Recently, China's liquor market has undergone a round of short-term adjustment, which has attracted widespread attention in the market.
However, from the perspective of consumer analysis and the actual situation at the market level, it is not difficult to find that this adjustment is the result of the natural development of the market, rather than the reversal of the long-term positive trend of the liquor market.
1. Consumer analysis
From the perspective of consumer age stage, 25-65 years old is the consumption segment of liquor, and 35-55 years old is the peak age of liquor consumption, China's population grew rapidly in the sixties and seventies, and the generation born at that time, in 1985~2016 (China's liquor production peaked in 2016), in the economic development led by them, showed a strong demand for high alcohol, and the per capita alcohol consumption of Chinese soared; The period from 1981 to 1997 was another peak period for the birth of the Chinese population, with an annual birth population of more than 20 million (and a decrease every year since then).
These people born between 1981 and 1995 were more influenced by the previous generation, and in 2016 they entered the period of their strongest spending power, although their consumption habits were different from those of their parents, and their intake of strong alcohol was reduced, but their spending power increased significantly, although the total number of consumers was less than the number of people born in the 60s and 70s. However, in terms of the total number of liquor drinkers, there has not been a precipitous reduction. The consumption capacity is improving, the consumption amount is growing, and China's economy is still growing, and the per capita alcohol consumption is not high compared with Japan and South Korea, so the decline in alcohol consumption will not be very large, and there will still be a long period of stability.
How long will China's alcoholic beverages remain stable?
There was a peak period of birth in mainland China in 1981~1995, and the age of drinking spirits was selected as 25~65 years old, and the drinking population in the peak period of birth in 1981~1995 corresponded to 2006 to 2060.
If the peak drinking period is calculated according to the age of 35~55, the support period of the peak drinking age can be 2016~2055 for people born in 1981~1995.
Conclusion: There are still 25 years left for the stable period of China's liquor drinking population (refer to the judgment of Mr. Wang Mingfu of Hejun Consulting).
From the perspective of consumption structure, the consumer structure of the liquor market is undergoing profound changes. On the one hand, as young consumers gradually become the main force of consumption, their requirements for the quality, taste, and brand culture of liquor are increasing day by day. On the other hand, consumers' consumption scenarios for liquor are also becoming more and more diversified, from traditional business banquets and gift-giving scenarios to a wider range of scenarios such as family gatherings and friends dinners.
This change in consumption structure has made the liquor market present a more diversified competitive pattern. Brands have met the escalating needs of consumers through product innovation, quality improvement, cultural marketing and other means. At the same time, although the frequency of consumers' consumption of liquor has decreased, the pursuit of quality has not weakened, which further promotes the trend of quality and high-end in the liquor market.
2. Market-level analysis
From the perspective of the market, the recent adjustment of the liquor market is mainly reflected in price fluctuations, inventory increases, and brand competition differentiation. These adjustments are the result of the natural development of the market and the inevitable trend of the development of the industry.
First of all, price fluctuations are an inevitable product of market competition. In the increasingly fierce market competition, major wine companies have to formulate price strategies more prudently in order to compete for market share. At the same time, changes in consumer purchasing power have also had an impact on the price of liquor. To a certain extent, this kind of price fluctuation reflects the changes in the relationship between supply and demand in the market, and is a normal phenomenon of market self-regulation.
Secondly, the increase in inventory is a staged feature of the development of the industry. Under the dual pressure of consumption upgrading and market competition, some wine companies have the problem of overcapacity and overstocking. However, it also provides an opportunity for the industry to adjust. By digesting inventory and optimizing production capacity, wine companies can focus more on quality improvement and brand building, laying the foundation for long-term development.
Finally, brand competition differentiation is an inevitable trend in market development. In the environment of diversified competition, the differentiated competition between brands is becoming more and more obvious. Some enterprises with strong brand power and market influence have consolidated their market position through continuous innovation and quality improvement; However, some enterprises with weak brand power and less market influence are facing greater challenges and pressures. This phenomenon of brand competition and differentiation will further promote the development of the industry in a more concentrated and professional direction.
III. Conclusion
To sum up, although China's liquor market has recently undergone a round of short-term adjustment, from the perspective of consumer analysis and market level, this adjustment is the result of the natural development of the market, rather than the reversal of the long-term positive trend of the liquor market. On the contrary, with the in-depth development of consumption upgrading and market competition, the liquor market will present a more diversified, high-quality and high-end competition pattern. At the same time, the industry will also usher in a more concentrated and professional stage of development. Therefore, we have reason to believe that China's liquor market will continue to maintain a long-term positive trend.