In early trading today, the liquor sector, which continues to adjust, staged a long-lost rebound, and the CSI liquor index rose more than 2%, what is the reason behind this? Can the liquor plate be bottomed out?
Let's first take a look at the reasons for the strength of the liquor sector today.
On the one hand, the wholesale reference price of Feitian Moutai has risen. The latest reference price disclosed by today's liquor price shows that the wholesale reference price of Feitian Moutai bulk bottles in 24 years has risen to 2,380 yuan from 2,310 yuan the previous day. The wholesale reference price of the original box rose from 2,530 yuan/bottle yesterday to 2,580 yuan/bottle, which indicates that the demand for high-end liquor is still strong, which may drive the market sentiment of the entire liquor sector.
On the other hand, the recent adjustment of the liquor sector is indeed very large. In the past month, the CSI 300 Index has fallen by nearly 3%, while the CSI Liquor Index has fallen by more than 14%. Judging from the various time periods in the past three years, the liquor sector has significantly underperformed the CSI 300 Index. With such a big adjustment, it is reasonable that there will be a certain over-falling rebound.
Why did the price of Feitian Moutai rebound?
This is undoubtedly closely related to the recent market strategy adjustment.
First of all, Moutai announced that it would stop the launch of 12 bottles of Feitian Moutai, a measure that directly reduced the market supply, thereby increasing the price in the relationship between supply and demand.
Secondly, the cancellation of the unboxing policy on Feitian Moutai may mean that consumers can more easily buy a full box of Moutai, increasing the liquidity and collectibility of the whole box of Moutai, thereby pushing up its price.
Finally, the suspension of shipments to 15-year-old Moutai and boutique Moutai further limited the market supply of high-end Moutai, increased scarcity, and thus raised its price.
In addition, as a representative of China's high-end liquor, Moutai's brand status and market influence are very significant.
By controlling the supply of products, Moutai can not only maintain the high-end image of products, but also curb speculation in the market to a certain extent and maintain price stability.
So the question is, the price of the liquor leader Moutai has stabilized, can the liquor sector get on the bus now?
From the perspective of valuation, the current price-earnings ratio of CSI liquor is 19.82, and the price-earnings ratio percentile is 8.37%, which is in a very undervalued position.
However, at the current point in time, Xiaocai needs to remind everyone of three points.
First of all, from the perspective of capital, the attitude of northbound funds is very important. Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye and other liquor leading stocks are northbound funds heavy stocks, the recent northbound funds to the outflow, last week (June 24-June 28), the overall northbound funds net outflow of 11.762 billion yuan. If you want the liquor sector to strengthen, you also need a significant inflow of northbound funds.
Secondly, from the perspective of the current situation of the industry, the price of Kweichow Moutai has been stabilized, a core factor is that Kweichow Moutai has scarcity and strong brand premium ability, and for liquor brands below the third and fourth lines, the competition is very fierce, in this context, the profitability of the third and fourth line liquor companies has been greatly tested.
Finally, from the perspective of future growth expectations, with the change of consumption habits and health awareness of the new generation of young consumers, they are more willing to choose fruit wine, beer or other beverages, which makes the market worry about the future performance growth of the liquor sector.
Therefore, Xiaocai believes that today's rebound in the liquor sector is caused by the rise in Moutai prices and the recent overfall, and the current valuation of the liquor sector is also at a low level, and there is an opportunity for an over-fall rebound, while northbound funds, industry differentiation and changes in young consumption habits have brought uncertainty to the future of the liquor industry.