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Text: Yu Yu
Edited by Yu Yu
Preface
China and India, as the world's most populous countries, have a very important position in the whole world.
However, a puzzling phenomenon has sparked widespread discussion: why does India, which produces less than half of China's grain, export large quantities of grain, while China needs to import large quantities?
Food Production: The Truth Behind the Numbers
When we focus on the grain production of China and India, a staggering set of data comes to life.
China's total grain production in 2022 was 686 million tonnes, while India's 315 million tonnes was less than half that of China.
However, the numbers are often only the appearance, and the truth is often hidden in the details, and although China has a high grain production, its per capita food consumption is not as good as that of India.
In 2022, the per capita grain share of Chinese is about 483 kilograms, while India's has reached about 530 kilograms.
Behind this contrast is the huge difference in agricultural production capacity between the two countries, with China arable about 135 million hectares and India 159 million hectares.
The seemingly similar numbers represent a very different reality, and China's arable land resources are facing serious challenges: increasing urbanization, increasing demand for industrial land, and decreasing arable land.
On the other hand, India's unique natural conditions provide favorable conditions for its agricultural development, and the diverse climate and fertile soil allow India to grow a variety of crops and produce crops throughout the year.
Natural conditions are only one aspect of agricultural production, and technical level and management capacity are also crucial, and China is clearly superior in this regard.
China's level of agricultural science and technology and mechanization are much higher than India's, which to a certain extent makes up for the disadvantages of natural conditions.
Climate change is a global challenge that has had a profound impact on agricultural production in both countries, and the frequent occurrence of extreme weather events, such as droughts, floods and high temperatures, has put tremendous pressure on food production in both countries.
In the face of this challenge, China has taken proactive measures to deal with it, such as promoting drought-resistant varieties and improving irrigation technology.
Although India is also making efforts, due to its relatively backward infrastructure and relatively weak coping capacity, the current situation of food production in China and India is the result of a combination of multiple factors, and it is difficult to fully reflect the real situation of the two countries by simply comparing the output figures.
Deep-seated institutional differences
When we delve into the differences in food production between China and India, one key factor that cannot but be mentioned is the land system.
This seemingly simple institutional arrangement has a profound impact on the agricultural production and food policies of the two countries.
Over thousands of years, this system has become deeply ingrained in Indian society, but it has also brought with it serious problems of land concentration.
In stark contrast to China's land system, where large numbers of peasants have been reduced to tenant farmers and have worked on landlords' land all their lives, they have struggled to escape poverty.
Although this process was not all smooth sailing, the resulting household responsibility system for the production of goods has aroused the peasants' enthusiasm for production to a great extent.
However, the impact of the system goes far beyond that, and a large number of people in India still live in rural areas and engage in agricultural production, and this demographic structure has somewhat alleviated India's food pressure.
What's more, the demand characteristics of India's domestic market are also very different from those of China, where a significant portion of the population is vegetarian and their diet is dominated by grains and vegetables, and the demand for meat is relatively low.
This has indirectly boosted the demand for fodder grains, which in turn has increased the overall demand for food, in addition to the high level of self-sufficiency of India's rural population, with many farmers growing mainly for their own consumption.
This smallholder economic model, although inefficient, ensures a basic food supply to some extent.
The differences between China and India in terms of land system, population structure and market demand have profoundly affected the food production and consumption patterns of the two countries. These deep-seated institutional differences are key to our understanding of the food policies of the two countries.
Policy-oriented: food security vs foreign exchange earnings
When we turn our attention to the food policies of China and India, a stark contrast emerges: China prioritizes food security, while India is more focused on earning foreign exchange earnings from grain exports.
This difference in policy orientation not only reflects the different development strategies of the two countries, but also has a profound impact on the pattern of global grain trade.
Behind this strategy is a profound lesson in China's history of social unrest caused by food shortages many times.
In order to achieve this strategic goal, China has adopted a series of measures, first of all, to vigorously increase domestic grain production capacity, and to continuously increase output per unit area through scientific and technological innovation and agricultural infrastructure construction.
