Written by Yu Jie
Editor|Produced by Yang Guang|Automobile Sankei
For half a month, BYD's high-end brand Denza N7's various test videos of the "No Map City Pilot Intelligent Driving System" have a strong sense of presence. For a while, the whole network exclaimed: BYD's intelligent driving is already so good? Proper first echelon!
The comments are exaggerated, because the current intelligent driving solution of the DENZA N7 is mainly integrated by the supplier. However, relying on supplier integration is not BYD's style, and self-developed autonomous driving is inevitable. And BYD is indeed accelerating its own development.
At BYD's 2023 shareholders' meeting on June 6 this year, BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu has already said that BYD will apply AI to the field of driving assistance, he said, "At present, BYD has organized 4,000 people and established a huge team in perception, decision-making, software, and chips, and has carried out a comprehensive layout in the industrial chain, software, algorithms, chips, and solutions." ”
Subsequently, some media broke the news that BYD will set up a separate "Tianxuan" intelligent driving development department to develop its own intelligent driving system. This development department was spun off from the self-developed team of the Intelligent Driving R&D Center of the Planning Institute, but it is at the same level as the latter in terms of organizational structure.
Wang Chuanfu, who was still saying last year that "autonomous driving is", has undergone such a big change in a year, which is nothing more than a new understanding of the competitive environment. Of course, there is still a distance to enter the first echelon of intelligent driving in the way of supplier integration. But since even BYD has made efforts, it means that intelligent driving is going to speed up in China.
Some industry insiders have judged that there are two companies that can have a substantial impact on China's intelligent driving routes, one is BYD and the other is Tesla.
The former is large, and once the intelligent driving speed is accelerated, the impact on the overall pattern will be huge. Tesla, as a leader in this field, has been influencing the direction of intelligent driving of various car companies. What is imminent is that once Tesla's FSD enters China, the impact on domestic friends will also be immeasurable.
But when exactly FSD will come is still unknown. It has almost evolved into a story of "the wolf is coming", and it will come out every few days to scare people.
On June 15, it was reported that Lu Sen, director of the data department of the Shanghai Lingang New Area Management Committee, revealed that Nanhui New City is promoting 10 Tesla vehicles to carry out a pilot of full self-driving (FSD). But soon, Lu Sen himself refuted the rumors in the circle of friends, saying: I have not disclosed it, and I do not know the relevant information about the pilot of T autonomous driving. It is also accompanied by a picture of "speechless".
Recently, Tesla's direct store sales said that Zhu Xiaotong, senior vice president of Tesla's automotive business and president of Greater China, replied to the question of when FSD supervised would land when he visited the store, and the reply was "soon".
In fact, the domestic tram market is in full swing, and there is no shortage of Tesla. On the contrary, the ups and downs of the Chinese market have a decisive impact on Tesla. Tesla, which has not had a new product for many years, seems to be waiting for FSD to enter China to create a wave of noise.
NO.1
[ Elon Musk's Year of Anxiety]
2024 is destined to be Musk's most anxious year in recent years.
In the first quarter of this year, Tesla's cumulative global deliveries were 387,000 units, down 8.5% year-on-year, the first year-on-year decline in Tesla's single-quarter deliveries in the past four years, and the worst sales performance in the past five quarters. Sales volume directly affects the stock market: since entering 2024, Tesla's stock price has fallen by nearly a third, and its market value has evaporated by more than $260 billion.
Tesla's global performance is poor because of the lack of strength in its two important markets:
Among them, the growth of the electric vehicle market in the United States has slowed down significantly. From January to March this year, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in the United States were 373,000, including 83,000 plug-in hybrids, a year-on-year increase of 44%, and 290,000 pure electric vehicles, an increase of only 7% year-on-year. Interestingly, foreign media put the pot of weak growth of pure electric vehicles in the United States back on Tesla's head, saying that "the growth rate of plug-in hybrid sales in the United States in 2024Q1 is significantly higher than that of pure electric vehicles, mainly because the overseas supply-side products are not rich enough, Tesla's product matrix is single, and there are no excellent products that can make up for the market after the aging of hot-selling models." “
As for why Tesla is also declining in the Chinese market, in addition to the aging of the same Tesla models, there are too many competing products and the market is too volatile.
