A-shares were only traded for 2 days in July, but the stock market once again showed a trend of large market capitalization sectors rising and small market capitalization sectors falling, making the index rise and stock adjustment market from February, and coming again in July.
This shows that the current stock market, structural opportunities are obvious, and it is not yet a general rally.
In addition, with the turnover reduced to 640 billion yuan, the trend of long and short competition in the stock market began to rotate into a serious differentiation between stocks and stocks.
The stock market has seen a strong sector continued to be strong, and the falling sector continued to fall after the rebound, so that the Shanghai Composite Index in the first month of the second half of the year, there is still no comprehensive upward trend.
In other words, the high-dividend sector climbed in the first half of the year, and many investors hoped that the market in the second half of the year could make the confidence that the small market capitalization and hot topics could rise may be disappointed again. Will the market rise sharply in the future?
On the evening of July 2, I just saw 2 news come out
Message 1,
In the first half of the year, the total market value of A-shares decreased by 2.76 trillion yuan compared with the end of 2023, indicating that although the Shanghai Index maintained strong fluctuations, the overall market value of the stock market still did not increase.
In the second half of 2023, after the market value decreased by more than 6 trillion yuan, it is still shrinking in the first half of this year.
In addition, in the first half of the year, compared with 2023, the two financial institutions will decrease by more than 160 billion yuan, but northbound funds still increased their holdings by 38.5 billion yuan.
In this way, A-shares have been fully exchanged in the first half of the year, and there may be hope that institutional investors will increase their positions in the future to promote the structural upward trend of the stock market.
Peony believes that the market in the second half of the year, after institutional investors continue to increase their positions, the overall atmosphere is expected to continue the style of the first half of the year, starting the large-capitalization sector climbing, the Shanghai Index rising, and the gem maintaining a sideways market.
Message 2,
There are 2 more companies with a closing price of less than 1 yuan, which is likely to touch the risk of delisting at par value. ST Jiyao and ST Zhongrun announced that the stock price was lower than 1 yuan for the first time, and if it continued to fall, there was a risk of terminating the listing later.
As of the end of June, 11 A-share companies have been delisted this year, many of which are delisted at a face value of 1 yuan.
If the stock market still does not maintain a turnover of more than 700 billion yuan, many stocks may have the risk of liquidity drying up, and the number of companies delisted at face value will increase later.
At present, there are 15 listed companies with a share price of less than 1 yuan, and 179 stocks below 2 yuan.
The reason for this is that this year's A-share market started with the rise of the Shanghai Composite Index, and many stocks hit new lows, indicating that the turnover of the stock market can no longer meet the general rise of all stocks.
In addition, A-shares are in the institutional investors group, urging the bull market in some sectors, and the overall market will show an increase in the number of penny stocks, and stocks with large market capitalization will rise at a higher level.
Will it fall tomorrow or start a big rise?
From the analysis of news 1, the total market value of A-shares is decreasing, indicating that some sectors and stocks are continuing to fall.
While large-cap sectors are on the rise, and high-dividend stocks are continuing the bull market, they don't add much to the stock market. It can be seen that in the first half of the year, many stocks in the A-share market were down.
News 2 shows that the number of companies delisted at par value is increasing, and if the stock market still maintains a turnover of 700 billion yuan, perhaps the number of companies delisted at face value will continue to increase.
Especially after July, the stock market is still rising in the high-dividend sector, so it seems that this year's stock market in the second half of the year, it is likely that only 3 percent of the stocks are rising.
Peony expects that tomorrow will still be the trend of the Shanghai Composite Index rising and the GEM falling. To start the big rise in the stock market, when the current turnover is sluggish, it will have to be postponed again.
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