Macron's "big gamble" failed, and he can't become president? France may change, and the 28-year-old "high school student" is expected to take the position, which may affect the China policy. What kind of "big gamble" did Macron make? How will the changes in France affect China policy?
On June 30, local time, the results of the first round of Macron's desperate French National Assembly election were released. According to the global network, the French far-right party coalition "National Alliance" still won a big victory, with 34.5% of the vote. In second place went to the left-wing New Popular Front with 28.5 per cent of the vote. Macron, who made a "big gamble", and the centrist coalition of his leaders "together", received only 22.5% of the vote, ranking third. Obviously, Macron's "big gamble" was a complete failure. The leader of the "National Alliance", 28-year-old Jordán Bardeira, is likely to become the new prime minister of France. It is worth mentioning that Bardeira was a student at the Sorbonne in Paris, but he gave up his studies in his junior year, so he only had a high school diploma. But it is such a young man, who has been in politics for 12 years, and may change the political map of France!
Of course, the "National Alliance" has not yet confirmed the victory. Earlier, the far-right Freedom Party in the Netherlands won the election, but finally announced that it would relinquish the prime minister because it could not find a political ally to form a coalition government. The same was true for the National Rally, which did not receive more than half of the vote, leading to a second round of the French parliamentary elections. Thus, Macron can join forces with Mélenchon, the leader of the "New Popular Front", to face the "National Alliance". However, Macron is also at odds with Mélenchon, accusing the latter of being "anti-Semitic" and "socialist-faker". It can be seen that the French political arena has been extremely divided, the extreme right-wing and left-wing forces are getting stronger and stronger, and the contradictions are getting bigger and bigger, and the possibility of forming a coalition government is very low.
There is information that because of the defeat in the parliamentary elections, Macron may consider resigning from the presidency. If that happens, Macron's biggest political opponent, far-right leader Marine Le Pen, is likely to come to power. So, how will this affect France? In fact, the main political ideas of the far-right in France are the same as those of the vast majority of far-right parties in Europe: leaving the eurozone, leaving the European Union, and being anti-immigrant. However, the far-right forces in Europe have long been "fighting in silos", and there has been no transnational coalition. Therefore, within the framework of the European Union, the far right has been suppressed by the center-left forces. However, if France, the leading country in the EU, is controlled by the far right, it will inevitably have a "radiation effect" and push the EU to accelerate its "rightward turn".
However, if the far right takes full control of France, it will inevitably affect its China policy. Given the conservative consciousness of the far right, it is likely that they will implement more extreme "protectionist" measures to build trade barriers against China. This situation is obviously very unfavorable to Sino-French economic and trade cooperation. But on the big side, the far right may relax its suppression of China, so that the "encirclement of containing China" built by the United States and the West will gradually be dismantled. Because compared to the extreme left, which values the so-called "ideology", the far right cares more about tangible interests. Of course, in recent years, the EU has followed the United States and its attitude towards China has changed, and China and the EU are no longer close partners in politics, economics or trade. Therefore, China does not seek the EU to improve its relations with China. At present, China's top priority is to make every effort to develop its comprehensive strength. As long as you are strong enough, no matter how much the outside world changes, you won't be able to cause any impact!