This article has a total of 1400 words, and it takes about 5 minutes to read
Financial Investment News reporter Lin Ke
In June, the A-share market ended in green, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 3.87% and the Shenzhen Component Index falling 5.51%, both of which recorded the second largest monthly decline this year. Throughout June, the two cities were basically in a unilateral downward trend, and the short-term rebound was fruitless. For the coming July, will a sustained correction trigger a rebound? Institutions generally believe that shock bottoming is the main tone.
Monthly candlestick chart of the Shanghai Composite Index
There are differences in the general trend of research and judgment
For the operation of the market outlook, the views of the industry are differentiated. Dongguan Securities said that from the perspective of the market environment in July, the global PMI data in June were mixed, of which the U.S. manufacturing and service industries continued to expand, and the economic recovery momentum of the euro area and Japan weakened. In addition, the capital market reform is expected to be clear under the "New Nine Measures", and the "Eight Articles of the Science and Technology Innovation Board" will help improve the investment attractiveness of the Science and Technology Innovation Board.
Dongguan Securities further pointed out that from a technical point of view, the Shanghai Composite Index weekly K-line recorded 6 consecutive negatives, and asset prices may have fully fed back the pessimistic expectations of investors. After continuous shocks and corrections, the current A-share market has a high cost performance and margin of safety, and the policy of steady growth in the market outlook has been increased, combined with the continuous improvement of the system under the current capital market policy dividends, or to form a strong support for the market. Looking ahead, policy expectations are likely to drive a rebound in market risk appetite ahead of the important July meeting. In addition, the real estate inventory continues to be implemented and promoted, there is still room for RRR and interest rate cuts, fiscal, industrial and other policies continue to play an effect in expanding demand, Dongguan Securities believes that with the gradual release of market selling pressure, market confidence is expected to re-condense, consolidate the foundation of A-share stability, and judge that the market may gradually bottom out and rebound in repeated shocks.
"There is a top and a bottom on the whole, and after the market expectation is revised, the upside risk is greater than the downside risk." Zhongtai Securities believes that it may face the expected frequent fluctuations next. First of all, the decline from late May to June was a re-revision of the market's internal and external expectations, with domestic real estate and economic expectations at the top of the list. Although it has previously judged that the repair of real estate expectations is non-linear, the market's interpretation of expectations is somewhat "overkill" and is now close to the lower edge of risk appetite. In addition, Zhongtai Securities still insists that the recent expected fluctuations are within the framework, and this non-linear expected trend means that it may both repeat and reverse in the future. For example, a new round of real estate policy relaxation may bring about a phased recovery of economic expectations; Occasional surprises in U.S. employment and inflation data may lead to changes in the Fed's statement, etc., which are basically expected within the framework.
"It is expected that A-shares will maintain a shock adjustment." In contrast, Shanxi Securities' attitude is obviously cautious. Shanxi Securities said that looking ahead, overseas, the euro area has cut interest rates as scheduled in June, and it is expected that September and December will still be reduced by 25 basis points each. As the US CPI data in May did not grow as fast as expected, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice in 2024. It believes that after that, the expectation is still facing adjustment, the US CPI in June may be difficult to continue the optimistic performance in May, the US dollar will remain strong in the short term, and the marginal impact of northbound funds on A-shares cannot be ignored. Domestically, an important meeting will be held in July, focusing on the key economic development directions and support areas released by the meeting, and it is expected that A-shares will maintain shock adjustment.
The high dividend + leading strategy has become a consensus
From the perspective of opportunities, the strategy of high dividend + leading is still the general consensus of institutions. Zhongtai Securities pointed out that the direction of domestic macro resistance is "pan-dividend" assets. Its judgment on the domestic macro trend is weak + risk-free, on the one hand, the corresponding long-term interest rate will be maintained at a low level, on the other hand, some pro-cyclical varieties may have limited space. In addition, the valuation level of traditional high-dividend assets is not low, and it is recommended to reduce the dividend yield requirement and look for "pan-dividend assets" with "dividend yield + stable return on equity", including leading companies such as public utilities, electricity, shipping, and some low-valued banks in Hong Kong stocks. Traditional high-dividend assets are recommended to intervene in the event of adjustment.
China Merchants Securities believes that important meetings will be held, and the major reform directions in the meeting may have a key impact on the market, and it is more likely to boost market sentiment. From the perspective of economic data, the base impact has lagged behind for a while, and economic data is expected to stabilize. July is the peak period for the disclosure of interim earnings forecasts, and the proportion of positive results this year may increase, alleviating previous concerns about fundamentals. In terms of incremental funding, investors in major ETFs continued to significantly increase their holdings, providing financial support for market stability. After the market correction in the early stage, the pessimism was obviously released, and in the future, with the increase in reform expectations and the gradual stabilization of performance, A-shares are expected to gradually bottom out and rebound in July. In terms of style, after the adjustment, we will continue to focus on the dual-leading strategy of high return on net assets, high FCF quality, and technology and technology innovation leaders. At the industry level, we will focus on areas where the reported performance is expected to exceed expectations, opportunities in the export window period, new quality productivity directions, and consumption areas with improved prosperity.
Editor|He Menglu Proofreading|Yuan Gang Review|Liao Xiaotao
This article is |Financial Investment News jrtzb028 (WeChat ID)|
Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited If you need to reprint, please contact Jin Meier
Reproduction must be prominently placed at the beginning of the text
Indicate the source of the manuscript and the author's name, and offenders will be investigated
Internet news information service license number: 51120180008