In the first quarter of this year, Tesla's retail sales in China were about 132,400 units, a year-on-year decrease of 3.64%.
At the beginning of April, Tesla China officially announced the launch of a limited-time low-interest replacement policy for Model 3/Y models, and launched a preferential policy of "zero interest" installment purchase for the first time. In May, Tesla sold more than 55,000 vehicles in China, up 77% month-on-month and 29.9% year-on-year. However, on the whole, Tesla's domestic sales in 1-5 months still fell by 0.5%.
Last year, the price war in the Chinese market was provoked by Tesla, but this year Tesla passively joined the price war. And in order to cope with the war, the price policy has been adjusted: in January this year, the Model 3/Y rear-wheel drive version and the long-range version were reduced by 6,500 yuan to 15,500 yuan, and on February 1, less than a month after the official price reduction, Tesla once again announced that it would provide limited-time discounts. On March 1, Tesla officially announced a triple discount......
The direct result of the price reduction and volume guarantee is the decline in gross profit margin: Tesla's gross profit margin fell from 17.9 to 17.6% in the fourth quarter of 2023, falling below the healthy red line of 20%. In the first quarter of this year, the gross profit margin fell again to 17.4%.
Under the anxiety of profits, Tesla finally started a large-scale layoff campaign. According to foreign media reports, as of the end of June, its global number of employees (including temporary employees) has dropped to 121,000, which means that the company has laid off nearly 14% of its employees during the year. Tesla China has also laid off more than 10% of its workforce, and some departments have even reached 50%.
But a few days ago, a car blogger broke the news that Tesla is rehiring some of the employees who have just been laid off, and the employees who have been rehired will return N+3.
There are strange operations every year, and there are many of them this year. In addition to layoffs and rehiring, domestic sales broke the news that Tesla's Chinese stores also opened the "442" plan - 442 means that before sales leave the office, they must make 4 test drive plans, complete 4 test drives, and get 2 orders. And in order to complete this demanding plan, many stores have fraudulent orders.
The involution of the Chinese market has transformed Tesla, which is known for its strict management, and now Tesla is in dire need of a new car blood transfusion. The trouble is that this car is also going to skip tickets.
Musk has described building a $25,000 electric car as a dream of the company's founding. The Model 2, as Tesla's low-priced model, will be an important step in realizing this dream.
Moreover, Tesla is now in the middle of two waves of growth, with Musk believing that the first wave of growth is led by the Model 3 and Model Y, while the next wave is expected to be driven by the cheaper next-generation electric vehicle, the legendary cheaper version of the Model 2.
In order to reduce costs, the Model 2 will be produced on a new platform, which will be approximately 15% shorter in length, 30% lighter, and 25% less battery capacity than the Model 3. But such Model 2 seems to have been stillborn.
Since the beginning of this year, there have been rumors that Tesla has abandoned the production of cheap versions of electric cars. Because Tesla's difficulties in the development of the 4680 battery have not yet been solved, and Tesla's other car, the Cybertruke, has just climbed out of the production hell.
But soon Musk made the rumor public on Weibo.
According to a report by LatePost, Tesla has postponed its original new car plan, and will next launch another hatchback version of the car based on the Model Y. But this car is not an affordable car that Musk has claimed to have greatly improved from the battery to the body process and production methods, so as to achieve cost reduction.
If it is only a reduced version of the Model Y, instead of the Model 2 that Musk said will drive the "next wave of growth", then its significance for boosting Tesla's sales will be halved. Moreover, even if such a Model 2 can enter China next year, there is a question mark.
NO.2
[FSD, hope of the whole village]
Objectively speaking, Tesla still has a pivotal appeal in the electric vehicle market.
In May this year, the Model Y won the monthly SUV sales championship with 39,900 units. The second to fourth places were BYD's Yuan PLUS, Song Pro DM-i and Song PLUS DM-i, with corresponding sales of 24,164 units, 21,188 units and 19,903 units.
In addition, an industry expert said that after a series of terminal stimulus policies, Tesla's orders continued to pick up in June, and the weekly sales remained above 1W.
However, how long will the Model 3 and Model Y, which have been in service for 8 years and 5 years respectively, support between Musk's so-called "two waves"? We don't know yet. Compared to the Model 2, which has not yet been skimmed, FSD and Robotaxi are Tesla's nearest hopes.
