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«——【Preamble】】 ——»
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Objectively, Vietnam is a country that is very suitable for building high-speed rail.
However, the inaction of the Vietnamese parliament personally vetoed the $56 billion high-speed rail budget that year, and now it has begun to plan to build high-speed rail lines, which not only cost more than 10 billion yuan, but even want to learn China's high-speed rail technology in reverse.
However, judging from the fact that Vietnam has put forward this idea twice and China has not responded positively, it is okay to help Vietnam build a high-speed railway, but it is likely that China will not be able to provide this additional requirement.
After all, Vietnam has been entangled in the construction of high-speed rail for 14 years, and after the cooperation with Japan failed, it had to turn to China for help.
On June 19, 2010, Vietnam's National Assembly voted to reject the construction of a North-South high-speed railway to be built by Japan. Due to the large scale of the vote, it caused quite a stir in Vietnam at that time.
From our current point of view, the investment of US$56 billion at that time was indeed very necessary, and as its name suggests, "the new engine of Vietnam's economic development", it may be possible that Vietnam's economic development speed will really rise to a new level after it is completed.
It is a pity that this "engine" was not built in the end, because Vietnamese scholars believe that "money should be spent on education".
They said that many villages in central Vietnam do not even have bridges, and it is very difficult for students to go to school, and it is better to build high-speed railways than to build bridges and pave roads.
Admittedly, many parts of Vietnam have poor infrastructure, and even Hanoi, the capital of the central region, lacks transportation to and from surrounding cities. In other places, such as the main road connecting Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi City, the traffic situation can be described as indescribable.
If Vietnam's north-south high-speed railway is really built, let alone students going to school, there will be a qualitative improvement for Vietnam's domestic economic development.
What's more, this time was still 14 years ago, and the Chinese infrastructure team was in full swing at that time, if Vietnam can finalize such a big deal with China, it will not only be good news for China's project, but Vietnam itself will not see the shadow of high-speed rail by 2024.
But having said that, Vietnam's domestic belief at the time was that their GDP in 2009 was just over $90 billion, and that building a high-speed rail would cost more than half of it. Moreover, economic development is a long-term plan, and even if the high-speed rail is built until 2035, Vietnam will definitely enjoy the last wave of economic development dividends.
After this incident, some scholars in China commented on Vietnam, saying that it not only has a low urbanization rate, but also lacks financial resources, so it has greatly increased the burden of infrastructure construction.
In the past two years, as the "golden signboard" of China's infrastructure team has become louder and louder, Vietnam has begun to come up with the idea of building high-speed rail.
However, the Vietnamese parliament seems to really have a "choice difficulty", and it has repeatedly jumped between China and Japan many times, causing the people of both countries to complain about Vietnam.
In fact, whether from our point of view or from the objective development of Vietnam itself, Vietnam should ask China, which is closer to them, to undertake this project.
Because China has helped many countries build high-speed railways before, the results and reputation can be inquired about. What's more, once the construction of the high-speed railway in Vietnam is completed, the economic and trade network between China and Laos and Vietnam will be opened up faster, which will also be a strong impetus for the development of cities along the line.
However, Vietnam has been thinking about it since it was locked down at home two years ago, and has been considering that in April this year, Reuters suddenly quoted Vietnamese media reports that Vietnam had finally considered cooperating with China.
It's just that this cooperation is not to ask China to build a high-speed railway, but to plan a high-speed rail line with a cost of up to 72 billion US dollars, and then come to China to learn the technology and build it yourself.
The Vietnamese side issued a statement saying that China's railway industry is the most developed in the world, so Vietnam hopes to learn from China's experience, especially in the mobilization of capital and technical management.
The statement was quoted by Vietnamese officials in domestic media, after which the two sides held talks, but there were no reports of the outcome of the talks.
On June 25, at the World Economic Forum in Dalian, the Prime Minister of Vietnam once again spoke on this matter, expressing the hope that China can assist Vietnam in railway design, construction and technology transfer.
Bloomberg immediately listed a lot of data, saying that China is Vietnam's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade exceeding $200 billion last year, and China is also an important importer of Vietnam's manufacturing industry.
But then again, since Vietnam did not choose China for the first time, and later left Japan in a long wait, after seeing the benefits of China's high-speed rail "the first order to go to sea", it was really confirmed that the sentence "do big things and cherish your life, see small profits and forget your life".
If that's all there is to it, it's fine, after all, no one can predict what will happen in more than ten years. If we look at the economic development of Vietnam at that time, it is not wrong to be cautious.
But the most incomprehensible thing is that the Vietnamese media has already published an article in 2021 mentioning that the current domestic railway network in Vietnam has experienced a history of 100 years, not to mention the high maintenance cost for a long time, and the actual benefits are difficult to catch up with the evolution of the times.
Someone in Vietnam suggested that the old railway should be upgraded, and the seams should be repaired for another three years. Others suggested asking China to rebuild new railways to increase transport and passenger capacity.
Vietnam's State Railways has rejected either, arguing that Vietnam should follow the example of other countries by keeping old railways and building new high-speed railways. That's why China was found.
However, when the railway is built, the railway will be built, but Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh said that he "hopes that China will transfer high-speed rail technology", which is really a request that the Chinese side will not agree to before the meal is eaten.
The Vietnamese government has boasted to its people that Vietnam is already seeking China's support for the high-speed rail project, which is expected to start around 2026-2027 and build two high-speed railways by 2030.
The construction of high-speed rail needs to consider many geological and geographical impacts, so it is more necessary to use scientific planning and surprise management to maintain long-term operation.
Since the Vietnamese side hopes to cooperate with China, it must be more recognized by these technologies of China's high-speed rail. Vietnam's railway industry lacks operational experts to learn from, but it is really unacceptable for China to transfer technology.
Resources:
Vietnam seeks China's support for the development of high-speed rail project——2024-06-26·The Paper
Foreign media: Vietnam seeks to learn from China to build high-speed rail——2024-04-03·Overseas Network
Wu Wei: The bright future of China-Vietnam railway cooperation is Vietnam's wake-up call-2024-06-30 Straight News