The second is the establishment of a large food reserve system to cope with a possible food crisis, but domestic production alone is not enough to meet the growing needs of 1.4 billion people.
Therefore, China has chosen the strategy of moderate imports, which are not simply to make up for shortcomings, but a means to optimize the allocation of global resources.
In contrast, India's food policy is more aggressive, with the Indian government opting to export large quantities of food, despite the fact that a large number of people still face hunger.
The logic behind this seemingly contradictory policy is worth pondering, first of all, India urgently needs foreign exchange to support its economic development.
Secondly, the Indian government believes that through grain exports, agricultural production can be stimulated, farmers' incomes can be increased, and the development of the rural economy can be promoted.
However, such policies have also had serious negative impacts, with large food exports leading to higher domestic food prices, exacerbating the pressure on the poor to survive.
More seriously, such policies could jeopardize India's long-term food security, as the global food crisis of 2022 was a case in point.
At the beginning of the year, the Indian government had ambitions to become the world's breadbasket, but as international food prices soared, so did India's domestic food prices.
In order to stabilize domestic prices, India had to urgently suspend wheat exports, a move that triggered sharp fluctuations in international markets.
This incident has fully exposed the fragility of India's food policy, and over-reliance on food exports will not only fail to solve India's economic problems, but may also pose potential risks to national food security.
The different choices of China and India in terms of food policy reflect the fundamental differences between the two countries in terms of development strategies and governing concepts.
This disparity not only affects the food security of the two countries, but also profoundly affects the pattern of global food trade.
The control of food by the world hegemon
When we expand our horizons to the global scale, the role of China and India in the international grain trade becomes even more thought-provoking.
The global grain trade pattern is undergoing profound changes, and traditional grain exporting countries such as the United States, Canada, and Australia are facing challenges from emerging agricultural countries.
In this process of change, China is the world's largest food importer, while India is trying to become a major food exporter, and the roles of the two countries are very different.
China's massive food imports, especially soybeans, have largely reshaped the global grain trade landscape.
The Indian government hopes to increase foreign exchange earnings and enhance its international influence through grain exports. However, there are significant risks associated with this strategy, as sharp fluctuations in international food prices could make India's export policy unsustainable and could even jeopardize domestic food security.
The global food crisis in 2022 is a case in point, with the Russia-Ukraine conflict leading to a spike in international food prices and many countries introducing food export restrictions.
India initially claimed to fill the gap left by Ukraine in the market, but was soon forced to ban wheat exports due to rising domestic food prices.
The move triggered wild volatility in international markets and exposed the fragility of India's food policy.
For China, higher food prices mean higher import costs, which may push up domestic food prices and affect people's livelihoods.
However, China's huge foreign exchange reserves and diversified import sources provide it with a strong ability to resist risks.
For India, rising international food prices may bring more export earnings in the short term, but it may also trigger higher domestic food prices, exacerbating the pressure on the poor to survive.
This dilemma highlights the inherent contradictions in India's food policy, which has taken different approaches to the challenge of global food security.
China actively participates in global food governance and promotes the establishment of a fairer and more reasonable international food trade order, while India pays more attention to how to enhance its international status through grain trade.
However, both China and India need to find a balance between domestic food security and participation in global food trade.
In the face of global challenges such as climate change and population growth, no country is immune.
Epilogue:
Looking at the food policies and trade strategies of China and India, it is not difficult to see that the problem of food security is far more than simply the amount of production that can be summed up.
It involves multiple levels such as land system, population structure, economic policy, and international trade, and is a complex system engineering.
In the face of increasingly severe global food security challenges, we call on the international community to work together to build a fairer, more reasonable and more sustainable global food trading system, so that we can truly achieve world food security and contribute to the common development of mankind.
Resources:
On August 26, 2023, the Global Times published "Frequent export bans, India stirs up the global grain market"
"Foreign media: India's rice export ban may push up global food prices" published by overseas network on July 23, 2023
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