Musk announced on April 6 that he would launch the long-promised Robotaxi on August 8. As soon as the news came out, Tesla's stock price surged nearly 4%, reversing a week's decline. Just the day after this news was announced, the domestic GAC and Didi officially announced that they would work together to mass-produce Robotaxi in 2025.
On May 8, according to China Daily, Tesla proposed to land "robotaxi" in China. In this regard, the Chinese government may first support its domestic testing and demonstration, but has not yet fully approved the full implementation of its FSD (Full-Self Driving) in China.
At Tesla's shareholders' meeting on June 14, in order to boost shareholders' confidence in the future, Musk spent more time sharing AI-related "ambitions" such as autonomous driving: such as the upcoming Robotaxi business and FSD V12.
He revealed that the business model of Robotaxi in the first phase will be similar to the combination of ride-hailing and car-sharing. The average cost of a ride per mile will drop to less than $0.18, while owners who join the Robotaxi fleet will make a profit of $30,000 per year, and Tesla will also get a cut of it.
Tesla Robotaxi that was exposed
However, all this is based on the implementation of FSD.
Now Tesla FSD has been updated to V12 version. Compared with FSD 11, FSD v12 uses end-to-end neural network technology, which can better understand and deal with complex driving environments, reduce driver intervention, and improve the accuracy and automation of autonomous driving. It is precisely because of the emergence of FSD v12 that the domestic intelligent driving industry is also following up on the "end-to-end".
Musk also said at the shareholders' meeting that FSD has also successively upgraded V12.3, V12.4, V12.5 and other versions, and V12.4 will be significantly improved compared to the previous version, and the performance between adjacent versions will be improved by up to 10 times.
He Xiaopeng (chairman of Xpeng Motors) did not hesitate to praise after experiencing FSD V12 in the United States, "Overall, Waymo performed better in downtown San Francisco, while FSD performed very well in Silicon Valley and at high speeds, and could achieve high scores, and many road conditions were handled silky." ”
He Xiaopeng experiences FSD in the United States
Since last year, Musk has frequently campaigned for the landing of FSD in China.
During Musk's 44-hour stay in China on June 1 last year, he met with Jin Zhuanglong, the minister of industry and information technology. The official source was succinct and to the point: "The two sides exchanged views on the development of new energy vehicles and intelligent networked vehicles. However, there is speculation that the main content of the negotiations between the two sides is likely to be related to Tesla's FSD entry into China.
After Musk's trip to Beijing during this year's Beijing Auto Show, another big news was released - Tesla may launch FSD full self-driving in China. Of course, among them, Tao Lin, Tesla's global vice president who is good at government relations, should also play a big role.
On April 28, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers issued the "Notice on the Testing of 4 Safety Requirements for Automotive Data Processing", in which a total of 6 car companies passed the data security test, including Tesla. Tesla is also the only foreign-owned car company that meets compliance requirements.
Tesla China also confirmed to reporters that the restrictions on the use of Tesla in various parts of the country have been lifted one after another.
NO.3
[ Final Thoughts ]
He Xiaopeng also said after experiencing FSD, "I believe that 2025 will be the moment of Chat GPT for full self-driving!" ”
Nowadays, the intelligent drivers who are conscientiously collecting data to train the system may have the same mood as He Xiaopeng, that is, they hope that high-end assisted driving can be accepted by more users, truly become the standard, and the era of full autonomous driving will come soon. And Tesla's FSD could be the catalyst for all of this.
Moreover, the attitude of friends towards Tesla's FSD entry into China has changed from last year's "fear and disobedience" to this year's hope to compete with Tesla.
In addition to He Xiaopeng, Xia Yiping (CEO of Jidu and CEO of Jiyue) also wrote to Tesla in the live video in the past two days, saying that his intelligent driving is the strongest on the surface, and the sense of experience will win.
Although Tesla's FSD mileage has exceeded 1 billion miles, the data collected is very huge, and once it lands, the impact on Huawei and Xpeng will be huge. But in general, the domestic intelligent driving market needs Tesla, a catfish, and Musk also needs the Chinese market to release Tesla's sales pressure and technical strength.