monthly transaction in the past three years.
Today's biggest shorting momentum comes from Kweichow Moutai and CATL. CATL suddenly plunged nearly 5% in early trading today, and there are rumors that two of the four pull lines of a CATL base have stopped, which only occurred at the end of November 2023 when there were no orders. In response to the news that "the industry's production scheduling data in July generally declined", the relevant person in charge of CATL responded to Jiemian News, saying that the company's business situation is good, the global market share is steadily increasing, the overall production schedule is good, and the production schedule in the recent and third quarters has shown a growth trend compared with the previous quarter.
At present, the Shanghai Composite Index has signs of completing the short-term bottom construction, but there is still no bottom signal in the double creation. Today, the total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets throughout the day was 658.071 billion yuan, and the market was running at a low volume. In the future, we need to pay attention to whether the bond bull will reverse, and whether the high-dividend huddle will continue.
Author: Xu Jinhua
Editor: Li Ang
Producer: Wang Junji
This article is the exclusive content of the WeChat public account of "CBN Broadcasting", please contact the background for authorization before reprinting. The individual stocks involved in this article are for reference only, and are not recommended for trading and are not responsible for personal income.